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manderson
ParticipantI agree with you Mr. P.
More chaos surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is the short term goal of the whole war. Crush Europe more.
Trump wants the tankers to come to the US so he can have his cake (OIL) and eat Europe too.
manderson
ParticipantI know much of alt media is saying that Trump is an idiot and has made a huge mistake in Iran. Yes, that could be true. Of course, much of alt media pointed out that Ukraine was a mistake. And it continues to be one, but it also has the support of the Trump administration, which should tell us that the USA top does not yet see it as a mistake.
This brings me to my real point, I agree with Nima and Craig Murray here in these two separate works where they say that the war with Iran was planned since essentially trump’s first day in office. It IS accomplishing its goals for the USA. They expected the straits of hormuz to be shut. Only a long attrition war like that in Ukraine will successfully turn this into a mistake for the USA.
manderson
ParticipantThe MoonofAlabama highlights this piece by Tarik Cyril Amar. https://x.com/TarikCyrilAmar/status/1818580601219293405
The thesis of which is:
“Gaza is a Method. I intuitively agreed: It is obvious that the mass murder in Gaza outlines a pattern, a set of tools and measures of extermination, subjugation, and expulsion that are ready for export and will be in high demand – just like so much else of Israel’s spying, policing (if that is the word), and murder skills and tech have always been.”
Only a matter of time before this is used in the West on its own citizens.
manderson
ParticipantTrue, I think Postol and martyanov agree on the state of US elites doing strategy. And I agree with you, the miscalculation thinking the Russians do not see launches at sea when they actually can is very very dangerous. martyanov did his thesis on ASW so he’d know. Based on Martyanov’s blog, it seems he communicates with postol, so some professional disagreement. I would think that OTH radar is preferable and more defendable than satellites anyway.
manderson
ParticipantAlso martyanov has some thoughts on Ted Postol’s strategic ideas on ballistic missiles if you search his blog for “postol”. Here’s one. https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/06/responding-to-ted-postols-thesis.html
Still Postol provides a useful US perspective on the issue.
manderson
ParticipantVery interesting info RE hypersonics Mr P and Amarynth. I have always found it interesting that Andrei Martyanov says that Russia’s hypersonics are fully shoot and forget, which means that once they have received their target’s general area, they have active seeker capability, likely including imaging in some part of the spectrum to identify the target in the general area of the coordinates given at launch (e.g., by image correlation, which is how the houthis do some of their drone targeting).
manderson
ParticipantAlastair Crooke in his most recent video/column notes that Israel is split not only by the apartheid that so far has been the definitive aspect of Israel, but also between secular/commercial jews (Israel) and settlers (Judea). This split is not the same as secular vs religious, where many ultra orthodox are not armed. The settlers are an armed group which Alastair suggests could march on Tel Aviv for a coup d’état if any Israeli government tries to settle with the Palestinians or agree to a two state solution. Indeed, as I noted before, the insistence on the internationally recognized and legally rock solid “two state solution” seems to be exactly the wedge that forces Israel to destroy ITSELF as it’s radicals cannot reckon with the weakness of their state relative to Lebanon/Iran.
manderson
ParticipantPrivately-held debt also got Argentina in trouble and proved much harder to default on than IMF debt. Ethiopia stopped payment to the IMF for three years, essentially defaulting. When Argentina attempted similar re-negotiations with US bankers holding their debt there were many hold outs and then many many lawsuits and essentially non-stop demands to pay full price plus damages. Public bond issues (private debt) can be worse for nations because there’s no single entity to negotiate with and no way to declare bankruptcy.
Fortunately, Russia has started its own credit rating agency for exactly this reason. These US rating agencies also rate Russia as junk, despite glowing world bank reports, so clearly biased. https://www.reuters.com/article/business/russian-ratings-agency-acra-sees-portfolio-growing-as-foreigners-leave-idUSKBN19P1VB/
manderson
ParticipantAs AHH posted about, the IMF finalized a loan deal with Egypt.
Also yesterday, the IMF finalized a loan deal with Ethiopia. Ethiopia has good relations with China and Russia, but also with the US and Italians (despite prior wars). Still Ethiopians are a proud people and will not stand for being held back. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ethiopia-s-imf-deal-paves-way-for-debt-restructuring-official-says/ar-BB1qSyoz
This IMF deal doesn’t seem too bad, we’ll see if the interest rate / free floating currency becomes a problem.
manderson
ParticipantThe article by Marat Khairullin regarding the Africa Front and the development goals in the Sahel and north Africa is great news to hear. https://sovereignista.com/2024/07/27/the-african-front/
So Togo to Somaliland will be the route for cross-Africa travel. I am glad Russia is leading this effort, including integration and building of banks and a customs union. Africa already has a customs union and a visa free union, but they don’t work, from what I’ve read. Of course, several contingency plans were also hinted at (in Sudan and Senegal) so I guess the route is subject to change / expansion.
This is not where I would have wanted the second front to be at this moment since gaza is more urgent, but Marat is right that the amount of suffering visited on all of Africa by the West is immense and lengthy. Of course one of the larger suppliers of arms to Rwanda was also Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/records-of-israeli-arms-sales-during-rwandan-genocide-to-remain-sealed/
manderson
ParticipantGarland Nixon, Andrei martyanov and Scott Ritter discuss Africa extensively in this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAnlWg5kWpM
Garland points out that Chad and Senegal want to join the three AES countries. Scott points out that Algeria is already part of the larger security arrangement. I think Russia is also moving into Libya. Sudan is also mentioned, but not so much as part of AES+. I’ve outlined these on the map below. This is an African security concept, but it has an economic aspect as well. This is separate from BRICS and SCO I think. In any case, I have underlined the countries mentioned in the map below.

manderson
ParticipantRight, Orlov seemed think that the hybrid nature of this war has been kicked up a notch. Many plants in the US have gone up in smoke since the war started. The NATO summit talked 360 defense quite a bit and I had not seen that before. Do they mean they need to watch their backs / rear? The NATO declaration also speaks of hybrid war. This may be one of the ways the war is expanding (together with Russia supplying arms to friends like Syria and Cuba).
manderson
Participant
A more here:
They also seem to have started a domestic buying program and an international selling program, assuming these separate articles are accurate. China and Russia have similar programs.
manderson
ParticipantThank you for the maps and the updates on Kenya. I had no idea that the US was now funding Kenya via CHIPS act and NATO. The NATO designation for Kenya is big. Colombia was recently designated in part I think because so many mercenaries come from there and several training camps are there, it makes it easier for ITAR and other regulations if they are designated. Maybe they are planning the same type of mercenary bases for Kenya. This might not be to train mercs to destabilize Africa but more as a recruitment hub for all of Africa so they can then be sent elsewhere. I believe Colombian mercs have been killed in Gaza and Ukraine.
Here’s some more maps of UAE DP world projects in Africa.


DP world also won the contract for expanding the Berbera port in Somaliland for Ethiopia/Somaliland. Here is their plan for that:

manderson
ParticipantAh ok, makes sense thanks!
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