the situation is maturing for the beleaguered Russkie. Will the Horde declare war on them, as they did on the Germans in 1933?? The international jew will eventually have to, and come off their admirable dissembling to date. The passion of the worst requires total devotion, and submission, to the Moshiach

💠@imetatronink:
⭕ 🔻 RT: There is no chance Oreshnik will be intercepted by missile defense systems – Putin |media|
🔻 C2: He talks too much. The Russians have become a joke and just need to STFU.
🔻 WS: I interpret what he is doing as attempting to explain to a 2-year-old (i.e. western leaders) that fire is hot, and will burn you if you touch it.

The Russians understand that, to a great extent, they are dealing with immature, irrational actors for whom logic is not persuasive.
🔻 Mike Mihajlovic: Agree with you Will. I would just replace “2-year-old” with a “person with mental disability” because the majority of Western leaders behave like they have mental incapacitation. The reasoning is that a 2-year-old has a brain that develops and absorbs knowledge but the majority of Western leaders are exactly what they are – mentally impaired. where anything reasonable is bouncing from their brains
⭕ retweet:
🔻@ripplebrain: The article is up, and free |link|
🔻@ripplebrain: Update: A couple of people have sent me this 2023 report from Lost Armour, which shows a few of these impacts. Even more interestingly, it also shows that Google Maps’ provider seems to have patched over damage in multiple places in the plant with archival images. I have no choice but to buy an older scan from Pleiades to see if any of this damage is visible back in October. I’ll post an update with the results when they come in. https://lostarmour.info/news/posledstviya-2746?ysclid=m4vpuhe8fd521907809

I was really hoping to avoid this but whatever

Commentators over on LostArmour weighing in on whether or not I got scammed with old footage

I can’t rule out that they gave me a shot from 2023. But also:
🔻 @ConckcreteChris: Personally, I think the damage is underestimated because roofs are likely rather thin (I worked in Soviet built hall/workshop similar to that) and won’t resist much.

“Casette B” impacts show this well, here we mostlysee the entry wounds not the complete damage in the hall.
🔻@ripplebrain: That’s my impression too. The only time we see the real scale of the damage is when the impact causes every floor to collapse. These are pretty tall buildings, too. It may be that if a structure has multiple sub-basements it’s less likely to collapse at the impact site.
🔻 C3: The Yuzhmash plant was built in Soviet times and its design included underground floors. At Yuzhmash, there are 34 levels underground. They were probably the target, not the buildings on the surface. At the same time, Oreshnik was not loaded with explosives or a nuclear charge.
[so take home is much remains obscured of the damage by Oreshnik. Google, as usual, is lustily playing for the Home Team. But since the Test, the Silence and responses of the combined hyenas of Legion are sufficiently eloquent, speaking volumes]
⭕ 🧵 He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Grandson

And the load doesn’t weigh me down at all … |media|
🔻 WS: When it became undeniably apparent between his 2nd and 3rd birthday that my first-born grandson (now 9-years-old) was pretty severely autistic, I confess I was devastated — for his mother (my eldest) and for myself and my wife. |THREAD|
⭕🔻 Stellar Man 🇵🇷🇵🇸: 🚨PhD physicist and scientist weighing in on the Tartus, Syria plausible nuclear strike by Israel.

He posits the crater size which is approx. ~70-100ft radius, according to DoD guidelines on nuclear weapon yields and expected effects indicates a surface blast of 1.5-4kt.
🔻Armchair Warlord: The main takeaway I’ve gotten from this and many other similar incidents over the last few years is that sufficiently large quantities of conventional explosives packed up in a bunker in an ammunition depot can mimic a low-yield nuclear blast quite closely.
🔻 WS: The most amazing thing about the “mini-nuke” mania is we are required to accept that basically everyone now has them and is using them on a regular basis — NATO, Ukraine, Russia, Israel … even the Baltic chihuahuas are rumored to have some. 🤦‍♂️
[exactly. All these rumours are basically crap intended to bolster fear of the nazis, to burnish their psychological armor among lemmings]
🔻 WS: Crazy how, all of a sudden, everyone has mini-nukes, and no one hesitates to use them. 🤦‍♂️
🔻 C3: And any thoughts on the “PhD”, “physicist” who think a nuke was dropped?🙂
🔻 WS: “Man’s most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe.”
― Euripides
⭕🔻 no-nonsense: A fantastic bunch of words, with more hopium than the merican “generals” at bidens side.
Tell us where these godlike airframes will take off from and land at. Let me guess, you believe the carriers will be protected by……GOD?
The EU AF and bases will somehow elude hypers
[this is regarding the laborious crap posted by “Jake C” above in yesterday’s thread]
🔻 WS: I have since concluded that all “his” posts were created via ChatGPT (or equivalent). And this is not the first time I’ve seen that in my timeline.
🔻 Jake C: Screw you.
[LOL. AI kept it short and simple this time. Praise be the Lord!]

💠 @Sputnik Africa:
⭕ 🇺🇦💡❌Ukraine Restricts Energy System Information Amid Unexplained Challenges

Ukraine’s energy holding DTEK has announced a temporary restriction on providing “only minimal information on the state of the energy system.” No reasons have been disclosed for this sudden clampdown, leaving citizens and observers guessing.

