While the French have every reason to riot, I hear there are rioters grouped around social justice and rioters grouped around far right causes. Both are acting now. Further, there are pictures on twitter of pallets of empty stacked bottles left in the middle of streets. We have seen this in the US. Obviously, these groups are getting some funding and support. I see no one more likely to benefit from all this than the USA and UK. In a tweet, Bukele called it “controlled demolition.” France is being sacrificed for the Euro dollar, which is more important than the petro-dollar.

Yes, interesting visitors to Moscow. Also note that Kushner was uninvited but Ratclife was allowed to come.

Who they allow to come signals who they want there to understand the message they want to give.

And to Periol’s point, Canada is reducing oil exports not to join the global south but to squeeze the world with an oil shortage, that’s part of the US game plan to re-impoverish EU and ASEAN.

Yes, Larry, Pepe, etc. keep saying that when the US petroleum reserves hit bottom in August that create real political pressure. Aside from the types of crude and that US crude is good fro gasoline which is what matters politically in the short term, other issues make this complex. Any of the china commentators have been saying that China has been using its oil reserves and essentially ended imports except overland. This has prevented a major source of goods inflation and also taken 5mbl/d in normal consumption out of the market. Finally, politically, the US has many options including stopping exports of its own oil.

So much of the commentary on US pressure due to the straits being closed just focuses on US reserves and ignores that all major countries have these reserves and for exactly this reason and ignores that politically the US has many options at least to keep things going well domestically until the mid-terms.

Excellent commodity and AI commentary here. Thanks Periol

I know much of alt media is saying that Trump is an idiot and has made a huge mistake in Iran. Yes, that could be true. Of course, much of alt media pointed out that Ukraine was a mistake. And it continues to be one, but it also has the support of the Trump administration, which should tell us that the USA top does not yet see it as a mistake.

This brings me to my real point, I agree with Nima and Craig Murray here in these two separate works where they say that the war with Iran was planned since essentially trump’s first day in office. It IS accomplishing its goals for the USA. They expected the straits of hormuz to be shut. Only a long attrition war like that in Ukraine will successfully turn this into a mistake for the USA.

Seeing Trump Clearly

True, I think Postol and martyanov agree on the state of US elites doing strategy. And I agree with you, the miscalculation thinking the Russians do not see launches at sea when they actually can is very very dangerous. martyanov did his thesis on ASW so he’d know. Based on Martyanov’s blog, it seems he communicates with postol, so some professional disagreement. I would think that OTH radar is preferable and more defendable than satellites anyway.

Very interesting info RE hypersonics Mr P and Amarynth. I have always found it interesting that Andrei Martyanov says that Russia’s hypersonics are fully shoot and forget, which means that once they have received their target’s general area, they have active seeker capability, likely including imaging in some part of the spectrum to identify the target in the general area of the coordinates given at launch (e.g., by image correlation, which is how the houthis do some of their drone targeting).