Latest article by Aleks from BMA:
“Geopolitics Update [i]”

https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/geopolitics-update

Forwarded from Colonelcassad:
To briefly assess the current situation with the war in Palestine, then:

1. Hamas is winning at the tactical level.
2. Israel is making progress at the operational level.
3. Iran wins in grand strategy.

What problems did the IDF encounter after the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip: analysis of the Military Chronicle

As the Israeli Ground Forces advance deeper into the neighborhoods of the Gaza Strip, problems are revealed that the IDF, apparently, was not ready to solve initially.

How is Israel’s ground operation going?
In general, the pace of IDF combat operations inside Gaza Strip neighborhoods remains low. As we reported earlier, the emphasis is definitely on preserving the lives of soldiers, but at the same time there are difficulties both at the tactical level of command and control and at the operational level when planning further actions. The strategic intent of the operation remains the same: in the first phase of the ground operation, the IDF seeks to cut off the northern areas of Gaza – Jabaliya, Zeitoun, Al-Shati, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya – from the southern part of the enclave. However, as the plan is implemented, features appear that may prevent the operation from being carried out with minimal losses.

Which?
The IDF says Israeli forces have cut off Gaza City and northern areas from southern neighborhoods, but clearing the inner-city areas appears unlikely at this time. First of all, this is influenced by the tactics of using IDF armored vehicles – Israeli troops use Merkava Mk.4 tanks and Namer armored personnel carriers in isolation from the infantry. This allows the Palestinians to target vehicles with RPGs and homemade bombs. This led to the fact that in less than a month of fighting, the IDF could lose from 30 to 45 units of heavy equipment, which has never happened before in recent history. At the same time, the tactics of the IDF infantry units do not change and gradually entail an increase in losses: ground troops do not move forward without the cover of armored vehicles, but the equipment also cannot act in isolation from the infantry, since it immediately comes under fire from Palestinians with RPGs. As we move deeper into the neighborhoods, the situation worsens: if the defeat of Israeli equipment on the Al-Rashid coastal highway can still be attributed to inexperienced crews and the lack of situational awareness systems, then in dense urban areas, crews of tanks and armored personnel carriers cannot view the terrain more than 50-100 m This gives Hamas an advantage and allows it to hit armored vehicles at close range – 20-50 m.

What conclusions can be drawn?
First, there is currently no alternative to the IDF advancing inside urban areas. Air strikes do not bring the desired effect. Secondly, the current number of Israeli troops may not be enough to clear all city blocks, since the full implementation of all tasks may require several hundred units of heavy equipment at a time, and to advance according to previously announced plans, several thousand tanks and armored personnel carriers may be required. The accumulation of such a quantity of equipment on narrow city streets could lead to even greater losses than now, after which the IDF generals and the country’s political leadership could find themselves at the fork in the road of two equally serious decisions: either curtail the operation in urban areas, or continue (and possibly expand her), neglecting losses.

FIVE SIGNS OF A HAMAS VICTORY:
https://m.tsargrad.tv/articles/beshenstvo-i-konec-izrailja-pjat-priznakov-pobedy-hamas_898296
The Palestinian movement “Hamas”, regardless of the outcome of the crisis around Gaza, won five victories over Israel in October 2023. They mean that in the twenty-first century in the Middle East, this state will disappear and is unlikely to reappear anywhere. Which even … most Jews will be happy about.

An unexpected bloody attack – without tanks, cannons, guns, ships, one might say, light – by Hamas on Israel from the Gaza Strip, which was turned into a huge ghetto by the Israelis, can only at first glance be considered madness and adventure. Of course, it is not possible for Hamas to defeat the IDF on the battlefield, and it certainly did not set such a goal. The goal was different-regardless of their own losses, to deal a terrible blow to the security of Israel and the psychology of its Jewish population.

Hamas, of course, quite deliberately (and this, it seems, was the main goal, the super-goal of the operation) awakened the beast in the Israelis and drove Israel, which pretends to be a democracy, crazy with its cruelty. He forced the Israelis, who were enraged by the kibbutz massacre and were used to losing 1: 100 in their conflicts with the Arabs, to open up, revealing to the whole world their most disgusting features: cruelty, vindictiveness, racism, self-obsession.

And here is an example, this is what the oldest IDF reservist, 95-year-old Ezra Yahin, said when he was assigned to guide and inspire the soldiers of the Israeli army.:
“Defeat and finish off the Arabs without leaving anyone behind. Destroy them, their families, mothers and children. These animals can no longer live. Every Jew with a gun must go out and kill them. If you have an Arab neighbor, don’t wait, go to his house and shoot him.”

