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  • in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59379
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Pepe

    It’s nearly midnight in Moscow, the city is rockin’ on the eve of Russia Day, those who have not left for their dachas ahead of a 4-day holiday are on fire, I am at my favorite Italian restaurant swamped by the beautiful set, but the point is we are ALL extremely wary. Something EXTREMELY SERIOUS may be brewing in West Asia. Worrying signs all over, from Iraq to Qatar. I was discussing that with Larry yesterday at dinner with one of my top Russian friends/sources, and with Alastair this morning. Just came from a top itvw with George Galloway, and he’s also worried. The genocidals may be about to commit the Mother of All Blunders – handing Iran the perfect opportunity to deal them a mortal blow. The level of tension is off the charts high.

    There will NOT be a new round of indirect US-Iran negotiations in Oman this Sunday.

    This does NOT look good.

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59377
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    There are a few issues that are converging now.

    -Iran warns it will react ‘strongly’ to potential ‘strategic mistake’ by E3 .. They want to re-institue the ‘snap-back’ mechanism – dead since 2015.
    Iran’s foreign minister has issued a stern warning to the three European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, commonly known as the E3, accusing them of failure to fulfill their obligations and cautioning against further “strategic mistakes.”

    -Iran’s nuclear chief has dismissed the latest IAEA report accusing Tehran of non-compliance with the safeguards agreement, calling it a “big lie.”

    -Netanyahu is expected to lose the vote and the Knesset will be dissolved. The US is working very hard to try and contain this.

    -Iran is being pressurized in the run-up to the negotiations on Sunday.

    -There is a feeling that Iran is lying on what they found in the documents that they got from Israel. There is a push to make them walk their talk and make them lose.

    -Israel is seemingly in a state of economic collapse.

    This all has consequences. The oil price (Brent Crude) has just spiked 5% and shows no sign of stopping the climb.

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59376
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Just in now … US embassy in Iraq preparing to EVACUATE — Reuters

    Cites Iraqi security official and ‘U.S. source’. They’re calling it ‘ordered evacuation’ due to ‘heightened security risks’. Iran’s Defense Chief has warned Tehran could hit US bases in region if conflict breaks out.

    Could be saber rattling. Could be Netanyahu is expected to be handed his ass at the vote at 1am local time over there and the decision is to go with the OOPS to save his ass. But the evacuation orders for families across the area so far are voluntary. This cannot be gamed. Too many pieces. Too much insanity.

    Check X, Prof Marandi: https://x.com/s_m_marandi/status/1932880300163350866

    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Today Brain Wilson who wrote most of the Beach Boys songs died at the ripe old age of 82.  I was never a Beach boys fan but the tunes were lively and fun and of course we know all of them. They were really the only US band who rivalled the Beatles.  My mind went to California, California Dreaming, California Girls, riots and a time when things really seemed more simple.  Yes, I know what was behind there, but it seemed simple.  I went to look for some Beach Boys tunes and as things go, came across the story of Guns ‘n Roses, November Rain.  (Liked Guns ‘n Roses much more than the Beach Boys but death was always close in that world where the drugs defined the music).

    Say a cheers to Brian Wilson: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmkyn981zvo

    November Rain was one of the greatest Rock Ballads ever and the first music video to hit 1 Billion views – YouTube was the only video streaming app that was alive at the time.

    Who was it who said that the US should have continued playing music instead of making war.

    Enjoy the story.

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59372
    amarynth
    Keymaster

     

     

    OOPS!

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59348
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Hi AHH, let me update the thinking a bit on 2 issues .. there is not enough time in the day.

    ” may be of interest to Amarynth, who was praising UNAFIL last year.. yes, there are honorable elements within them. But as with ALL UN/western NGOs, they are part of the shameless Big Club, working solely for one side in every Forever War”

    Unifil – we have changes. At the time when they did their job, the Lebanese government did not have its election (and they are totally emasculated now), and Hezbollah was still in the game. Hezbollah is now primarily focused on caring for its people. They will not be fighting. Israel itself has had a boost in that nobody is questioning their attempts to own the region but they must know they have the Gulf States behind them with a knife. So Unifil needs to work with the Lebanese army. OK you can ask me which Lebanese army of course haha .. Just recently the US and Israel said that Unifil is not necessary any longer. I’ve not seen that come up in the UN Security Council. We will see.

    We have to look at both sides .. Unifil as well as traitorous Lebanese army.

    So, we’ve had a massive change and then even a bigger one with the force happening to normalize with Israel overall. We are now questioning the stance of China and this Unifil has many Chinese soldiers while China seems to want to normalize unless they’re doing something in the background that is not visible. There is a long story there – Unifil has soldiers from 50 countries.

    Then, I said there will not be war against Iran for the next four months all things being equal (those four months have had a bite out of them already). I have since not fully changed my mind, but I am allowing space for a proverbial killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The space, opportunity and probability for such a proverbial oops has increased. The reason is easy to see in that Trump does not seem to understand that Iran has a trump card. He keeps saying ‘Iran has changed’ but seemingly he is either playing plausible deniability or he is just not informed. Given the extreme factional nature now of his administration, and the extreme desperation of finding a win somewhere, and Hegseth wanting to make a name for himself after crawling from the Red Sea, they may make an extreme error of judgement, but I don’t see any judgement. So, I rate an error much higher than what I rate a war against Iran. We will see at the negotiations on Sunday and that is if the region is not at war yet. One usually analyzes on the basis of the reasonableness of the other side. Well, that has undeniably and forever left the room and the other side is lashing out in pure malevolence having lost their own fear for their own skins – the wish for a win overshadows all calculus of reasonability. The Israeli vote today increases the possibility of ‘error’.

