Warwick on point with Pascal, with his new book, breaking down the theoretical framework he’s been writing about on his substack- “ThermoEconomics in a time of Monsters”. Echoes of Vaclac Smil’s book on energy, Marx, Sraffan product commodity theories, explaining debt as NECESSARY (and doing away with the stupid austerity arguments and bullshit neolib/keynesian idiocy) but as a matter of how the liquidity from debt is used- efficient/beneficial societally or not, formulated for the current age- and the title nods to Gramsci as we truly are in the time of monsters. His substack and writing can be pretty dense and academic, but this interview is a good explainer for the idea- it always, and always has been about harnessing energy so we can live- who gets to control it, how efficiently we use and obtain it, and how we use it.

That is the greatest usage of AI I have ever seen =D In 5 min, I laughed, I cried, I cheered, I hoped!

Brian is getting a bit myopic (if not just wrong) on his “Hamas” bad thing- he doubled down in his post on it- the assessment that “following the money” is actually how it operates and that Oct 7th would be a self-inflicted Gaza flattening, is too influenced from his spending so much research time via think tank and policy papers. He doesn’t view this from the aspect of political Islam, the muddled realpolitik of Syrian collapse, and the broader overview of the entire war (ie Gaza/Tufan Al-aqsa as Stalingrad, and this is operation Bagration with China/Russia playing the role of Overlord in supply logistics). It’s a level of imperial doomerism that western analysts keep reverting to that Iran and the axis of resistance simply doesn’t fall into because of the importance of political Islam- suggest to read Indi.ca’s edited collection of “Reading Resistance” from their own words to understand what drives their positions and how they carry it out https://indi.ca/books/

And I would argue he’s headed in a wrong direction with his initial analysis here – that Iran’s air defenses are somehow more degraded than before- many of the mapped strikes on Iran are still primarily along the west, and still standoff- the assertion that they have better air penetration and THAT is the reason they are using cheaper JDAMS doesn’t actually make sense. It actually implies they have LESS viable air access- being shorter range means they would need to get CLOSER to their targets to be as effective as the more expensive weaponry they are trying to save/reshuffle from other bases. Iran’s air defense was never going to be great- many of Periol’s posts in the chronicles thread lay out why, (and Brian is right in that the training for SU300+ and others from China would require better training that there just wasn’t time for- Stanislav Krapivnik is convinced that any of the Russian batteries there are all being manned by Russians on the ground). But just as many western analysts have pointed out that dropping JDAMS primarily on the western regions are actually proof the air defense is working- they can’t risk sending the pricey toys further in because they risk getting shot down and wasted, not to mention fueling planes now not being able to transit places like Iraq and the F watevers being busted by “friendly fire”.

I highly recommend reading and internalizing the words of martyr Basil Al-Araj (page 131 of the collated work at the link above). Essentially 7 rules to follow in supporting the resistance-

1. The Palestinian resistance consists of guerrilla formations whose strate‐
gies follow the logic of guerrilla warfare or hybrid warfare, which Arabs
and Muslims have become masters of through our experiences in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza. War is never based on the logic of
conventional wars and the defense of fixed points and borders; on the
contrary, you draw the enemy into an ambush. You do not stick to a fixed
position to defend it; instead, you perform maneuvers, movement, with‐
drawal, and attack from the flanks and the rear. So, never measure it
against conventional wars.

2. The enemy will spread photos and videos of their invasion into Gaza,
occupation of residential buildings, or presence in public areas and well-
known landmarks. This is part of the psychological warfare in guerrilla
wars; you allow your enemy to move as they wish so that they fall into
your trap and you strike them. You determine the location and timing of
the battle. So, you may see photos from Al-Katiba Square, Al-Saraya, Al-
Rimal, or Omar Al-Mukhtar Street, but do not let this weaken your
resolve. The battle is judged by its overall results, and this is merely a
show.