What used to be seen mainly by Palestinians, experiencing all the “charms” of the Israeli occupation and the apartheid regime, is now seen with horror and concentration by the whole world: footage of the civilian buildings of Gaza being destroyed by Israel, corpses of women and children being pulled out from under the ruins, attacks on supermarkets with empty shelves, hospitals and even churches, how people are starved and thirsty, deprived of medicines, turn off the light, the Internet…

In this terrible context, Israelis are now called fascists and Nazis, and the Palestinians of Gaza are called fighters who, being weaker than Israel, which deprived them of their state promised by the UN, are forced to use guerrilla tactics from the Second World War. The comparison of Israelis with Germans, Zionists with Nazis, and Palestinians, who in Israel (and these are still the mildest characteristics) and in some places in the world are called terrorists, literally suggests itself – with anti-fascist partisans.

This whole situation is one-to-one for Israel, which is a foreign body in the Middle East, a Jewish colonial enterprise that was and remains Zionism, which is condemned even by some orthodox Jews. The slogan of the Zionist creators of Israel in the middle of the last century: “to a people without land – a land without people” – was originally an application and invitation to the genocide of the Palestinians, a denial of their human dignity, which is not forgiven.

The question was and will continue to be either – or. And the two-state theory (which is supported not only by Russia, but also by Biden’s United States), after all that has happened – is a means to end Israel in the Middle East in two stages. First, the Israelis will have to give up part of their current territory to the Palestinians, and then, when the remaining “stump” becomes completely unviable, so it will.

Hostility to Sabra Jews will not decrease. The Palestinians’ birth rate is very high, and they will soon have few concessions made. And they, like, for example, the Iranians, do not see any logic in the fact that for the Jewish genocide in Western countries (not only Germany was soiled by this), Europeans and Americans gave Jews Arab lands, where they created their own semi-fascist regime, introduced the apartheid system.

Many Israelis, especially supporters of the current prime minister, who will finally have to leave, have already realized this. Their frenzied reaction to recent events shows that they seem to have seen this as an inevitability. This is often the behavior of people who have been told that they are terminally ill, who themselves have finally understood this, but do not want to accept this diagnosis without a murmur, they want to do something urgently, even with a scanty hope of success. Israel appeared to the whole world “in all its glory” as a terrorist state, which is especially scary and dangerous given the presence of nuclear weapons and the bloodthirsty mood among the almost universally armed Jewish population.

What has Hamas achieved?
First, it exposed Israel’s cannibalistic nature. The world recalled the thoroughly forgotten UN General Assembly Resolution 3379 “Elimination of all forms of racial discrimination”, adopted in 1975 and repealed in December 1991 – ten days before the formal liquidation of the USSR, which is not, of course, a coincidence. This resolution placed Israel on a par with States that practice apartheid, such as South Africa and Rhodesia, and declared Zionism a form of racism and racial discrimination. Similar resolutions have been adopted by various UN specialized agencies. Soviet cartoons about Israel’s violation of the rights of Palestinians have now found a second life.

Second, Hamas has put the West in an extremely uncomfortable position. It has forced, on the one hand, to hypocritically turn a blind eye to what is happening because of the notorious solidarity, to ban protest actions in their countries, which often does not work, and, on the other hand, to hold Netanyahu’s hands, preventing him from unleashing an even bloodier massacre in Gaza. The “carousel” of Western leaders in Tel Aviv means exactly that. Especially their demands to comply with the laws of war and humanitarian law.

They absolutely do not want Israel, which they cover up, to compromise the West with its openly Nazi practices. It seems to have become obvious to Western capitals that the harms outweigh the benefits that the existence of Israel might represent to them.

Third, what is happening – not to mention a possible ground operation by the IDF in Gaza-terribly discredits the West in the eyes of Arab countries and Muslims, splits their own societies in Western countries and threatens to transfer the terrorist war from the Middle East to their homes, where millions of Arabs and Muslims in general have settled for some time, who already reject it. Western “values” and sympathize with the Palestinians.

Fourth, Israeli psychosis and the Gaza genocide have already made life a nightmare for Jews outside of Israel. We are talking about millions of people watching in horror as the clouds of anti-Semitism gather over them, and the air reeks of pogroms and acts of terrorism. The brutal murder of a female rabbi in Detroit, the events in Dagestan, the campaign of intimidation and harassment of the Jewish community in Germany-all this is terribly poisoning life and is a real threat to Jews.

And why all this? Because Zionists, a marginal phenomenon in the Jewish community, these stubborn nationalists, want to continue to be racists in the twenty-first century, interfering with the life and prosperity of others. This is a signal and an invitation to the Jews of the Diaspora not to delay in liquidating their once-dead outpost in the Middle East.