Perhaps the silence speaks volumes. Could it be due to Russia’s precision strikes? It certainly doesn’t sound like Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is having a good day at the office. The Kiev regime, in its fervent zeal to erase all remnants of its Soviet past… toppling monuments, cancelling Russian language and media, and gutting institutions and now finds itself grappling with an ironic reality.

Ukraine’s Soviet-built power grid, famously constructed like a brick shit house, is now a glaring target in Russia’s systematic dismantling campaign. One could argue that Russia is simply helping Ukraine fulfill its de-Sovietization ambitions, aiding in the removal of the dreaded Soviet legacy, right down to the scorched remains of the grid. Ukraine might consider sending a thank-you note for this unrequested “help.”

While Kiev scrambles to spin resilience, the cracks in the system are showing. In the long winter of geopolitical reality, sovereignty fades fast when the power grid falters.

– Gerry
🎙 Subscribe @TheIslanderNews
⭕ ❗️ In response to the recent attack by Western missiles on the Russian southern Rostov region, the Russian military struck the Ukrainian security service [SBU] command post in the morning, the Defense Ministry reported

The targets also included the Kiev Luch Design Bureau and Patriot air defense missile systems. All objects were hit, the military department said.

💠 @Intel Slava Z:
⭕ 🇷🇺🇸🇾Russia continues to withdraw equipment and personnel from a support base located near the airport in the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria.

The footage shows how AMN-590951 Spartak armored vehicles and KamAZ-5350 trucks are loaded onto Il-76MD military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

At the beginning of 2024, the number of Russian military contingents in Syria, according to some Western media, was about 7.5 thousand people.  |media|
⭕ 🇷🇺🇺🇦❗️In response to the attack on the Rostov region, the Russian Armed Forces launched a group strike on the SBU command post, as well as on the Luch Design Bureau, which designs and manufactures Neptune missile systems, Olkha MLRS cruise missiles, and Patriot air defense missile systems — Russian Defense Ministry

💠 @DDGeopolitics:
⭕ 🇷🇺💬🇺🇦Peskov explains why Zelensky insults Putin, and is rude:

“Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to control himself lately. Apparently, it’s due to emotional overload, inability to pull himself together. That’s where such rudeness comes from. His nerves can’t take it.”
⭕️ 🇺🇦 The Luch Design Bureau is a major manufacturer of rocket and jet engines, parts, diagnostics and control systems.

Founded in 1965, Luch specialized in anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles and the sophisticated automated systems necessary to use them to their full potential.

The company branched out into air defense missiles in the 1980s, and produced major components for a wide variety of Soviet air to air missiles, such as the R-77.

Today, Luch produces the Neptune cruise missile, the same type which has been used on many attacks on Crimea, including an unsuccessful attack today, in which two Neptune missiles were intercepted near Sevastopol.

Their facilities and factories have been hit many times during the war, but this is the first time that their headquarters has been targeted.

💠 @Dmitry_Medvedev: 
⭕ The president of a large country must be extremely polite and correct (I know this from my own experience). Which was brilliantly demonstrated yesterday during the direct line by Vladimir Putin, who radiated confidence and calm.

That’s why he is the President.

But, to paraphrase the immortal definition of Mikhail Bulgakov, the most vile Bandera scum decided to show off his coolness in public insults. And, I assure you, not because his nerves gave out after the words of the Head of Russia about the duel of “Oreshnik” in Kyiv with Western air defense.

No. Insults are the middle finger (or, in relation to this character, his musical “organ” for playing the piano), which the expired drug addict scum showed … to Trump. Like, here you go, no negotiations with Russia, because with such relations they are impossible. You will continue to give money and weapons.

Such rhetoric frees you from the need to observe decency. The President said yesterday that negotiations with this creature are possible only if she legally returns to the post of head of state. The runt understands that this is unrealistic and is betting on war. But the unbridled bastard was wrong here too: no one needs him in the war, and he won’t hold on to his post for long. History will soon dump him in a cesspool of filth, which will swallow the nonentity in the suffocating miasma of oblivion…

💠 @Arab_Africa:  
⭕ 🇱🇾🇷🇺 Italian Defense Minister Concerned About Russian Military Equipment Transfer to Libya

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed his country’s concern over numerous reports and intelligence about the transfer of advanced Russian equipment from Syria to Libya.

“Russia is transferring its military component from Syria to Libya, which creates a security threat in the center of the Mediterranean. The Russian Armed Forces have transferred their fleet from the Tartus base to Libya. And this is very bad.”

The Italian minister’s concern is understandable. The European establishment was already on the alert in June of this year, when the Russian Navy ships, the missile cruiser Varyag and the frigate Admiral Shaposhnikov, entered Tobruk. At the same time, the mouthpieces of the Western groups of the country unanimously raised their voices, showing a visual aid to the range of Russian ships’ missiles to European cities.

