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  • in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59348
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Hi AHH, let me update the thinking a bit on 2 issues .. there is not enough time in the day.

    may be of interest to Amarynth, who was praising UNAFIL last year.. yes, there are honorable elements within them. But as with ALL UN/western NGOs, they are part of the shameless Big Club, working solely for one side in every Forever War”

    Unifil – we have changes. At the time when they did their job, the Lebanese government did not have its election (and they are totally emasculated now), and Hezbollah was still in the game. Hezbollah is now primarily focused on caring for its people. They will not be fighting. Israel itself has had a boost in that nobody is questioning their attempts to own the region but they must know they have the Gulf States behind them with a knife. So Unifil needs to work with the Lebanese army. OK you can ask me which Lebanese army of course haha .. Just recently the US and Israel said that Unifil is not necessary any longer. I’ve not seen that come up in the UN Security Council. We will see.

    We have to look at both sides .. Unifil as well as traitorous Lebanese army.

    So, we’ve had a massive change and then even a bigger one with the force happening to normalize with Israel overall. We are now questioning the stance of China and this Unifil has many Chinese soldiers while China seems to want to normalize unless they’re doing something in the background that is not visible. There is a long story there – Unifil has soldiers from 50 countries.

    Then, I said there will not be war against Iran for the next four months all things being equal (those four months have had a bite out of them already). I have since not fully changed my mind, but I am allowing space for a proverbial killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The space, opportunity and probability for such a proverbial oops has increased. The reason is easy to see in that Trump does not seem to understand that Iran has a trump card. He keeps saying ‘Iran has changed’ but seemingly he is either playing plausible deniability or he is just not informed. Given the extreme factional nature now of his administration, and the extreme desperation of finding a win somewhere, and Hegseth wanting to make a name for himself after crawling from the Red Sea, they may make an extreme error of judgement, but I don’t see any judgement. So, I rate an error much higher than what I rate a war against Iran. We will see at the negotiations on Sunday and that is if the region is not at war yet. One usually analyzes on the basis of the reasonableness of the other side. Well, that has undeniably and forever left the room and the other side is lashing out in pure malevolence having lost their own fear for their own skins – the wish for a win overshadows all calculus of reasonability. The Israeli vote today increases the possibility of ‘error’.

    OK, let me go and work.

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59346
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Any little pressure is good. There is internal hysteria, no matter the sides. This may also reflect on the eventual decision to hit Iran or not- Should the Knesset be disbanded, who takes responsibility for the new negotiations coming up on Sunday? It is a volatile time, so .. any little pressure may have unintended consequences.

    I’m not talking hope, I’m talking possible consequences in a tinderbox where anything could light a match.

    AlManar has a bit of a write up.
    https://english.almanar.com.lb/2430045

    Al Mayadeen also has something up – Just factual: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/netanyahu-s-gov–at-risk-as-opposition-decides-on-knesset-di

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #59340
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Just posted up at the War and Genocide thread. We have the vote today in Israel:

    In a joint statement, the Knesset opposition parties announced that they will place a bill to dissolve the Israeli parliament on today’s agenda, adding that the decision was “made unanimously and is binding on all factions.”

    “In addition, in coordination between all factions, it was decided to remove opposition legislation from the agenda in order to concentrate all efforts on one goal: to overthrow the government,” read the statement, which was released following a meeting of the opposition parties in the Knesset.

    Who knows the sequence of their process? Has Mahmood OD said anything yet?

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 10 June 2025 … Open Thread #59335
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Not sure how old that Gabbard tweet is Mr P.  I scrolled back quickly in her stream to around her confirmation day, but could not see it.

    What strikes me is that it says:  ” … So it is up to us, ordinary people, to speak up and demand that this madness stop.”

    If it is before she became part of the administration it may make sense, but currently?  Is it not up to the administration that she is part of?

    Anyway …

     

     

    in reply to: Spiritual Healing – june 2025 #59249
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Nice topic Nico.

    My interest has always centered around the healing therapies although nowadays I have to stay with the basics of naturopathics. But I did a few of the Donna Eden classes. A lot of fun, and if one knows a little about energy meridians, her work falls nicely into there.

    This is such a crossover of the eastern philosophies.  Those fellows knew about this stuff before we even opened our eyes.

    Home

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 30 May 2025 … Open Thread #59181
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Pure propaganda .. if a half Chinese person talks about the CCP, you know it already.  They don’t .. that is a western affectation as they, if they speak English and this one does, know that it is called the Communist Party of China, i.e., CPC.  You get folks that don’t know this sometimes, but one that professes to know .. it is a dead give-away.

    I went to look for Xi Jinping, and he is all over the place, certainly he is not quiet.  He was at this military funeral, shaking hands with family members on the 8th. No more and no less photos than usual and his stuff is not always full of pics.  It is usually one or two very beautiful pics formally released.   He also met the Myanmar leader on the 8th, and I have no idea why she says he is ‘scarce’.  The one site that she refers to that tracks his movements .. no idea what that is.  He is all over the Foreign Affairs site where I usually pick up, and all over Xinhua, that keeps a wide commentary on his doings – all over the Chinese military main site and all over the State Council Site.

    Propaganda for sure.  If I was not so certain, I would go and look for the meetings that she says did not happen, but, I am sure.  If there was an issue, it is not there now.  Xi Jinping wins again lol.

