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Fog of War remains heavy. I suspect all four were served evictions, but Niger discretely publicized only Frenchie’s fate.. US State Dep may be lyin’ as usual. Let’s see what unfolds…
Meanwhile Frenchie makes bizarre public motion of demurral, refusing the eviction notice by the authorities in firm power. If this is not another impotent bluff, it may mean action is imminent.. Niger’s accordingly raised armed forces readiness to highest level.
Oh boy. Let’s buckle up.
Niger’s going no holds barred. It has additionally demanded the German and the new US Ambassador to also leave within 48 hours..
I need 36 hours per day!!
➡️ Dont tell me this is unrelated to L’affaire Prigozhin. Russia must be red hot angry, in addition to Moscow being droned every night now. What guarantees did it give to the Juntas? What’s enroute and going down???? Over and out
➡️ Also note today, Peskov cancelled Putin’s attendance in G20 @ India in 2.5 weeks, thought in part due to an imminent offensive. On which continent and against whom?
Some rumours say the culprit who placed the bomb in the Chef’s plane was the plane owner, who then ran to Alaska via Russian far east.. the brazeness of the attack on a Russian elite over Moscow itself, and after Biden threatened him with assassination, is too much. A response underway is likely, in light of the sudden dramatic change in Niger..
Let’s sleep on this. Heavy fog of war…
African Continuity and local Preparations
In Niger, the Sahel, and other African states in coordination with Russia, the name of the game is continuity. I disagree the killing of Wagner top team weakens Russia at all, in stark difference with MKB. As I showed in last Salon, Wagner was already on its way out in Africa, by active collusion of Russian Min of Defense and many receptive African states. Prigozhin’s last trip was a desperate move to stay relevant…
In fact, this change complicates matters for Empire. They will deal henceforth with open Russian state intervention, and more empowered African state armies, per wishes of Egypt and many, rather than the whimsical private military companies. They will be ground in Africa the way Ukies are ground in 404 — out of existence or into surrender. This will really start off efficient industrial hunting of desert marauders, other proxies and the legionnaires themselves. They will soon pine for the Chef they foolishly offed.
Meanwhile, Niger continues preparing for war..
Wagner PMC is being dismantled both in Belarus and in Africa…. brick by brick, no pun intended.
This is driven not only by necessity, an abundance of caution since what occurred, but demarches by Egypt and others rightfully concerned by unaccountable mercenary forces. Will a new foreign legion, explicitly coupled to Rus MoD arise? Time will tell. But there is a proven advantage to deploying auxiliaries putatively in the gray zone, matching the dastardly side.. a force multiplier. Let’s see the evolution and how it is rebranded
Ahhh, a picture worth reflection and many lines. A loyal Portuguese retainer sits at the end of the road. Epitaphs on mind. Ennui. Despondency. Futility. Failure. The Tide rolls on…..
Hi emerson, I don’t have comfort with Argentina. Hopefully Jorge can say something. He’s from a neighbor and was only one expecting they would join BRICS…
It’s likely a factional fight, as in Brazil? Pro- vs Anti-Empire. Some of those elites see themselves as constituent members of rootless supranationalists. Some are frank European nazis from WW2 ratlines. They do not see themselves having neither allegiance to new soil nor responsibility to their captive populations, which they abuse.
But the allure and heft of Argentina is worth it. Larch would understand it, and why he was equally sorrowful yesterday. Emerson, few nations enjoy the soft power and love worldwide — maybe wholly due to the exploits of their fútbol teams! Spunky short runts that conquered all! And such beautiful team colors, built on equally exquisite flag. Who hasn’t heard of Maradonna or Messi, top players in their sport’s history? So all this draws in the Global South.
And Russia via Lavrov said this explicitly, that they recruit leaders and influencers into BRICS, to help move multipolarity along. (Photo) Most humans are lazy, comfortable to stay in the unwholesome status quo, even in existential fights and facing the inflection point and opportunity of a millennia! So some will be dragged into multipolarity, and helped to abandon Hegemony, by the undeserved beauty of Argentina. It is immaterial much of its Oligarchs are satanic and neoliberal quasi-fascists. Even they follow their wallets towards China. And most youthful and impressionable nations will now find this a chic club, and run to join. Even imperial poodle Chile, and many other Latinos can be swayed to abandon Monroe Doctrine.
I do hope to see Venezuela and Bolivia next, two plucky warrior nations, who’ve survived much.
I was disappointed about Algeria too. But there is an opaque horse trading going on. Even Pepe didn’t know the very hour before they decided! I suppose among the priorities this time were (1) not to enlarge too fast so as to not risk devaluing the brand. Btw, Lavrov said they would keep the name “BRICS” as it is a good brand, and not keep changing it every 6 months or so, as they steadily expand. And China and Russia want rapid expansion, which is good.
(2) As this was “the Year of the African BRICS,” I agree Egypt and Ethiopia have priority. You need at least two more Africans, given the scale we discussed, and one at least from sub-Sahara. And since bringing in KSA-Iran duo was a priority, one also needs to bring in the UAE to avoid hissy-fits with falling behind its bitter rival KSA, that’s enough arabs and muslims. And UAE in the fold means less shenanigans for Little Sparta, as it will be forced to get civilized. And its deep wallets are needed.
Egypt is strategic. Location location location, at junction of Africa, Levant, Arabia and Asia. Suez. Along with Syria the moral and intellectual leader of Arabs. A proud civilization of countless millennia. Top army in Africa and bulwark against Zionist cancer entity which is its NE neighbor. It may replace Turkey as the Russian grain hub into Africa.
And it has to be dissuaded against war on Ethiopia due to the GERD dam over the contested Nile waters. And to help put out war in Sudan. It is as infiltrated as Brazil and Argentina by pro-Empire elements, both Muslim Brotherhood (created in Egypt by MI6!) and within military Junta too. Its currency and economy is as weakened and impoverished by usual suspects as is Turkey. Most Egyptian physicians have fled abroad to earn a living. They are strange nomads, like Cubans and Indians, among best docs in world, found throughout the world, especially in Arabia.
Here’s from informed Egyptian source, why he thinks they were selected:
So stabilizing beleaguered Egypt takes precedence over Algeria, which is largely OK. And there is slim to no chance Algeria will pivot to Empire, given its bitter French experience, and ongoing travails with Anglo-French terrorism and the Sahel crisis, as well as Moroccan perfidy. And Putin feted her President at SPIEF in June as summit central guest, and is selling an alleged $40 B (!!) worth of arms to Algeria. So is there a rush to cement Algeria within the brave new world?! They are already in the vanguard.
(3) We need deep pockets to fund the brave new world. China cannot do it alone. So I suspect, in addition to encouraging their abandonment of the Petrodollar, a key reason to bring in the GCC in the first wave is to help fund the NDB. This will be their contribution. We shall see
DEVELOPING
Wagner’s being eased out of Africa, at least under current configuration. Russian Mil making visits, knocking on state doors. Was the Chef’s last trip to the Sahel a desperate sales pitch, aware the clock was ticking?
We talked about this end of June. Russia would change its PMC model. Lavrov hinted at same. Even those Africans who elect to keep Wagner, it will be a fully controlled beast, no longer loose canons, with a new crew in charge.