“Russian ships and submarines are a constant source of concern for us, especially if they are, as they say, two steps away from us, and not thousands of kilometers away,” Crosetto added.
[Right next to Libya is Tunisia, and its old ruins of Carthage. In the year of Able Archer I stood on the beach of Carthage and could see the coast of an Italian island.. Libya is that close too. Italy has over 100 USUK bases. It is correct for Italy to worry about what comes. The last time Italy was liberated of nazis, “the Allies” reduced it to absolute rubble]

💠 @Sputnik Africa:
⭕🇹🇷🇸🇾 It is wrong to call what happened in Syria a “takeover,” Turkish foreign minister says on Trump’s recent statements

“First of all, let me say this: we wouldn’t call it a takeover because it would be a great mistake to present what’s been happening in Syria. For Syrian people it’s not a takeover,” Hakan Fidan said in an interview with Al Jazeera.

🇺🇸 US President-elect Donald Trump said December 16 he believes Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were the main actors behind the recent events in Syria that led to the fall of President Bashar Assad’s regime. Trump said Turkey “did an unfriendly takeover” of Syria.
[LOL. Are we defensive and feeling the cool breeze on plucked naked chests?]
⭕ 🇹🇷🇸🇾 Turkish troops might pull out from Syria under certain conditions, foreign minister says

💬 “There were two major objectives of Turkish presence in Syria. One is to prevent further mass migration to Turkiye, because under opposition control, still today, 5 million people were living under opposition control; and counterterrorism issues were primarily important for us. Right now, when we see that those two major concerns are eliminating, we have no reason to stay in Syria,” Hakan Fidan told Al Jazeera in an interview.

He said the new administration in Syria should be given some more time to see how events will develop.
[Yes. A Siberian squall hit the plucked]

💠 @Hamas/Tsahal:
⭕ Leader of Ansar Allah

The Zionist project aims to expand the direct occupation of Arab lands based on the plan of “Greater Israel”.

The Zionist project seeks to destroy the Arab countries and divide them into small titles and currents scattered within sectarian, national, regional and political groups.

The Americans are plundering Syrian oil and the Israelis are taking hostage all Palestinian wealth and have seized Syrian areas rich in fresh water and other resources.

Egypt is also threatened. The situation in Egypt can collapse quickly and the Zionist regime will destroy all the capabilities and powers of the Egyptian army as in Syria.
[I’ve recounted here for over a year the parable of the Three Bulls & the Lion. The Egyptian Red Ox is next. Cousin Erdogan and Orange Camacho are for Iran, Zion and the Muslim Brotherhood will focus south to dismember the unfit-for-survival and mad Egyptian Junta]

💠 @Fotros Resistance:
⭕ 🇾🇪| Leader of AnsarAllah Yemen Abdolmalik al-Houthi in his speech:

Israeli aggression against our country [Yemen] will never deter us from our position in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza. We continue to escalate, we are in a state of war and in open conflict with the enemy.
[Yemen understands the psychology of war. The fiercest recorded human civilization is cited in the Qur’an in the border area of present-day Yemen/Oman/KSA, buried under the sea of desert known as the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. They arose soon after the Flood and their evil may have exceeded Babylon. Anyway, note they sent missiles at Tel Aviv yesterday even as the bombers were streaking to savage Yemen, and today followed up with more on Zion’s capital, denying any satisfaction whatsoever. The torment of Yemen will never be shaken by the Anglo-Zionists, even after they nuke it]

💠 @ejmalrai:
⭕ More than ever, a temporary ceasefire seems possible in Gaza
⭕ ISIS is emerging in Syria, which means that the US is not happy with the change of power, not because Bachar al-Assad was its preferred candidate, but because Washington doesn’t want to lift its occupation of north-eastern Syria and allow the country to emerge stronger, because the recovery is incompatible with Israel’s interests.
⭕ Israel must be collecting intelligence information to concentrate its military attention against Ansar Allah in Yemen, similar to Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, with US and UK support.  [I wonder, was there an occult coup in Iran in May, after Reisi’s chopper incident?? They may be already decapitated, and this is the mop up phase of the arabs. Let us see if they do a True Promise III Op. We live in deceptive times. But Yemen can never be subdued for long, so they will be the bitter spark of regeneration and destruction either way, like baby Moses in the cradle-boat floating down the Nile to gently berth in the Palace of Pharaoh]

💠 @BhadraPunchline:
⭕ 🔻 Douglas Macgregor: BREAKING: Rumors emerging that NATO and the CIA were heavily involved in the assassination of top Russian General Igor Kirillov in Ukraine
🔻 MKB: Entirely plausible. The late General comprehensively exposed the US’ biological weapon programme directed against the Slavic race in the territories of the former Soviet Union
⭕ retweet:
The assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, investigating biolabs in Ukraine may have been conducted by the SBU, but @POTUS likely gave the go-ahead to protect his son, and to escalate.

This is a serious provocation. There’s no moral left in the current U.S. admin.

💠 @Syrian Girl:
⭕ The best people are the Yemenis   |media|
[This is true even for the putatively wealthier south Yemen. Mukalla had only a few hours of electricity per day.. Yemen cannot be subdued through conventional means. They’re already beyond the Ashes with nuthin to lose]
⭕ Whoever betrayed Syria, didn’t just betray the Syrian soldier, they betrayed the Russian, Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese soldiers that spilt their blood on Syrian soil.

