OK, I’m on weapons and have searched a gazillion of weapons transfer databases. Then though — aah stupid, let the AI do the searches. So, that’s done.

But, there is not so much – tanks, planes, helicopters and AK’s and Venezuela has an AK production faciity. I stuck in a 10 year window.

Major Russian Arms Deliveries to Venezuela (2014-2024)

The following are confirmed deliveries and ongoing support, rather than new large-scale purchases.

Air Defense Systems:

SA-17 BUK-M2E (9A317E) Surface-to-Air Missile Systems: Deliveries and integration were completed in the early-to-mid 2010s, but ongoing maintenance, technical support, and possible ammunition refreshers have likely continued throughout the past decade.

S-300VM (Antey-2500) Surface-to-Air Missile Systems: These were ordered in 2013. While the major components were likely delivered just before our 10-year window, the system’s activation, crew training, and technical support have been a continuous process involving Russian specialists.

Main Battle Tanks:

T-72B1M Main Battle Tanks: A batch of these was delivered around 2019-2020. This is one of the most significant new hardware deliveries within the 10-year timeframe.

Small Arms and Light Weapons (Ongoing):

The AK-103 Assault Rifle: Venezuela has a licensed factory to produce these rifles (located in Maracay). While the initial license and machinery were set up in the 2000s, the flow of parts, technical expertise, and potential kits from Russia to keep this factory operational has almost certainly continued throughout the past decade. There is also a npot yet completed ammunition factory for these weapons.

Maintenance, Upgrades, and Technical Support:
This is arguably the most significant form of “provision” in the last 10 years. Venezuela’s existing Russian-made hardware requires constant support. This includes:

Spare parts for Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighters, Mil Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, and other legacy systems.

Technical assistance and training from Russian teams on the ground in Venezuela.

Weapons and Ammunition: Refreshing stocks of missiles, rockets, and ammunition for the existing fleet of aircraft, helicopters, and air defense systems.

Why the Slowdown?

Venezuela’s Economic Collapse: The country has lacked the hard currency to make major new arms purchases.

International Sanctions: U.S. and other sanctions have made financial transactions for arms deals extremely difficult and risky.

Focus on Sustainment: With a large but aging Russian-made inventory, Venezuela’s priority has shifted from buying new equipment to maintaining what it already has, which keeps Russian military advisors and technicians involved.

So, that is what we have.

My guess is that they are after Maduro for regime change and a grab of the Essequibo oil fields.  It will be easier said than done, as Maduro’s police and soldiers love him and will defend him fiercely.  This is not their first rodeo.  But we have to wait.  There have to be plans to safeguard Maduro.

I have reviewed all the information now, as well as what I needed to check out from the regional CELAC agreement regarding a Zone of Peace.  I can understand that there is hesitation or a non-acceptance of the concept, but these countries generally live in peace.  What I specifically needed to verify was the agreement regarding their statements about external attacks.  The answer is that this is an internal agreement between+- 33 countries.  Externalities are not documented.

Just to recap this thing a little … It was good for the region, and they did not fight one another.  Border differences were resolved, and we know that the countries did not engage in conflict or attack one another. The CELAC agreement was signed in 2014, so it has been in effect for several years.  The only border problem is the one between Venezuela and Guyana – on Essequibo, and that is not a Guyana problem, but it is fanned by the major gas companies and their cronies and countries.  So, the agreement did away and made ineffective the previous Monroe Doctrine Boss, the OAS, Organization of American States.  CELAC kinda killed that one, agreed between the LAC countries.

Conceptually, it was a positive development, and the only border issue that remains is the Essequibo one.  A long story, but it belongs to Venezuela – more than 100 years old agreements from old colonial times.   So Guyana was used (British influence) to deny and mess, and as usual, lawfare the thing.  It is still sitting in some court or another, and the de facto control is even disputed.  It is an area as big as Florida with much oil and certainly other riches, very sparsely populated.  The dispute has been ongoing with the first international tribunal in 1899.  Fascinating history if one is into stuff like that.

At the time, Venezuela was a young country, less than nine decades old. It was represented by the United States, then an ally, during the proceedings. Guyana, still a colony, was backed by the United Kingdom.

A Russian judge, appointed as a neutral arbitrator, ultimately ruled in favour of British Guyana — a verdict Venezuela has never accepted, alleging it was rigged.  Over the past few years, Venezuela has attempted to make peace and reach an agreement through CELAC on multiple occasions, but the issue of oil and its influence on Guyana has been the obstacle.

