The expected Russian SMO redefinition or change in posture

From the Group of Friends – having done some sleuthing.  (Thanks Friends!)

Redefinition?  A more rapid escalation?  We do not know the shape of the change in the Russian Posture, which is now being openly discussed.  Reading the tea leaves this has been on the cards for some time now.   We have it from Mr.Lavrov and the Russian spokespeople who announced that Russia will now carry out more and devastating major strikes against Ukraine toward those structures that support the Ukrainian and European and NATO war effort.  But this redefinition or change in posture is going to be bigger than this.

These are the results of Friends Sleuthing:   

Ukraine has responded by attacking the actual atomic power plant area at Zaporozhiye NPP, and not just ancillary buildings;

To provide evidence for that Ukrainian response first:

S, 19 Jun 2026:

🇺🇦☢️ The enemy launched a massive attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant

– During the night, the transport department of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant was subjected to a series of attacks by UAF drones, the station reported.

– At least fourteen strikes were recorded. As a result of one of them, a fire broke out in one of the transport department’s boxes.

– Buildings in one of the boxes and the repair area were damaged. It is not possible to assess the full extent of the damage due to the ongoing high threat of repeated attacks.

– The attacks disrupt the operation of the station’s transport infrastructure, complicate logistics and personnel transportation, thereby creating additional risks for ensuring the safe operation of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.

– The station’s staff is taking all necessary measures to maintain the safe and stable operation of the facility. [end.]

S, 19 Jun 2026:

Zaporozhye NPP under systematic attack – Rosatom chief

On Wednesday afternoon, a drone strike on Energodar killed a Zaporozhye NPP employee directly responsible for the safety of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, said Likhachev.

Over several years, the AFU has escalated its aggression against the ZNPP. The targeted hunting of nuclear workers is an inhuman act by Ukrainian drone operators who do not grasp the scale of consequences.

The aftermath of attacks on the ZNPP could affect Ukraine, Russia, and much of Europe. [end.]

Now for evidence that Ukraine is being hit quite hard, some if being ‘shaping the battlefield’ and it will be of strategic significance:

To help understand the significance of these moves, although in general Putin is right that Russian troops are advancing along the whole front, there are 3 strategic areas that suggest priority plans.

1. Russian troops are in Sumy region, only about 10 kilometres from the city of Sumy, in a forest. An attack on the city of Sumy must be imminent, and if they take that city, that cuts off the main road between Kharkov and Kiev. I would expect Russia then to attack Kharkov.
2. The three towns in Donetsk Region that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) fortified between 2014 and 2022 are (South to North) Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Konstantinovka is already almost completely taken by Russian forces, and Russian forces are already advancing on Kramatorsk from the east. It will not take them long to get there. They are also heading past Konstantinovka by the east, apparently heading for a small town between Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, preparatory to attacking Kramatorsk from that side too, it seems. Regarding Slovyansk, they have already taken the small town of Liman, which is on a hill to the north, and so Slovyansk is already within artillery range of Russian forces from there. When these three fortified towns fall, there is little to stop Russia forces from going all the way to the River Dniepr in Ukraine.
3. In Zaporozhiye Region, Russian forces are close to taking the town of Orekhov. When that is done, there is a force waiting to the southeast of the major city of Zaporozhiye itself, and they will be able to attack as soon as they do not have to worry about being attacked on their left flank from Orekhov.

This last situation is probably why AFU forces have attacked the Zaporozhiye NPP directly. Russian forces have held that NPP since early on in 2022.

Here is an indication that the political pressure for a more rapid escalation is being expressed in Russia:

S, 18 Jun 2026:

State Duma Defense Committee First Deputy Chairman Alexei Zhuravlev: We must finally start fighting seriously and bomb the bridges.

He stated that the only way out is the destruction of the terrorist Kiev regime. To stop all these raids, Kiev’s capitulation is necessary – this is clear as day. How to achieve this is also obvious: wipe out all logistics, bridges, tunnels, bomb railway stations – we need to finally start fighting seriously. [end.]

Now a power station in Kharkov has been struck today, suggesting that Kharkov itself may be attacked later:

S, 19 Jun 2026:

Kharkov • Kholodnaya Gora station

The Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a strike with a dozen guided bombs on the Kholodna Gora station, where trains with fuel and weapons were located at the time.

In addition, a strike was carried out on the territory of the Military Institute of Tank Troops, specifically in the technical zone.

The force of the strike was such that as a result of the fuel detonation, more than 40 private residential buildings were destroyed and damaged. The area is cordoned off by the Security Service of Ukraine, and communications are being jammed there. Condotierro [end.]

Now the major city of Dnipro/ Dnepropetrovsk is being attacked:

S, 19 Jun 2026:

Dnepropetrovsk region • Solone settlement

As a result of a strike by Kabs and Iskander missiles, the “Solonyanskaya” substation with a voltage of 150/35/10 kV was destroyed.

Subsequently, the power supply was cut off for 180,000 subscribers in Dnepropetrovsk. [end.]

S, 19 Jun 2026:

Dnepropetrovsk – Nikopol

The main highway is under attack by our drone operators. Military equipment and cargo transport are being destroyed. [end.]

So all of this looks like preparation for a wider field of conflict than hitherto in the SMO.

—

Let me add two comments to the conversation:

1. There are changes in NATO.  Either the US is provoking NATO (Pete Hegseth’s comments in speeches calling it a  paper tiger) or the US is creating a facade to own NATO more than what it owns NATO now.  The US is intending to restart sanctions on Russian oil if they have not done it already and the EU has given the Ukraine another 90 billion to keep fighting mostly with imported fighters.  Mr Putin said at Spief that the SMO is reaching its end and the war is reaching its end.  From that moment, the Ukraine drone attacks increased markedly.

2. There is open discussion now in Russia on this posture change, and the population is keen!  They demand a change that will lead to the end of the SMO.  Nobody but Russia wants to end this war.  So Russia has to end it.  And that requires a change in Russian posture.  In the gossip circles it is said that General Sergei Surovikin, also known as General ‘Armageddon’, will be in charge of the operational aspects of the posture change.  This may only be an expression of the keenness of the Russians to speed this up.  Europe is trying to militarize by 2030 and by hook or by crook they want to keep the missiles and drones flying until they are militarized with a little help from Japan.

Yesterday morning Mr Putin had his regular Security Council meeting and Lavrov addressed it.  The formal Kremlin report says:  ‘Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a report on one of the areas of Russia’s foreign policy.’  It really is not hard to guess that this would have been feedback on the visit of a European negotiating mission  to Russia and Lavrov’s subsequent article that was spiked for publication in Europe.

He said:  “…Engaging Russia in dialogue has served as a diplomatic smokescreen for the geopolitical expansion of Western institutions, above all NATO and the European Union, eastwards, right up to Russia’s borders. ” 

Later on this article he states:  “Europe’s plan is to talk with Russia while simultaneously pressing ahead with a campaign of legal warfare orchestrated through the Council of Europe. Within this once-respected organization, an entire infrastructure is being assembled for the express purpose of “holding Russia accountable”: a Register of Damage, a Claims Commission, and a Special Tribunal. https://sovereignista.com/2026/06/18/article-by-sergey-lavrov-ukraine-europe-and-global-security-19-june-2026/

It is not hard to conclude that the Russian Posture Change will involve their stance vis a vis Europe.  This conclusion is then also borne out by the sleuthing of the group of friends as to conditions on the ground.