~170,000 Syrian soldiers KIA.
~2300 Iranians soldiers KIA
~1200 Iraqi PMU KIA
~1139 Hezbollah KIA
~197 Russians soldiers KIA

It is with the soldiers that our loyalty and sympathies must lie above any leader. They give their lives trustingly and with a sincere belief in their cause. It’s they who we should never disparage.

Honour. Homeland. Sincerity.

💠@imetatronink:
⭕ 📜 Staggering Towards the Abyss
🔻 Jake C: I’ll give him that NATO has a severe munitions shortage, but NATO enjoys an overwhelming air advantage over current-day Russia. Even if F-35 turns out to be inadaquete (it may or may not), the US has the sheer numbers in proven platforms like F-15s, F-16, and F-18 to cover it.
🔻 WS: The “combat-capable” inventory is a minor fraction of the “on-paper” inventory. And, unless the US vacates every major base on the planet, not enough aircraft could be concentrated for a major air campaign.

And, of course, they won’t be permitted to assemble unmolested.
🔻 Jake C: There’s no reason to believe NATO’s combat-ready inventory is disproportionately low compared to Russia, and in the buildup to war the US can rebase Mainland air wings.

In a full NATO v Russia-China-NK showdown, the bigger threat to US air power will be the Pacific where the US could lose multiple carriers +Guam in the opening days. In Europe they hold a large (maybe decisive) advantage.
🔻 WS: It amuses me that people believe the US would be permitted to concentrate forces in eastern Europe preparatory to a campaign against Russia. And the US/NATO are effectively devoid of air defenses against Russian interdictory strikes. US logistics would be savaged.
🔻 Jake C: You notice his points are basically an updated riff on the reformers and fighter mafia, who were proven resoundingly wrong during Desert Storm in 1991. Yet somehow their arguments survive.
🔻 WS: Imagine believing there is any comparison at all between 1991 and 2025 when it comes to concentrating a massive expeditionary force in eastern Europe to fight a war against Russia. 🤦‍♂️
[even sadder is that we need to have these discussions, given the determination of the damned Fallen to continue the Drang at all costs]
🔻 WS: What a nonsensical and internally contradictory statement.

No munitions = no strike packages.

The biggest problem is that the US lacks magazine depth for both offensive AND defensive air war against Russia.
📜 Magazine Depth and Shields
🔻 Jake C: Munitions to fight war > munitions to cripple Russia’s air force.
🔻 WS: You are manifestly underinformed and/or misinformed about the matters in discussion, but I appreciate your naive enthusiasm and will therefore humor you a bit longer:

How do you imagine the US is going to achieve the objective of “crippling Russia’s air force”?
🔻 Jake C: NATO’s best strategy is aggressive strikes in the opening days of war. It is high-risk high-reward, but if they play too defensive they will take irrecoverable losses without meaningful gains.

This can be done with existing European air wings, but if the US had enough warning it can also mobilize mainland airwings to help (but as you said, this is far from guaranteed.)

The key is SEAD strikes. One of Russia’s biggest failures in the first weeks of Ukraine was inadequate SEAD + poor intelligence on AA positions, while NATO has consistently proven to be good at this. Many AA will be untouched and Manpads will be a major threat, but this overwhelming attack can buy an opening for strikes on airfields and other important infrastructure.

Effectiveness is hard to say. Some NATO aircraft will be turned away by AA, some Russians will get into the air, and many planes on the ground are protected by hardened shelters. The US will have to risk valuable aircraft: As the ME + Ukraine have shown, Arty and cruise missiles simply don’t work on airfields.

The NATO will take losses, but even a catastrophic 1-1 trade for NATO would put Russia in a terrible position. It is extremely likely Russia would lose most of its frontline aircraft. They’d be unable to contest the sky for months; replacing their current-gen planes will take time and their cold-war stocks are completely outclassed. Russia’s will also lose transports, AWACs, CAS, and infrastructure.

It will likely be much less: NATO could easily see 1-2 or up to 1-5 loss ratios (more than that is wistful thinking).
-Russia has already had losses in Ukraine.
-NATO non-stealth planes are at least on par with Russia’s and probably much better.
-At least some planes will be destroyed on the ground.
-Stealth is more likely than not to be an advantage.
-F-35’s abilities are up in the air, but if its stealth does work it will be a major strength.

What’s important is by the opening weeks NATO will enjoy a substantial air advantage and remaining Russian air would have to be very cautious.

That said, US probably couldn’t take advantage of it. They would use most of their ammo stock, so they can’t effectively support ground forces beyond a couple weeks. As the war goes on Russia can replace losses faster than NATO can so the advantage will also narrow. Despite this, NATO has no choice if it wants to negate Russian air power.