    Looking at the speaker’s credentials, it is all US.  There are no Chinese links like Weibo or any of the Chinese social media, and they are incredibly huge.  Her stuff is one of those anti-China think-tanks.

     

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 31 May 2025 #58872
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Trump fires three top pro-Israel officials amid reported rift with Netanyahu

    Merav Ceren, Eric Trager, and Morgan Ortagus were axed reportedly due to pro-Israel stances

    Two had been appointed by Mike Waltz — himself recently ousted

    Morgan Ortagus is the woman who caused chaos in Lebanon, telling them what to do.

    But another extraordinary thing .. Missiles into the Occupied Golan from Syria? 2 of them, more or less, at the same time as the Houthis’ missiles into Israel. A group calling itself the “Martyr Mohammed Deif Brigades” has claimed responsibility for the rocket attack on the occupied Golan.

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 30 May 2025 … Open Thread #58684
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Its good to listen to Sal. I have a few of those as well – just the ones that tell a different story and a different take on things.  I cannot always listen but it is good when I can.

    And even a bunch of grain on a ship falls over or is in a storm that takes down ship and cargo, can create damage unbelievable and costly – numbers that my head does not wrap itself around.  And for crude, wow.

    But Sal is wrong in one respect .. there is insurance – not your daddy’s ship’s insurance but there is a mechanism.  I picked that fact up one day but did  not stick around for the details.

     

     

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 19 May 2025 … Open Thread #58505
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Boys will be boys … that was a big wack but (s)he hits like a girl!

     

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 19 May 2025 … Open Thread #58234
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Lavrov opens a page – Russia is not stopping after its 100 km buffer zone. Now queue Medvedev. This is their last chance before complete surrender. (That would be Ukraine, not only the traditional Russian oblasts).

    Big Big change here.

    Kiev and its chihuahuas have always expected that Russia will take some and leave the rest intact – so has everyone – the proverbial Rump Ukraine. Looks like Russia is turning that certainty on its head. (I giggle .. how about the US finding that Russia is holding their so-called minerals mining agreements with Ukraine.)

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 19 May 2025 … Open Thread #58028
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Here is Kwan’s Korner with his 10 short videos for this week.  I usually check his selection during the week but Quan (Dr Quan Le) marches to his own drummer and I cannot always figure his reasoning for selecting something. We do chat from time to time and I’ll post anything material as I really vibe with him on principles (but not on his video selection always).

    https://jeffjbrown.substack.com/p/dr-k-has-added-10-hot-off-the-press?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc26e1c7b-aa1d-456e-8555-b98292090740_320x400.jpeg&open=false

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 11 May 2025 #57965
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Well the phonecall is on. Vance is saying a few things .. There are economic benefits to stop the war (of course with the US) but Putin will not get them if the war continues. Then, Vance is not sure if Putin has a strategy to’unwind the war’, and then goes into Russian manufacturing which is now manufacturing for war Vance says .. So Putin has no strategy.

    My money is on Putin. These kids are lost. Review Medvedev just for incase.

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 5 May 2025 … Open Thread #57916
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    Oh dear, slow down, lol. Quan sends out 10 videos a week, and I can seldom post one. He is working according to the lovely noise in his head, and I like the noise, but I cannot sing with!

    Here is Kwan’s corner: https://jeffjbrown.substack.com/p/kwans-korner-with-videos-on-india?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F414a700d-1ce6-49bd-b3a2-b9413200e01a_320x400.jpeg&open=false

    in reply to: Chronicles of the Apocalypse – 11 May 2025 #57899
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    This is not really apocalypse.

    I know the little town of Cuauhtemoc – that was Pancho Villa territory, and there was this little roadside restaurant that was dedicated to him .. photos all over and exhibitions – I got to love Pancho Villa, El Jefe. So, the name has meaning for me. Also a friend was the skipper of a 3-master tall ship – cannot remember if it was a schooner – for a huge multinational company, when they entertained the high and mighty. He skippered in those waters in all the tall ships parades. Good stories were told. Poor ship and poor sailors.

    in reply to: The Hearty Salon, 5 May 2025 … Open Thread #57898
    amarynth
    Keymaster

    For Mr P .. Those Estonian Pirates. Will Sal the Sailorman say anything?

    This from Slavyangrad Channel.

    Russia Detains Oil Tanker That Left Estonia, Report Says – Bloomberg

    Russia detained the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Green Admire, which left the port of Sillamae and was sailing through Russian territorial waters, Estonian Public Broadcasting said Sunday, citing the Estonian Department of Transport.

    The vessel is owned by Aegean Shipping of Greece and carrying shale oil on board. It was following a previously agreed route and its final destination was Rotterdam, according to the report.

    The incident happened three days after Russia sent a plane in connection with Estonia‘s attempt to stop a Russian shadow oil tanker.

    Ships leaving the port of Sillamae typically pass through Russian waters as the route is safer for large vessels than the passage between shoals in Estonian waters. Estonia’s Department of Transport said that it was the first such incident and that it will direct ships arriving in and leaving Sillamae through the territorial waters of Estonia to avoid a recurrence, according to the report.

    Two can play this game

Viewing 15 posts - 436 through 450 (of 1,066 total)