Time Is On Iran’s Side

All ‘America’ can do, in its furore, is close the strait even more, which just makes the straitjacket even tighter. America has to move mountains to change their fate, but all Iran has to do is not move.

The FT on April 13th

Iran’s shot has already been fired, though the signal is taking a while to reach the dim, stimulus-addled brain they call ‘the market’. The last pre-war tankers have just unloaded, and there’s nothing but a violent absence behind them. Like a hollow-point bullet, this hollow in the global economy will only expand and no one is immune. ‘America’ is not energy independent and oil feeds into all global outputs, which they, as a globalized Empire, depend on too. No man is an island, not even an ‘American’.

As Iranian Speaker MB Ghalibaf (God preserve him), said on April 13th, “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas. ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O).” What this means (as far as I can glean) is that the change [Δ] in oil supply [O] after the Block of Strait of Hormuz [BSOH] is greater than zero. That much is self-evident, unless you’re an oil trader, getting high on your own supply. Something has happened, as much as Western markets (which have effectively been nationalized via manipulation) try to deny it.

That something is not limited to an increase in oil prices. The function of oil [f(O)] feeds into all prices, such that the function of the function of oil [f(f(O))] is greater than a simple rise in oil prices alone. That is to say, that the second-order affects of an oil shock are enormous. And Ghalibaf could go on. f(f(f(f(O))))…offf. The effects will go on and on in the real world, and compound and compound in the fake markets, which are a bigger fraud than they were in 2008, with nothing but slippery oil at the bottom. The impact will not just be higher prices at the pump, it will be something akin to the Greatest Depression, as much as crony-capitalists try to pump-and-dump their way out. They’re just making money on the volatility, while leaving the time-bomb to the general population.

Again, a lot of this impact is already baked in, and all the moves Trump is making just making it worse in the end. To put it in terms traders might understand, you might feel OK because you have cocaine in your bloodstream now, but the dealer has been arrested and there is no more coke going round. As Gabriel Byrne said in film The Usual Suspects, having his own shipping problems, “There’s no coke. [What?] You heard me you dumb fuck, there’s no coke. I’ve been up and down this ship I’ve been in every room. There is nothing. Nothing. There is no. Fucking. Coke!”

The Wu-Tang Clan (Inspectah Deck, on Ghostface’s album) quoted The Usual Suspects on the song Assassination Day, which reads quite presciently these days. Deck said,

I move through the Third World, my third eye’s the guidin’ light
Invite the fight, we all die tonight!
The life I live’s a 25-to-life bid
Parole reneged, I stroll the globe fugitive
Cream is short, Cee-Cipher-Power stalk, plus the fiend talk
3G’s the cost in Supreme Court
White lies and blackmail land me back in jail
We’re all for sale, a stolen goal but it fail
Stranded on the front line, I shine to the dumb and blind
It comes time I take back what was once mine
Crunch time in the first quarter, from the worst slaughter
Devils poisonin’ the birth water
The Earth daughter rest her head on my chest
Through the struggle, we cuddle under half-moon crest
While the press plant fear and exploit the gun blastin’
Central broadcastin’ is shacklin’, nerves are unfastened
Trapped in deep water, gaspin’
I clash with the titans for my half on the action

Iran, indeed moves through the third world and invites the fight with White Empire (‘America’, ‘Israel’, Europe, same difference). As Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi famously said, “We are waiting for them.” Iran has been on a 25-to-life bid for 47 years, they’ve been in sanctions jail ever since they dared nationalize their natural resources, their oil strolling the globe fugitive, and the white lies and blackmail of the Obama administration (JCPOA) just landed them back again. So now, they shine to the dumb and blind, [as] it comes time I take back what was once mine. Iran has unsanctioned themselves and reverse sanctioned the white devils as they clash with the titans for my half on the action. You can hear Wu-Tang tell it in ’96.

This is what’s happening and none of the crap Trump is saying can unhappen it. He can move markets but he can’t move mountains, and the global avalanche has already started. If you think it’s just going to affect Asia you are letting racism cloud your judgement (what are we, a bunch of ASIANS???). Remember COVID? Not just the disease but the economics was contagious. What’s incoming is a level of ‘demand destruction’ on the same scale, with the same guy that told you to drink bleach at the wheel.