I can see a few reasons why this might fail:

-First Strike: If Russia strikes first (very likely) and NATO didn’t prepare (less likely). This would be the same situation but in reverse. NATO probably wouldn’t outright lose, but they’d be on the back foot for the rest of the war.
-Not enough damage/too many losses: NATO would still have an advantage, but not a helpful one.
-NATO is too conservative: it wouldn’t overwhelm Russia’s AA and they’d slowly bleed planes. Honestly, with how spineless the west is, this is too likely for comfort.
-Experience: many pro-NATO guys discount this. Russia’s gained valuable data in Ukraine, while NATO hasn’t faced a near-peer adversary in a long time. Huge weakness for China and NK too, but that is outside of this discussion.
-Incompetence: Always a chance NATO is stupid. However, they’d have to be significantly worse than they were just 10-20 years ago.

With all this said, a successful air campaign is very likely. The overall war would be horrific though, even without nukes, and again the US is in trouble in the pacific. The Pentagon/Kremlin are psychotic if they think this ends well for anyone.

I’ve replied in good faith and I expect the same courtesy returned. More insults will lead to a block.
[is this a RAND functionary getting quick ideas to run by or plagiarize from sharp minds?!!]
🔻 WS: I have no doubt you mean well, and that you genuinely believe in the awesome capability of the US air fleet to project power overseas in a major campaign against Russia in eastern Europe.

But here are the disqualifying facts to your entire set of arguments:

Contrary to your devout faith, the US simply could not achieve even numerical superiority over Russia in eastern Europe. They lack the logistical wherewithal to sustain even a short-term high-intensity air assault.

Even if all the air wings your fantasy envisions could be transferred to the battle zone (they couldn’t, of course), they could not be based and maintained. The facilities and necessary support staff do not exist.

Nor could the facilities they do have be protected from Russian strikes. Bases in Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. would be rendered inoperable within hours.

Refueling and ISR assets would be devastated within hours of an attempted US strike against Russia.

Russian long-range AD based in Crimea and Belarus would savage tankers and crewed ISR platforms.

Russian interceptor jets would launch AAMs far outside the range of their American counterparts.

There would be no dogfights. US attack aircraft would be shredded by the Russian IADS in the region.

You think F-35s and F-22s are going to penetrate Russian AD in order to launch SEAD/DEAD missions? This is delusion run amok. These “stealth” platforms can be detected, tracked, and targeted by Russian AD and airborne assets. Anyone who believes otherwise is deceived by Lockheed sales brochures.

And unlike US Patriot and THAAD systems, Russian long-range AD is highly mobile, and outranges ALL American anti-aircraft capability. By far.

There is no credible scenario in which the US could put up even 200 attack aircraft to mount a meaningful “first strike”. The Russians could put up far more, and every one of them would be armed with superior AAMs that considerably outrange American fighters.

The bottom line is that any US attempt to launch an air assault against the Russians would result in a shocking massacre.

The American people would be stunned. Much of the world would be stunned.

But anyone who is credibly informed on these questions would not be surprised in the least.
🔻 Jake C: The US’s abilities to project power are undeniable, if spread thin. The mere fact it has any presence in Europe or the Pacific demonstrate this.

-Numbers: NATO already has numerical superiority. Russia has an estimated 3900-4500 aircraft total, though we don’t know the true number. We can assume 4500 to be charitable. NATO absolutely exceeds this in Europe. While the forces in western countries like the UK, France, and Germany are further away from the East, they have the range and logistical capacity to play a part.

Further, Russia has no quality advantage to make up for it. NATO’s best planes are at least on par with Russia’s best planes, and many (somewhere between 20%-35%) of Russia’s combat planes are older. This is mostly their Attack aircraft, but many of their fighters are still Mig 29s, Mig 31s, and SU-27s. These can play some role, but can’t be expected to compete with their NATO equivalents and there’s a reason Russia is replacing them.

-SEAD:Many of the points also require repetitively discussing SEAD. NATO has repeatedly proven to be good at it and there is no reason besides being extremely uncharitable to doubt their capacity to weaken Russia’s AA capabilities. It doesn’t have to get rid of every AD site or mobile unit to be useful.

-Logistics: NATO’s logistical abilities are proven. Our forever wars in the Middle East were blunders, but they wouldn’t be possible at all without unparalleled logistics.

-Strikes on US Bases: The first strikes will be devastating to both sides. However, Russian strikes wouldn’t be 100% effective even if everything went right (nor would NATOs). They will likely be far less effective than that; they haven’t demonstrated this ability in Ukraine and they do not have the numbers advantage nor SEAD to conduct uncontested airstrikes.

-AD vs Tankers/other Support: On paper yes, but Russia AD systems have not shown this in Syria or Ukraine. How NATO deploys their support aircraft can mitigate this risk.

-AAM Range: Russia’s range advantage with the R-37 is entirely predicated on assuming stealth and ECM are non-factors, which the evidence so far says otherwise. Aside from that NATO missiles are on par, and the aircraft carrying them are at least on par if not superior.

-SEAD again and Stealth: The indictment against the F-35 and SEAD again prematurely assumes stealth is a non-factor, and it ignores NATO’s proven abilities.

-NATO Air Defense: I’ll give you this. NATO is well behind in this area and tries to make up for it with fighters.