Fifth, Hamas managed to make its struggle for Palestine part of the “war between the cross and the crescent”, to use the words of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke at the “great Palestinian rally”, which was attended by up to 2 million people. A war of civilizations involving the West on the side of Israel is completely unnecessary for the former.

There are 430 million Arabs and almost 2 billion Muslims in the world. Israel has a maximum population of 9 million, with a quarter of them non-Jews, mostly Palestinians. In total, there are 16 million Jews in the world, half of whom, as we can see, do not live in Israel. Westerners are good at counting, and it seems that they have already drawn conclusions…

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/207835/General-Petraeus-meeting-with-Zionists-audio-file-disclosed
Mehr News Agency has obtained a highly confidential audio file about the Gaza war. In this confidential file, David Petraeus, the retired general of the US Army, presents his suggestions for the victory of the Israeli regime in the war against Gaza in a closed and confidential meeting with the American and Israeli political-military elites. Aviv Kohavi, former Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli regime, is also present in this secret meeting.

In this meeting, General Petraeus proposed the failed US strategies in Iraq and Afghanistan as a solution for the people of Gaza. By occupying Afghanistan in 2001, the US promised a better life to the Afghan people but after 20 years, it fled from Afghanistan in total disgrace. “Terror”, “poverty” and “displacement” are the sinister legacy of 20 years of the US occupation of Afghanistan.

In this audio file, General Petraeus clearly points to the deliberate killing of Palestinian women and children by the Israeli regime, while trying to justify this crime. He also suggests the strategy of exploding residential buildings, the same strategy that has so far resulted in the martyrdom of nearly 9,000 Palestinian civilians, including 3,500 children. In order to justify the brutal killing of the Palestinian people, the US general also proposed the rebuilding of Gaza by the Zionists to restore the Israeli regime’s image. This is the same deceptive strategy that the Americans tried to use to justify the killing of the people of Iraq and Afghanistan, but the result of this strategy has been the instability of the region, the poverty of the countries involved in the American occupation, and the death of millions of innocent people.
In this meeting, Petraeus also admits that the US strategy regarding the occupation of Iraq was stupid, but he proposes the stupid and failed strategy to be used in Gaza.

Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah: ‘On the Lebanese Front, All Options are on the Table’ –
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/hezbollah-leader-nasrallah-on-the-lebanese-front-all-options-are-on-the-table-video/
The Context:
“You and the entire world are well acquainted with the suffering of the Palestinian people for more than 75 years,” Nasrallah said, adding that “the extremist government escalated arbitrary measures against prisoners,” further deteriorating the humanitarian situation.
“More than two million people are living in Gaza experiencing difficult conditions,” he said, noting how the world did not act to put an end to this suffering.
Nasrallah also pointed to the expansionist policies carried out by the Israeli government throughout the occupied West Bank.

The US Role:
Nasrallah said that the Biden administration “hurried (to send) its President, secretaries, and generals,” to make sure that the Israeli occupation survived the aftermath of the operation, allowing it to “stand back up” after suffering a huge blow on October 7.
However, he noticed how Israel “has still not been able to regain the initiative.” Moreover, the Hezbollah leader questioned Israel’s ability to sustain its existence, considering that it asked $10 billion in aid from the US on the first day of confrontations.
Israel is not able to “stand on its feet”, according to Nasrallah, considering the high number of US military officials that headed to Tel Aviv to assist Israel and the large number of weapons that were sent.

“One of the biggest mistakes that the Israelis made and they continue is setting far-reaching objectives that they cannot achieve or reach,” Nasrallah said, comparing the Israeli goal of eliminating Hamas to their goal of “crushing the Resistance in Lebanon” in 2006 and retrieving the two abducted Israeli prisoners, “without engaging in negotiations or [prisoners] exchange.”
“America is entirely responsible for the ongoing war on Gaza and its people, and Israel is simply a tool of execution,” Nasrallah said, adding that the US “impedes a ceasefire and the end of the aggression.”

https://www.palestinechronicle.com/hezbollah-ultimatum-ceasefire-on-november-3-or-full-mobilization-for-war/
“Leader of the Lebanese Resistance movement Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has given an ultimatum to the United States through mediators, demanding an end to the Israeli war on Gaza by November 3, Kuwait-based Al-Jarida newspaper reported, citing Iranian diplomatic sources.
According to the sources, if the US fails to meet this demand, in his Friday televised address, Sheikh Nasrullah will announce “a general mobilization (…) for war with Israel and will launch military operations against Israel from all directions.”

Al-Jarida noted that Nasrallah agreed to the ultimatum with Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, who arrived in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Tuesday.
According to Al-Jarida’s sources, General Qaani stated earlier at a meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that Tehran’s regional allies might lose popular support if they failed “to join the fight to support the Palestinian people.”

the empire of bases
will now begin to slowly
get an understanding of
the real meaning of chaos