    OK, let me go and work.

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59346
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Any little pressure is good. There is internal hysteria, no matter the sides. This may also reflect on the eventual decision to hit Iran or not- Should the Knesset be disbanded, who takes responsibility for the new negotiations coming up on Sunday? It is a volatile time, so .. any little pressure may have unintended consequences.

    I’m not talking hope, I’m talking possible consequences in a tinderbox where anything could light a match.

    AlManar has a bit of a write up.
    https://english.almanar.com.lb/2430045

    Al Mayadeen also has something up – Just factual: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/netanyahu-s-gov–at-risk-as-opposition-decides-on-knesset-di

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59340
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Just posted up at the War and Genocide thread. We have the vote today in Israel:

    In a joint statement, the Knesset opposition parties announced that they will place a bill to dissolve the Israeli parliament on today’s agenda, adding that the decision was “made unanimously and is binding on all factions.”

    “In addition, in coordination between all factions, it was decided to remove opposition legislation from the agenda in order to concentrate all efforts on one goal: to overthrow the government,” read the statement, which was released following a meeting of the opposition parties in the Knesset.

    Who knows the sequence of their process? Has Mahmood OD said anything yet?

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 10 June 2025 … Open Thread #59335
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Not sure how old that Gabbard tweet is Mr P.  I scrolled back quickly in her stream to around her confirmation day, but could not see it.

    What strikes me is that it says:  ” … So it is up to us, ordinary people, to speak up and demand that this madness stop.”

    If it is before she became part of the administration it may make sense, but currently?  Is it not up to the administration that she is part of?

    Anyway …

     

     

    in reply to: Spiritual Healing – june 2025 #59249
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Nice topic Nico.

    My interest has always centered around the healing therapies although nowadays I have to stay with the basics of naturopathics. But I did a few of the Donna Eden classes. A lot of fun, and if one knows a little about energy meridians, her work falls nicely into there.

    This is such a crossover of the eastern philosophies.  Those fellows knew about this stuff before we even opened our eyes.

    Home

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 30 May 2025 … Open Thread #59181
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Pure propaganda .. if a half Chinese person talks about the CCP, you know it already.  They don’t .. that is a western affectation as they, if they speak English and this one does, know that it is called the Communist Party of China, i.e., CPC.  You get folks that don’t know this sometimes, but one that professes to know .. it is a dead give-away.

    I went to look for Xi Jinping, and he is all over the place, certainly he is not quiet.  He was at this military funeral, shaking hands with family members on the 8th. No more and no less photos than usual and his stuff is not always full of pics.  It is usually one or two very beautiful pics formally released.   He also met the Myanmar leader on the 8th, and I have no idea why she says he is ‘scarce’.  The one site that she refers to that tracks his movements .. no idea what that is.  He is all over the Foreign Affairs site where I usually pick up, and all over Xinhua, that keeps a wide commentary on his doings – all over the Chinese military main site and all over the State Council Site.

    Propaganda for sure.  If I was not so certain, I would go and look for the meetings that she says did not happen, but, I am sure.  If there was an issue, it is not there now.  Xi Jinping wins again lol.

    Looking at the speaker’s credentials, it is all US.  There are no Chinese links like Weibo or any of the Chinese social media, and they are incredibly huge.  Her stuff is one of those anti-China think-tanks.

     

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #58872
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Trump fires three top pro-Israel officials amid reported rift with Netanyahu

    Merav Ceren, Eric Trager, and Morgan Ortagus were axed reportedly due to pro-Israel stances

    Two had been appointed by Mike Waltz — himself recently ousted

    Morgan Ortagus is the woman who caused chaos in Lebanon, telling them what to do.

    But another extraordinary thing .. Missiles into the Occupied Golan from Syria? 2 of them, more or less, at the same time as the Houthis’ missiles into Israel. A group calling itself the “Martyr Mohammed Deif Brigades” has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack on the occupied Golan.

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 30 May 2025 … Open Thread #58684
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Its good to listen to Sal. I have a few of those as well – just the ones that tell a different story and a different take on things.  I cannot always listen but it is good when I can.

    And even a bunch of grain on a ship falls over or is in a storm that takes down ship and cargo, can create damage unbelievable and costly – numbers that my head does not wrap itself around.  And for crude, wow.

    But Sal is wrong in one respect .. there is insurance – not your daddy’s ship’s insurance but there is a mechanism.  I picked that fact up one day but did  not stick around for the details.

     

     

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 19 May 2025 … Open Thread #58505
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Boys will be boys … that was a big wack but (s)he hits like a girl!

     

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 19 May 2025 … Open Thread #58234
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Lavrov opens a page – Russia is not stopping after its 100 km buffer zone. Now queue Medvedev. This is their last chance before complete surrender. (That would be Ukraine, not only the traditional Russian oblasts).

    Big Big change here.

    Kiev and its chihuahuas have always expected that Russia will take some and leave the rest intact – so has everyone – the proverbial Rump Ukraine. Looks like Russia is turning that certainty on its head. (I giggle .. how about the US finding that Russia is holding their so-called minerals mining agreements with Ukraine.)

Viewing 15 posts - 631 through 645 (of 1,266 total)