-NATO operational numbers: Per above, NATO has the numbers. We can only estimate, but on the low end about 50-75% of their aircraft are combat capable at any given time depending on the Country/Unit. There is no reason to believe Russia’s rates are significantly higher. Some say Russia’s rate is lower, but I haven’t seen the evidence behind this either.

To look at the evidence and say it would be a massacre for NATO is absurd. It requires extremely charitable interpretations of Russian abilities and dismissing all of NATO’s demonstrated -let alone claimed- capabilities to reach that conclusion.

I find the lack of nuance very telling. At no point in this discussion have you have acknowledged any of NATO strengths or Russia’s weaknesses. Meanwhile I am willing to call out NATO’s failings and steelman Russia to arrive closer to the truth.

Despite what you may think of me I don’t even like NATO that much and I not some zealot who’s frothing at the mouth to kick the door in to the capital of (insert Russia, China, or Iran). But to pretend NATO doesn’t have a very capable arsenal is to deny reality.

Regardless, beyond perhaps 1-2 more replies it may not be worthwhile to continue this discussion much longer. I doubt we’ll change each other’s minds and I’m sure we both have better things to do with our time.
[WS didn’t bother to reply. After all, what can one say to such??]
🔻 C2: Also the paradigm has fundamentally changed. Deep strikes into defended enemy territory using manned aircraft is an out-of-date way of waging war. As Alistair Crooke observed recently, the age of air power is coming to an end and is being superseded by the age of missile power.
🔻 Pandem(on)ical Order of Good Cheer: Hard to discern anything you might have missed but–
– 3 of RF’s most likely allies were never INF signatories–RF would have inexhaustible land-based intermediate missiles; US, not so much.
– scenarios seldom incl. strikes on US–exploit weak US territorial defense, energy, etc?
🔻 C4: They are already supply constrained on cruise missiles – many or most which are analyzed from current strikes have production within the year, if not within several months. This, plus lower use rates than early war indicate a depletion of stockpiles.
🔻 WS: There is ZERO indication of supply constraint for Russian missile stockpiles. There is conclusive objective evidence to the contrary.

Just ask the entire Patriot brigade (radar unit and four launchers) that was destroyed a few days ago by a salvo of Iskanders.
🔻 Pandem(on)ical Order of Good Cheer: What must be true in order for my prejudices to be valid?
🔻 WS: The sun must rise in the west and set in the east.
[Ha! Imran Hosein would tell ya this Sign has already occurred, and is being reversed even as we see]
🔻 C4: We have whole divisions in Eastern Europe. Not to mention it’d take the Russians a while too – or did we just forget about that time we *told* Ukraine Russia was planning something?
🔻 WS: “whole divisions” 🤣

The US could not assemble 250k well-equipped combat effectives in eastern Europe if they were granted a year to do so.

Russia has at least 800k battle-hardened and abundantly equipped combat effectives in the theater RIGHT NOW.
🔻 C5: So the USUKEU knowingly sacrificed Ukraine to try to hurt Russia

Bribing UKR politicians, officials, generals etc to get them to sacrifice their country

Now re risk of a new NATO-Russia war:

Of course it’s lunacy to think NATO could win

But what if Europe is the next Ukraine?
🔻 C4: Don’t write Ukraine off, Russian equipment utilization rates indicate that by 2025-2026 they will have major supply issues, at a most conservative estimate. Meanwhile, NATO out masses both fighters in terms of every weapon and troop numbers hugely, and in quality too.
🔻 WS: You are spouting delusional nonsense.

US/NATO weaponry has been humiliated in Ukraine. European NATO is effectively demilitarized. The US could not assemble a sufficient force in the theater if it emptied every base on the planet.
⭕ ‼️ Exercise in Futility

4 Storm Shadow and 10 ATACMS missiles were launched towards Rostov earlier today. All 14 were shot down.

This war has now become a pathetic exercise in futility for the US/NATO and its hapless Ukrainian cannon fodder.
🧵 Empty Quiver
[this was yesterday’s latest provocation, for which today VVP challenged to defend Kiev from upcoming Oreshnik visits..]
🔻 C1: How can you reliably state that all 14 were shot down. There are a lot of conflicting reports from both sides about the success or otherwise of missile strikes.
🔻 WS: The US itself has admitted it.

The aggregated evidence, over the course of well over a year now, attests that the Russians have been defeating 90%+ of ATACMS, SS/SCALP, and GMLRS since late 2023, and throughout 2024.

The Storm Shadows in particular have become useless.
🔻 C2: In your opinion, has the West weakened Russia?
[Yes indeed. on this question hangs the future existence of the combined West. All calculations to the Q were YES, for the Moshiach’s Drang shall proceed either way..]
🔻 WS: Russia is substantially stronger now than it was three years ago: militarily, economically, and diplomatically.

In my estimation, Russia now wields the single most formidable and battle-hardened military force on the planet.

They are unbeatable in their own neighborhood.
[Oh come on Will! You’re a spoils sport. Give those being gleefully Suicided some hope]
🔻 C3: “China, if not as fully proficient as Russia in every respect”
And, assuming that’s true, even that doesn’t matter because China just has *scale*, in a way no other country has ever had.
[in response to linked Empty Quiver article]
🔻 WS: The world marveled at the production capacity of the US during WW2.