3. Never spread the occupation’s propaganda, and do not contribute to
instilling a sense of defeat. This must be focused on, for soon, we will start
talking about a massive invasion in Beit Lahia and Al-Nusseirat, for exam‐
ple. Never spread panic; be supportive of the resistance and do not spread
any news broadcast by the occupation (forget about the ethics and impar‐
tiality of journalism; just as the zionist journalist is a fighter, so are you).

4. The enemy may broadcast images of prisoners, most likely civilians, but
the goal is to suggest the rapid collapse of the resistance. Do not believe
them.

5. The enemy will carry out tactical, qualitative operations to assassinate
some symbols [of resistance], and all of this is part of psychological
warfare. Those who have died and those who will die will never affect the
resistance’s system and cohesion because the structure and formations of
the resistance are not centralized but horizontal and widespread. Their
goal is to influence the resistance’s support base and the families of the
resistance fighters, as they are the only ones who can affect the men of the
resistance.

6. Our direct human and material losses will be much greater than the
enemy’s, which is natural in guerrilla wars that rely on willpower, the
human element, and the extent of patience and endurance. We are far
more capable of bearing the costs, so there is no need to compare or be
alarmed by the magnitude of the numbers.

7. Today’s wars are no longer just wars and clashes between armies but
rather are struggles between societies. Let us be like a solid structure and
play a game of biting fingers with the enemy, our society against their
society.

Finally, every Palestinian (in the broad sense, meaning anyone who sees
Palestine as a part of their struggle, regardless of their secondary identi‐
ties), every Palestinian is on the front lines of the battle for Palestine, so be
careful not to fail in your duty.

This is kind of a confusing list- what defines ownership and control of the central banks? With the AES implementing a different financial system and currency away from Francafrique, does that change anything? What about central banks with strong central control and state regulatory oversight (PBOC)?

aha, good to know about the vapors and science- follow up wonder (and this prob goes way into other science I am even more clueless about) why are there so many flammable fires in ICE cars? I’m now remembering a report from firefighters who state house fires as being so much more dangerous now because of all the hydrocarbon furniture and items- fuel forever to burn. I imagine car interiors are much the same- I never forgot the one I saw on the highway, black plume and flaming, not from a collision but something else, the driver must have sensed something and was watching it from a distance along with the fire crew.

I do think the expensive solution to the cheap problem was handled via scaling, which has knock on effects to lower pricing, etc. (in so much as it can be “solved” via capitalist modes of production, or the China model of building towards socialism by unlocking quality forces of production). I find Warwick Powell’s recent writings about energy return on investment very insightful here and the comparison of how oil/hydrocarbons value return is now very poor compared to the initial discovery and implementation, and those initial estimates never took environmental effects into the equation.

Justin Podur made a good point along with Benji and Indi on the resistance is fertile pod the other day. Because so many liberal and red-brown/compatible “leftists” are so afraid to name “jews”/zionists in any way, Tucker and their ilk can now occupy that space to milk the AIPAC /Zios for the usual scapegoat role, whitewashing and laundering the “good” empire image, as if the US and the west haven’t been doing this since inception. That replaces any needed critique of imperialism/capitalism, and it is never going to come from the modern “left” in the west, and the hucksters like Tucker get to lob ziogrenades from their white supremacist towers of imperialism.

Justin made a funny note about how such liberals just want everyone to hate them, like Medhi Hasan, the exemplar smarmy sniveling pr brown faced clown.

Ah, yes I wasn’t posting numbers in response to your post, just the tweet. As you said, it was a different (and imo wrong) take.

There’s a scene I recall from GameOfThrones that I always think about, that has been repurposed a few times in blogs by people trying to wrap their head around empire’s ways- a failure of imagination. Namely, that the oppressed just cannot imagine the depths of depravity the empire will go, the chaos it will sow, the damage it will seek just to spite others, because we still retain our humanity and connection to each other. And seemingly that can be to humanity’s detriment because we keep losing. And for sure, I’d bet on the strategy being as you and others like berletic have said- empire seeks sowing chaos as its own end.