So besides that one, the concept of Zone of Peace worked for the region.  If we compare with say the Middle East or West Asia, it was something that people treasured and it worked.   It is integrated with UN international law, looks exactly like multipolarity and in short;

Proclamation of Latin America and the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace (Original signed by the Heads of State and Government of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States)

The Heads of State and Government of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) gathered in Havana, Cuba on January 28 and 29, 2014 at the Second Summit, on behalf of their peoples and faithfully interpreting their hopes and aspirations,

Declare:

1. Latin America and the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace based on respect for the principles and rules of International Law, including the international instruments to which Member States are a party to, the Principles and Purposes of the United Nations Charter;

2. Our permanent commitment to solve disputes through peaceful means with the aim of uprooting forever threat or use of force in our region;

3.  The commitment of the States of the region with their strict obligation not to intervene, directly or indirectly, in the internal affairs of any other State and observe the principles of national sovereignty, equal rights and self-determination of peoples;

4. The commitment of the peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean to foster cooperation and friendly relations among themselves and with other nations irrespective of differences in their political, economic, and social systems or development levels; to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbors;

5. The commitment of the Latin American and Caribbean  States to fully respect the inalienable right of every State to choose its political, economic, social, and cultural  system, as an essential condition to ensure peaceful coexistence among nations;

6. The promotion in the region of a culture of peace based, inter alia, on the principles of the United Nations Declaration on a Culture of Peace;

7. The commitment of the States in the region to guide themselves by this Declaration in their international behavior;

8. The commitment of the States of the region to continue promoting nuclear disarmament as a priority objective and to contribute with general and complete disarmament, to foster the strengthening of confidence among nations.

So, I am not advocating.  All I am saying is that for a good number of years, this concept worked, and it is very active as a rule of thumb in the region to this day.  There are very few regions in our world that can boast of such a successful agreement.

I often muse on whether such an agreement could exist in the West Asian countries, and how it would not allow for the existence of a genocide.

Hi Mr P,

Doing a bit of research and this question is questionable to ask of my weapons and war expert source.

What are the best statistics that you have available for the Oreshnik.  OK, I understand it is novel, so we will be short of hard data.  I have a bunch, mainly from Sputnik, surprisingly.   This is an example:  https://sputnikglobe.com/20250505/russias-oreshnik-missile-how-far-it-can-reach—1121985587.html

I’m searching for something more in depth .. i.e., how heavy is the missile?  is it only from a fixed launcher, or can I push it around in a cart and shoot from where-ever?  And with what launcher if I wanted to do that?  What is it best suited for?  Yeah, I know ground based targets but can we shoot it into a ship and why would we do that?  there are better ones for this purpose yes? no?   The temperature that it reaches as it hits a target is quite staggering –

I’m looking into what missiles Venezuela has available from Iran.  Now the nuance in the region is that it is and will remain a Zone of Peace, and non-nuclear.  So, the Oreshnik can be loaded with nuclear warheads.  And we have a similar situation as with Iran where by religiously they do not stand for weapons of mass destruction.  For the LAC region, China is strongly supporting the concept of a Zone of Peace and on the basis of that standing strongly for Venezuela and the region.  .

Do you perhaps have stats hidden somewhere?   I have a whole bunch of questions but not a direction yet.  The assumption (more than an assumption really) is that the Zone of Peace does not want these types of weapons as they do not want to use them, similar to Iran.  Once I have my own mind cleared a bit, I can approach some expert, both on the missile as well as check clearly what the Zone of Peace means.  Venezuela has now asked for UN support – again on the basis of being threatened while in a Zone of Peace.

Sorry if this still sounds mucky .. it is.

It may be that the hope is for such disorder to develop in the US that the institutions will be constrained by “domestic” and financial trouble.

Yes, I think there is a lot of buying time – kinda don’t interrupt when the enemy is hurting itself.    And yes, the Oreshnik is the nuke killer.  The Oreshnik is also a missile that may not be suitable for Venezuela.  I don’t know the whole range well enough to say, and perhaps they have sufficient of the Iranian goodies or a continuous supply is organized.

But, we have time to wait, and I’d rather wait for more ground under the feet than speculate.   I still don’t see any ships coming over the horizon toward Venezuela.  This all may also be a pretense and I’m keeping a gap in my head for that lol.   So far, the US has not taken Greenland or the Panama Canal or whatever else they wanted.

Grandpa Lukashenko says that a lot is being discussed, and not to get too excited.

Today Trump was bloviating again that there may be weapons treaties being discussed.

Lots happening MrP and we’re in such a different world.   Today China threatened the US that they may have to change their stance in the South China Seas, and perhaps all of the seas of the world.

But that was the issue – the Jupiter missiles that were a threat got removed from Turkey.

So, it was a matter of .. if you can put yours in Turkey and it is a threat to us, we can put ours in Cuba and it will be a threat to you.

A situation like this does not exist in terms of Venezuela now. (I’m talking present time .. future is something else).

Miss Hazel to vacation zone V…https://youtu.be/yRHlLCh6dQc  Putin To Place Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile In U.S.’ Backyard As Trump Sends Warships To Venezuela? “Two can play at that game, soldier!” (General Ripper)

This stuff must be eaten with a sack of salt.  They say this is reported by the Mehr news agency (Iranian press).   It is only chatter, and speculation based on more chatter and speculation with no basis at all.  https://en.mehrnews.com/news/235060/Russia-eyes-Venezuela-for-deployment-of-Oreshnik-missiles

There is no diplomatic reason at all for such a move.  There is no reason why Russia should put offensive weaponry where there is not an overt threat to them.  They may bring in defensive – but Iran has that covered.

(Future may change things).