US industrial production strength in the 20th century pales in comparison to Chinese industrial production capacity in the 21st century — by an order of magnitude.
🔻 WS: [in response to stream of nonsense between Chinese vs US “scales” and future prospects]
This is all a moot issue.

We have now reached the end of the beginning of the Third World War.

And the US could not defeat any one of its major adversaries (Russia, China, Iran), let alone all three in concert.
📜 All for One and One for All
🔻 C4: China has been in a 17 year Bear Market, as opposed to the US 17-year Bull. But look out when this flip flops. Sometime in the 2030’s China will be acknowledged as the de facto industrial AND financial capital of the world.
🔻 C3: Noone cares about the CN stock market. In fact, the insane profits of US companies are a detriment to its development.
Meanwhile CN’s ruthlessly competitive market causes companies to tear each other apart, and in the process generate an insane rate of innovation & efficiency
🔻 WS: Few appreciate this reality.

Just as few understand that an economy based on the production of tangible stuff is far more potent and resilient than an economy based on the hyper-financialization of largely intangible paper assets.
[even Will doesn’t appreciate the underlying reliance on genocide of entire societies and continents to maintain/create markets, both foreign and domestic. What about the karmic resilience of such satanic paradigms?!]
⭕ 🔥 Medvedev on Fire

The celebrated Russian poet Dimitry Medvedev waxes grandiloquent on war and vengeance.
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/551
🔻 C1: …a lot happens in London.
So be it.
🔻 C2: I understand the sentiment for vengeance but I hope they don’t do it. The timing isn’t coincidental. US MIC wants a wider war asap. The reality of the battlefield & the discomfort they feel over an incoming president they don’t fully control; their elixir is a wider grander war
🔻 C3: If the Russian state makes a threat against you that should be very worrying
🔻 C4: I hope he does WSJ next
🔻 C5: Would this fall under “put up or shut up”time? Like True Promise 17.5? The Empire on the brink of losing it all, will not succumb to reason. I hope the Russians, Iran and China fully understand this. As it will be them who must eventually pull the trigger. Empire, wounded beast
⭕🔻 Lee Slusher: Am I still a lunatic now that The Atlantic agrees?

Better yet, why do they agree now? Curious timing.
🔻 WS: Thing is, we’re now over a quarter-century into the crumbling process, which coincided with the advent of the so-called “end of history”.
⭕ 🤦‍♂️ This is the caliber of people Trump has assembled in his foreign policy team.

As a class, (and with the sole exception of US senators) retired US flag officers attest a higher incidence of imbecility than any other subgroup in American society. |media|
🔻 C1: If Kellog gets work anywhere except McDonalds, it will be frightening.
Maybe even McDonalds.
🔻 C2: Yup. His team is composed of people with Cold War brain lesions and/or red heifer death cultists.

We’ve discussed before that soon, the dropping of masks would be necessary in order to openly wear “the Black Hat” and justify the transition to “Rules-based Terrorism.” This is being is done.. inaugurated by Zion and the UkroNazis.. and the western presstitutes start the process with cheering them on with decapitations of Russkies and Hezbollah. It’s gonna get much worse

💠@Yemen | Bab-el-Mandeb:
⭕ A significant event is occurring right now in the Red Sea…

– Intense clashes are taking place between Yemeni forces and the American aircraft carrier, along with several American and British destroyers in the Red Sea.
⭕ Exclusive sources: Massive explosions are being heard in the Red Sea, with reports of naval clashes and extensive attacks carried out by the armed forces of the Sana’a government against the aircraft carrier and several American destroyers.
⭕ With hypersonic ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, American warships and destroyers off the coast of Yemen are reaching deep into the Zionist entity under fire.
[by “reaching” maybe they mean “retreating”?? This carrier battle group (CBG) may be positioned in the upper Red Sea near the Suez (as far as possible from Yemen) in order to serve as air defense shield for Zion. Many drones have been getting through Egypt’s territory, then eastward over the East Med into Zion – maybe Egypt lacks the coverage in certain places, or is sitting on two chairs.. On the other hand, if the CBG continues steaming south.. pray for Yemen. Recall the first Admiral chased off (USS Ike?) openly asked for “looser engagement protocol” to paraphrase]
⭕ The Ansar enter through the Gate of the Column.

💠@Strategika51:
⭕A photograph that needs no comment, so blatant is it: meeting between Turkish diplomatic chief Hakan Fidan (right) and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in Cairo, Egypt.
One of them has been plucked, thinking he’s more astute than the other.
It’s going to get pretty rough over the next few weeks.
[Yes indeed. Life has become MOST interesting for the Sultan & his Gang]

💠@imetatronink:
⭕ American Military Might, with fries and a coke.
🔻 C1: lets not forget diversity
⭕ 🎹 Christmas Medley

A short of medley of Christmas tunes for your holiday enjoyment. |media 01| |media 02|
⭕ 📜 Worthy Read 