But related to that was an excellent post by Warwick Powell – the west sees conflict as inevitable and loves the thucydides trap as the example, but going by Chinese governing thought, (Confucius, Daoism, Legalism, and now evolving Marxist), that story serves as a parable about how good governance is about avoiding chaos and conflict.

https://warwickpowell.substack.com/p/reclaiming-thucydides-in-the-name

It is still a difficult thing for western thought to get their minds around, that things do NOT have to end in chaos and conflict. Again, assuming we are allowed to get there. Furthering this, there are two long interviews with Josef Mahoney (westerner now teaching at East Normal University in China) that I thought were excellent in many points-

https://resistanceisfertilepodcast.substack.com/p/understanding-marxism-with-chinese

in both he goes into the idea how even western marxism and thought may not be able to reconcile conflict beyond binary, win/lose, possibly even because it is embedded into the basis of indo-european languages, whereas Mao and Chinese Marxism reaches directly back to Chinese thought as a unity of opposites- yin yang, balance- On Contradiction being Mao’s classic treatise on this.

I am wary of prognosticators who try and game everything out for China, especially if they come at it from a western lens (ie predictive history/jiang really speaks from and for a western audience). And Mahoney above himself is a bit caught in a western Marxist, rather chauvinst take -he prefaces all Iran statements with an admonishment “I’m against theocracy”- it’s why I thought Joti Brar’s statement was so corrective- with purging of leftist/marxists in the region over the years, Shia is now the region’s liberation theology- poohpoohing it is such a pearl clutching bs move. The KMT/CPC united front was necessary, and that is what this is- alliance against the great evil.

Benji/resistance is fertile also did a podcast with Rami Yahya where the latter mentioned he now saw the Palestinian struggle, the west asia/middle eastern struggle as their current century of humiliation akin to what China suffered. And that the hope and belief is that now, we are nearing the end. And Arnaud Bertrand’s tweet about China’s overcoming their helium dependency requires so much input, collective work from the nation and its people, to truly build that level of resilience, that level of sovereignty, most nations simply do not have it. But the Iran war is showing that if you DO get there, China, and Russia, are there to help. Assuming we all do get there.

At this point, I’m all for what Indi.ca says about taking the resistance at their word and actions, and even their predictions, and their predictions have been pretty accurate- 2027 the end of israel inshallah. Oct 7 was the flood/Stalingrad, now Iran is completing the flood. Victory be with them for the sake of humanity.

yea, that take is incorrect already by step 1- China did not depend on venezuela oil- it was the other way around- Venezuela got a lifeline from China. Less than 1.5% of of China’s oil imports came from Venezuela. Gulf oil is also not the dealbreaker- Iran only produces 2.5mil, 90% bought by China, but also they do not depend on Iran for oil- non-opec countries like Kazakhstan, Russia and Malaysia (tho they get much of their oil from parts of the gulf and are more refiners iirc) can continue to supply and none of those are at full capacity.

Further, and I can’t remember the other link I had that broke it all down- China is 84% energy self sufficient. Energy from oil imports account for a portion of the remaining 16%, and the portion of that from areas at risk are a portion of that. China adds energy 2x the size of Germany’s entire power grid- EVERY YEAR, mainly from renewables, but also indigenous coal, and it’s own oil pumps in western china.

It may hurt, but it will not cripple China, nor will it give the US the leverage some think it may.

That aside- in reference to your original typewriter post, it certainly makes some sense, tho I doubt anyone in Trump’s circle is smart enough to do it, maybe some of the background oligarchs. But certainly Russia and China may have such a plan- if nothing else, Iran may remove Israel as the political quagmire for Russia without the RF having to do a thing. Then again, incompetence/stupidity/zioeschatology > planning certainly is also possible.