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amarynth
KeymasterI received this from our Group of Friends, and it is titled Controversy Emerging. This is not my field or my bag.
I am aware of various critiques of Professor Ted Postol’s comments about the Oreshnik missile. I for one have no animosity towards him, but Andrei Martyanov was a bit bad tempered about his remarks. Martyanov referred to a short commentary in Russian and said that one did not need to speak Russian to understand this, but I for one found that the speaker swallowed his words, and I struggled to make sense of it. I shall try to find time to return to this, but it seems to be the case that Professor Postol does not know what a Coulomb explosion is. The answer can be found in Wikipedia. I can well believe that Putin is right that two of these missiles on the same target would give an explosion that equalled a nuclear one.
The account that I read of the impact of the original Oreshnik attack on Dnipro was that it created a precise rectangular crater four stories deep on the target. That suggests that the 36 warheads spread out in a precise pattern in a manner similar to the barometric MLRS system known as Solntsepyok. [The latter is usually referred to in English by its other designation TS… with a number that I have forgotten offhand.]
Here is a recent comment by a Russian:
S, 25 Jan 2026:
Prof Ted Postol is not a chemist
I freely admit I have my biases with regards to Oreshnik, after all I wrote a highly detailed, inference-driven hypothesis on what I believe the warhead to be (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/116233) (specifically, a tungsten-aluminium based energetic structural material, with the possible addition of an oxidizer, a possible candidate I suggested being potassium chlorate – KClO3). As the author of that hypothesis, I am invested in eventually seeing images or other data which proves or disproves it (preferably the former).
Therefore, in the absence of new hard data, anything I say – beyond what I already did in my previous articles – must be firmly grounded in scientific rules and laws of physics or chemistry which are well established, will never change and cannot be disputed. Engaging in any more inference deduction logic than I already have would take me firmly into magic carpet territory, and I might as well just start writing science fiction about the 3I/ATLAS comet being a spaceship piloted by alien furries…
What am I talking about and what does Ted Postol have to do with it? Well, last week he gave almost identical interviews to Mr Glenn Dieson and also Col Daniel Davis, where he described his updated views on how the Oreshnik system works.
Given his credentials and his audience and also my limited time, I will not nitpick the entire thing as much as I would like to – however one thing he said stuck out like a sore thumb to me, because it went squarely against hard scientific facts.
In a major departure from his 2024 assessment claiming the munitions were stainless steel dummies, Postol speculated that Oreshnik munitions were likely made with tungsten and also mentioned aluminium (though he made no mention of ESMs, nor did he go into any level of detail). Anyone who read my articles knows that I agree with this, except for what he said next – he said the munitions likely included a quantity of TNT. Why? Because, he claimed, TNT when detonated produces “lots of oxygen”.
I want to be clear – A TNT detonation does NOT produce any free oxygen (O₂) or any other oxidizer gas/molecule as a product. The balanced equation for TNT detonation shows its primary products are:
2 C₇H₅N₃O₆ → 3 N₂ + 5 H₂O + 7 CO + 7 C
I am not going to speculate on Prof. Postol’s reasons for saying what he did. During his talks he also stated that he is “not a chemist”. His claim that a TNT explosion produces oxygen proves that he is indeed not a chemist. It also calls into question the rest of his discussion.
As I said I am highly pressed for time, so I invite all technically-minded Slavyangrad readers to have a listen to Prof. Postol’s recent interviews or read through the transcripts. I am interested to know whether his gaffe about TNT or any other high explosive making oxygen when it goes boom is an isolated error, or one of many. [end.]
amarynth
KeymasterWhat a fight in the US. And the ‘leaders’ keep saying the wrong things. Kash Patel: “You cannot bring a firearm, loaded, with multiple magazines to any sort of protest that you want. It’s that simple”
People responded:


