much appreciate all the posts you make, take your time to get better.

my condolences, very sorry to hear about the typewriter shop =(

Don’t know how this writer does it, surely some AI help, but puts out like 5 pieces a week, many of them highly technical with really good granular detail.

Here is one today that is again, very good – Japan and Germany, and the AfD being a dangerous precedent not because of some of it’s policy choices that could be standalone sensible, but on how it is shifting the moral, historical, nationalist background used to rationalize them. Japan’s LDP presents the clear mirror example and dire warning. The piece is extremely detailed on both parties specific policies, speeches and very serious escalations and revisionism used to justify the same end.

https://leonliao.substack.com/p/germanys-afd-and-japans-right

Just because the AfD maybe isn’t as war insane as the actual Nazi’s in power right now doesn’t mean you can really find common cause with them if their basis is revisionism- I forget the german writer who mentions this, but this idea of “Volk” and the “Valhallan” lines of violence culture that was tamed, slightly, by Christendom, never truly went away, and now are resurfacing all the more. When your most forward facing spokesperson is saying Hitler was a communist and therefore THAT is why he should be discarded, you are not to be trusted on anything that comes out of your mouth.

This caught quite the attention in Chinese online circles, and simple breakdown here- Billionaire smackdown, loopholes for off-shoring trusts in tax haven for the likes of Jack Ma, Haidilao’s founder (national hot pot chain) etc are now closed and tightening.

turn on cc for very accurate subtitles.

Cursory search of the chinese title (which loosely translated means Finance ministry and Tax dept release joint announcment- new rules regarding taxation of off shore trusts) came up with lots of hits for the official ministry sites- it’s like the export controls that took years to implement meticulously and are now launching much more aggressively and effectively, now targeted at capital flight, and off shoring tax evasion by the billionaire clique- no more changing nationality bs to escape national rules (ie like what Meta tried to do when acquiring Chinese AI startup Manus which tried to high tail it to Singapore, which was blocked and now in limbo). If I’m reading this right, 20% immediate taxation, up to near 20% (18.75 I think is what is stated in the video) compounded penalty for failure to comply within 90 days, and any inheritance wealth transfer is taxed at similar rate.

honestly wish it were higher %, but if this gets the ball rolling on crushing the billionaire wealth accumulation in China, best news I’ve seen all week.

To go along with his most recent Neutrality Studies conversation, pretty excellent article by Zhang Sheng, critically highlighting the problems China’s “neutral” BRI causes for the geopolitical relations with Iran and the rest of the world under attack by the US and the west.

https://preprint.press.jhu.edu/anp/sites/default/files/Asian%20Perspective_preprint_Sheng%20Zhang_%28Spring%202026%29.pdf

For all those who have rightly called out China for its waffling and “open for business” model with everyone, it’s very much going to keep causing problems unless there are more direct and clear geopolitical lines drawn within BRI- it mirrors the issues with BRICS and SCO directional issues. For all the statements about Chinese capital being under the gov’t’s control like in the leonliao substack article emerson a few messages above or “China is socialist” videos from Ben Norton, it is clearly not a consensus direction- it is still the dangerous nature of capital, looking for markets regardless of the needs to be geopolitically astute and aligned- China’s internal tensions about the directions of capital investment are likely in for (if not outright need) another adjustment period right now.

Can’t help but chortle – That tweet/video about silicon/quartz is a prime example of US and western hubris/arrogance/stupidity- thinking that a hold on quartz and thus silicon makes them secure and that it will forever be like that- classic monopoly capitalism on older tech. Like thinking they are oil/gas “self-sufficient”.

Warwick Powell just posted the most science heavy and technical piece on this, and way beyond me, but it stands out as how the thinking in China is just so totally different.

https://warwickpowell.substack.com/p/the-power-combo-of-digital-westphalia

TLDR- (probably not exactly, but hope I get the right idea) silicon isn’t even going to be the chip material for the future. The next step is multi-nodal- Graphene- China has a monopoly on this, again, with a fully maturing supply and industrial chain ready to go and join with the other technology- the paper Powell cites just tested and proves MoS2 (Molybdenum Sulfide) new wafer creation methodology at the atomic scale, along with already in production of TENGs (Triboelectric Nanogenerators- captures micro/ambient levels of energy- from human motion to wind, etc- ie cuts power usage) and this creates a medium for semiconductors and the resulting tech that silicon cannot touch, levels of magnitude more efficient in complete stack creation and implementation.