I say this as someone (in Sri Lanka) already living in the future that Westerners are so blithely trading. You can trade paper oil all you want, but you can’t start an engine on it, and there just isn’t enough oil in the system. Now that the supply whip has reached North America, those margin calls will start coming in and you’ll get a ‘correction’ of historic proportions. Don’t take my word for it, even the blood-suckers at Goldman Sachs say, “We estimate that the hit to total oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 17.6mb/d (17% of global supply), making today’s shock the largest in history.”

The global economy, meaning really the imperial economy, is about to blow a fuse. Again, we’ve already felt it under the boot of empire (Sri Lanka has fuel rationing already) but now it’s about to afflict the comfortable. The physical price of a barrel of diesel (not crude) hit $286 in Sri Lanka (!) and we’re not just idiots. Our government is terrified of running out of fuel because this has happened to us before. But your government is acting like it doesn’t care which is worse. They keep pretending like their ship is going to come in when there hasn’t been 22a ship on the wind since February. April Fool’s, fools, jokes on you. The only ship coming in is hardship and when it does, the reckoning in the wretched West will be something magnificent.

If you look at jet fuel/kerosene on the water, it is not looking good for anybody. This is a global market and it is, as the Black Eyed Peas say, getting retarded in here. Traders call the spread between futures and present backwardation and when it finally unwinds it’s going to sting. Lufthansa (in Germany) is already cutting 20,000 flights and Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so” of jet fuel left, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. This is not isolated, 19 of the top 20 airlines have cut flights, according to analytics firm Cirium.

You can see the functions within functions here. Jet fuel is a function of shipping, which is also a function of fuel, it all comes down to oil. And so if oil goes down, it all goes down too. And remember that this is a deeply connected and highly leveraged market, losing 20-25% is not just a number, it’s like losing a limb and it is not, as Monty Python said, just a flesh wound. It’s mortal if left untreated, and the mad king in charge of White Empire is only making thing worse while his courtiers profit from the ever-changing fashion in invisible clothes.

But I’m telling you now, the Empire has no clothes. As Professor Sayyed Mohammad Marandi said recently. “The Americans have no good options. Zero good options. They have no cards. It’s not that they have few cards, they have no cards and more fighting against Iran will make it worse for the United States and everyone across the world.” What Iran has got in Hormuz is a a weapon of Mass Economic Destruction which they have been inoculated to by years of sanctions. This is really a MED for what ails the global economy (White hegemony), and poison for White Empire that depends on free-flowing crude.

Let me be clear, as Marandi has been. If the Empire retreats now, the economy will crash, that’s already facts. But if they restart the war (as they seem inclined to), the crash will be gigantic. In fact, Marandi—who is close to the government and travelled with them to Islamabad—has explicitly said (to people in the United Arab Eunuchs),

I think it’s best for people to leave now and to cross the desert and to go to I suppose Iraq or maybe even Yemen or maybe I don’t know. I can’t think of any other place for people to go to, but I think that maybe Oman. In any case, people should leave and also sailors on the ships in the Persian Gulf, they should be ready to evacuate their ships because, if push comes to shove, those ships will not survive ultimately if the war is expanded. Especially ships that are closer to the straight of Hormuz—they’ll be targeted and destroyed. So it’s best if all sailors should be prepare themselves right now for evacuation.

As he continued,

I think that people should immediately evacuate is because we don’t want people to die, but the oil and gas infrastructure, I think they’re all finished and the electricity finished. Everything will be finished if Trump carries out his threat. And so we’re going to head for a global economic depression. There won’t be any oil more oil or gas or helium or fertilize or anything from the Persian Gulf region for years to come and especially US proxies. And so this is Trump’s doing. No one should forget that the Zionists, Netanyahu, the Israeli regime they push the United States and of course Trump is obedient to them for whatever reason and they are to blame. They are to blame for what is happening now and they’re to blame what is to happen from here on. (Dialogue Works)

Time is on Iran’s side, and all the White Empire can do is writhe in the bed they made. They can leave with a negotiated settlement or unmitigated chaos, but they’re leaving, that much is already established. Their bases in the Gulf are never coming back, and their entire basis for global power (naval supremacy) has also been whacked. “Exit, pursued by bear (market)”, as the Bard said. Iran is leaving Trump on read and the White Empire for dead because that’s all that’s deserved. The Empire’s clothes are made of polyester, they lit them on fire, and there’s no new ships full of vetements coming in. Just hardship, and consequences.

Wait for it.