amarynth
KeymasterWill Schryver
@imetatronink
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6h
📈 ParabolicThe only chart gone more parabolic than gold and silver is the one tracking the claimed number of Iranians “slaughtered by the Mullahs”.
As though the empire needs a pretext for war. 🤦♂️
It’s long-since arrived at the stage where it’s “All War, All the Time”.
amarynth
KeymasterThe Marinera (Bela1) is still anchored where it was seized and the crew is still on board. How strange.
amarynth
Keymasteramarynth
Keymaster🤔 Possible Iran Air Strike Scenario
If indeed the US/Israel plan to do "something" in the form of major air strikes against Iran that goes beyond launching Tomahawk cruise missiles, I doubt they will attempt an assassination of Khamenei, nor any strikes deep in Iran. I simply… pic.twitter.com/QtKXoHz7Qv
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) January 25, 2026Full X text:
Possible Iran Air Strike Scenario
If indeed the US/Israel plan to do “something” in the form of major air strikes against Iran that goes beyond launching Tomahawk cruise missiles, I doubt they will attempt an assassination of Khamenei, nor any strikes deep in Iran. I simply don’t believe they can execute such an ambitious attack, and the more time spent flying over Iran increases the risk of aircraft getting shot down.
I think the most likely target(s) for US carrier-based strikes would be the oil terminal at Kharg Island and the port facilities at Bandar Abbas.
In both cases, they would likely park CSG-3 off the coast of Oman (south of the US logistics base at Duqm) and do aerial refueling over the UAE and Iraq or Kuwait.
I reckon they could very likely execute such a strike without losing aircraft — but, of course, they will likewise not meaningfully degrade Iranian counterstrike capability. So then we’ll have the fireworks of a major Iranian attack against US bases in the region — not to mention a serious attempt to strike the carrier and its destroyer escorts.
Anyway, these are just my passing thoughts now that the likelihood of a US/Israeli strike seems to be rising.
If nothing happens within 24 – 48 hours, then I think the likelihood of nothing at all happening increases exponentially.
amarynth
KeymasterThat is typical of Greenwald. He is a rightwinger and has done serious harm in Brazil. And where are the children that he and his husband adopted in Brazil before the husband died? Boy kids?
He will never answer a question. He will just allude to stuff.
I mean, we can make a list of the possible why issues – pick one.
IDF-ICE-BROWNSHIRTS-BLACKSHIRTS-DAESH-ISIS-ZIONAZIS
No Epstein files and no mid-term elections. There is not a wager on Polymarket on this as yet. I think it is not necessary in the eyes of Trump and Co .. as they are using their BoP (Board of Peace) to replace rules and laws within the US.
amarynth
KeymasterAah thanks .. I was just coming here having had in my mind for a few hours now .. where is the freckled lady, and also the one that speaks delicious Southern?
amarynth
KeymasterThe border Barbie writes letters:
Pam Bondi did send a letter to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, tying ICE cooperation to broader federal demands, including access to Minnesota’s voter rolls.
“Third, allow the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice to access voter rolls to confirm that Minnesota’s voter registration practices comply with federal law as authorized by the Civil Rights Act of 1960. Fulfilling this common sense request will better guarantee free and fair elections and boost confidence in the rule of law.
I am confident that these simple steps will help bring back law and order to Minnesota and improve the lives of Americans.”

amarynth
KeymasterAlso, to tie in with MrP – the word domestic terrorist. That poor guy was shot to death for no reason. But the machine of lies is active now …
I wonder if people are already putting wagers on .. will there be a midterm election?
amarynth
Keymaster‼️ The USS Fraidy Abe Keeps Its Distance
There are still no reports that CSG-3 (USS Abraham Lincoln CVN-72) has entered the CENTCOM AOR. This can only mean it is deliberately remaining well outside of Iranian missile range.
This is exactly what both CSG-3 and CSG-9 (USS… https://t.co/TesHq7aX4V
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) January 24, 2026
amarynth
KeymasterIsraeli media reports on support and opposition regarding an attack on Iran.
🔴 In favor: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Britain
🔴 Opponents: Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar
amarynth
KeymasterThe man killed by federal agents in Minneapolis today has been identified as Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a 37-year-old American citizen and former US Air Force veteran who worked as a nurse.
And they say the protestors are now biting off the fingers of ICE agents.


amarynth
KeymasterThere are a bunch of videos – I cannot easily figure out what happened, but what is clear, is that there are six of them piled on the guy before shot or shots.
Seems the border patrol is taking this as their shot. “‘Our agents’ used ‘justifiable force in eliminating the threat’
— US Border Patrol UnionSlams ‘dishonest media’ and ‘shameless politicians’ for ‘hate-filled and false rhetoric’
‘Agents are trained extremely well to protect themselves and innocent third parties’
amarynth
Keymaster
Once in a lifetime shot: -
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