And this doesn’t even get into Indium-selenide, which was tested last year, again, in China, another atomic level scale wafer tech https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/chinas-historical-semiconductor-breakthrough?utm_source=publication-search

truly – carbon copy of Britain in 1793 with Trump as Macartney. China certainly remembers how that turned out and has prepared accordingly. If Trump has no off ramp with Iran, what does he expect to find with this meeting???

ah, yea was just about to post this- it has been some time since Kevin did a dive onto crypto and related decentralized monetary systems, this one was a biggie. All the attempts of the US to evaporate their debt via Stablecoins (as I believe Russian financial commentators and officials have mentioned in public statements), not gonna fly. Tether deeply f’d itself by exposing its complete compliance with the Epstein Pirates. BTC volatility still shows its inability to be storage of value. Gold, even with its own volatility, still holds as the backup. BRICS attempts of fits and starts for their own currency and/or clearing mechanism or exchange system, with all the potential internal sabotage now from India/UAE and others hedging, is far behind with any alternative options.

Kevin has done a couple videos in the past about commodities tradings within BRICS nations and bilateral trading being done completely outside of western controlled blocs like CME or others, so they are functionally invisible. And amarynth’s multiple about the BRICS crypto/de-dollarization efforts (or non-efforts) have been enlightening.

My own very layman’s take, on the belief that CBDC’s are going to rule day (leaving aside the “evil” description by many in the west)- the nature of trusting CBDC’s still require more than just exchange value- it needs to be backed by something productive. I think this is why China’s rollout actually works so far- it has use value- it can be exchanged for commodities, useful goods, a productive economy that backs it up that cannot be easily disrupted. The west/US belief and vain hope that everyone will rush to US CBDC because of a Thatcherite “TINA” belief is more a last ditch effort to keep from paying off their credit card bill- just open another credit card. But there is nothing there- and the same material results, since the petrodollar was backed by military “might”- but that clearly isn’t worth the fiat paper it was written on, as the Arab bases, Korean THAADS, etc demonstrated. And contrary to the IMF/World Bank austerity confiscation schemes- say a CBDC or even the Chinese international Yuan (CHY) is being f’d with via plots and machinations of the west- rather than stripping it of sovereign assets within China to get that lucre paid off, China just would do what it has been doing- building concessional infrastructure, material components and systems in exchange.

There would also be a very funny potential ironic FAFO result here- Warwick Powell has covered this a bit- either devaluing OR appreciating the RMB actually helps China either way- the classic (if faulty in its incompleteness) belief in cheaper currency builds and sustains export economy like China’s, or appreciating it causes parties to WANT it for value storage and exchange usage (which has all sorts of up and downstream effects on supply chains) and further entrenches Chinese supply chain and system resiliency. https://warwickpowell.substack.com/p/hold-your-horses

I’m interested to know if there are updates on Hong Kong’s role as the hub for a lot of China’s international financial policies, especially of BTC (ICB did cover this a bit a year ago)- if the regulations there are being finalized for a crypto market are done or not. With the massive influx of capital coming back to China via UAE and Arab flight, this also presents a whole new set of complexities to sort through. ICB also highlighted an interesting point a while back too about China’s US treasury holding- they don’t care how little payback they get, they are still progressively eliminating holdings for whatever value they have left, and gold buying is still non-stop. (Contrast this with Japan’s liquidation reversing the Yen carry trade to save their own money, and by extent the US).

Questions the video leaves me with- in the past Kevin made a point about Tether specifically used for trading UST’s and USD outside of US control, but with Tether caving that’s now obviously gone- but the idea still stands- can other parties who hold so much of the USD reserves still trade the UST for some sort of exchange value outside of US control, via mBridge, CIPS, or some other platform? Or is it still liquidate no matter what (albeit in controlled manner), be it for gold, future basket of commodities and/or currencies, concessional infrastructure/partnerships all the way and let the dollar reserve status die off, until a Keynes Bancor or a new, non-IMF/World Bank controlled Special Drawing Rights is agreed upon?