Thank you AHH for the update on Sudan. Their country has such a long sad history. Unsurprisingly, divisions which the English made worse during colonialism. Last time I had looked at the conflict it was unclear how the sides were aligned. Now it seems Russia at least is sure who they are supporting. What confuses me is that there are two names for the opposition Rapid Support Forces and Rapid Reaction Forces. As far as I know the Rapid Support Forces are the rebels here in this civil war, and interestingly, they were trained by Wagner. They are mercenaries and deemed terrorists now by the Sudanese government. This is different from prior sudanese civil wars which had a north-south component and a christian-muslim component. It appears the Sudanese govt decided that the RSF should be disarmed and disbanded (given their history of atrocities). Even though they once served the Sudanese govt they had become a problem and were hated in the south. It is interesting that Russia is now siding against the ex-wagner trained para-militaries. This is certainly the correct choice given that the sudanese govt is the lawful, recognized govt of sudan.

On the other hand, the rapid reaction force (RRF) is also a para-military body but composed of nations of the African Union. It is possible that the RRF is causing problems in Sudan alongside the RSF, but maybe the RU Ambassador meant RSF not RRF. The AU RRF (also called the ASF) is deployed across the eastern Sahel and could be slightly western aligned by not as much as ECOWAS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Standby_Force The two primary militaries in the RRF/ASF for this region are Ethiopia and Nigeria. The RU ambassador’s article is here: https://afrinz.ru/en/2024/06/on-confronting-western-neo-colonialism-article-by-andrey-chernovol-russian-ambassador-to-sudan/

It might just be bad translations too. For example, this key sentence doesn’t make sense: “Их силовое прикрытие и политический партнер по аддис-абебскому соглашению — СБР (военизированная организация «Силы быстрого реагирования» — «АИ»), на 80% укомплектованные иностранными наемниками. ” “Their force cover and political partner in the Addis Ababa agreement is the SIS (paramilitary organisation “Rapid Reaction Force” – “AI”), 80% staffed by foreign mercenaries.” I am just not sure who the ambassador is talking about (whether SIS / RRF / or AI), or what relevance the Addis Adaba agreement from the first sudanese civil war has with any of these groups including RSF and AU. Anyway, still very confusing to me.

Nevertheless, it appears Russia is working to help the sudanese govt fight these terrorists (the RSF) and that’s great news. Last I had heard only saudi arabia and UAE were trying to do something to settle things.

China is also interested in Equatorial Guinea as a possible site for an Atlantic naval base. China is a large trade partner for both Equatorial Guinea and Gabon (its southern neighbor on the coast). Gabon and Equatorial Guinea both have long serving dictators that were mostly western aligned most of their careers. Gabon’s dictator had more recently been working closely with China and had a partnership in place. He was recently disposed in a coup that was less populist than the other coups in the Sahel. So both of these countries are being courted by China and now Russia; and both countries have leaders that could make the switch (i.e. have enough independence and control). https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/

South Africa, like India, saw major set backs in recent elections for their ruling party the ANC. Some parties to the left of ANC gained significant ground. The ANC is in discussions to form a coalition government with the right which was only last seen under Mandela. It is strange that they do not ally with parties to their left. They have two weeks to try to bridge this gap.

Here is a great article on the subject.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/3/race-to-form-south-africas-next-government-who-will-the-anc-ally-with