That said, I am much more persuaded than is Jim of Vladimir Putin’s prudent cunning and farsighted wisdom, and also much more convinced that the Russians will be boldly resolute in seizing the full measure of strategic depth their victory in this war affords them. |worthy article|
🔻 Jim Jatras: “I am much more persuaded than is Jim of Vladimir Putin’s prudent cunning and farsighted wisdom” – that’s fair. What puzzles me is that anyone thinks that any deal, if there is one, would be honored by the West.
🔻 WS: “Honored” has nothing to do with it. Raw power is all that will matter going forward, and for many years to come.
🔻 Jim Jatras: That’s not necessarily so. Even the most powerful need to exercise judgment. If someone has power That’s not necessarily so. Even the most powerful need to exercise judgment. If someone has power but declines to apply it because they mistakenly think they have a deal with proven liars, power alone is of little value. Again, we’ll soon see.power alone is of little value. Again, we’ll soon see.
[well said indeed. This is the fatal weakness of all the civilizational-states, the chink in the armor being used against them all, “but declines to apply it because they mistakenly think ..” This is the small space being repeatedly wedged into a wide gulf through which Legion marches day and night to accomplish their many tasks]
⭕ ‼️ More of #TheImaginaryWar

The post linked below is a typical specimen of the utter nonsense that wafts around the interwebs and gets uncritically regurgitated by disinformed dopes.

It is based upon no research stretching beyond the post hoc manufactured narrative quickly cobbled together by Israeli propagandists in the aftermath of their otherwise ineffectual “retaliation” for Iran’s shockingly impressive “True Promise 2” missile attack of October 1, 2024.

There is ZERO credible objective evidence that ANY “Russian-made anti-air weapons” were destroyed in Iran.

Israel suffered “no losses” because not a single IAF aircraft penetrated Iranian airspace.

And there is ZERO credible objective evidence that Iran suffered ANY strategically meaningful losses of their air defense array.

The only “loss” of an AD system objectively attested in the available post-strike open-source BDA imagery is of an antiquated Shah-era US-made Hawk system, which was obviously used as a decoy.

Was there meaningful damage inflicted, but not attested by the available BDA imagery? Possibly. But there is no credible objective evidence to that effect, and no secondary indicators to support such a conclusion.

#TheImaginaryWar is the only kind of war Israel could ever hope to win against Iran.
[links:
“F-35s were able to target and destroy Russian made anti-air weapons in Iran just a couple months ago, with no losses.

We should give Ukraine a couple of them.”]
🔻 C1: Is this hogwash? |Asia Times Cope|
[Good God. Dear Pepe got out just in time. The hedgefund Rats are in charge @AT]
🔻 WS: No Israeli aircraft overflew Iranian airspace.

And no credible objective evidence ever emerged supporting the assertions that ANY S-300 installations were damaged, let alone destroyed.

The reasons the Iranians have not rushed to counter is because they know everyone that matters knows that the Israeli retaliation achieved nothing of substance, and therefore the Iranians retain escalatory supremacy.
🔻 WS: It has always befuddled me that so many otherwise seemingly sensible people believe Stephen Bryen is a credible source. In my estimation, he is a clueless clown at least 90% of the time, and the other 10% is suspect.
[Younger Alex, in case reading this – give memo to Elder Alex]
🔻 C2: Or he is just a salesman.
🔻 C3: Truth, facts, cogent logic, detailed in-depth analysis are totally unimportant when it comes to propaganda. Embellishments, lies, partial/contorted statistics, and utter bullsh*t is the order of the day to pump Empire narratives.
And they get paid for this garbage.
⭕ 🤦‍♂️ It never ceases to amaze me how many of the people pretending to be informed commentators on the current wars and military matters in general are, in fact, woefully disinformed as to battlefield realities.

They are nothing but parrots of the prevailing propaganda narratives.
🔻 WS: And, just to be perfectly clear on one point:

Israeli aircraft NEVER crossed into Iranian airspace. They launched a few missiles from extreme stand-off positions, and the missiles that reached intended targets failed to achieve any strategically meaningful strikes.

F-35s have never yet, in ANY theater of battle, even attempted to penetrate air defense coverage areas.
🔻 C1: My son-in-law is a USAF fighter pilot, and when I mentioned this, he found it laughable. “Russian weapons are old junk, anyone using them will lose against our stealth jets.” I know why he has to believe this, but for my daughter’s sake I hope he never has to find out IRL.
[might as well drink the koolaid lads. It works like euthanasia or hashish. You are gonna be suicided one way or the other. Watch the UkroNazis to see your fate]
🔻 WS: I find it absolutely astounding that a USAF fighter pilot could seriously believe such nonsense.

I’ll permit retired USAF fighter pilot Col. John Venables to explain further: |media|
🔻 C1: He’s young, and as far as I know, hasn’t flown any real missions in a war zone. I don’t know what they taught him at the Academy; you’d think they’d want their best and brightest knowing the realities they will be up against, good or bad.
🔻 WS: All I can say is I am thoroughly convinced that Russian combat aircraft would prove highly capable against any airframes in the US fleet — of which few would penetrate the layered Russian AD.

If the US ran a big crewed strike package against Russian IADS, it would get savaged.
⭕ [cont. thread]
‼️⚡️ F-35: The Endless Comedy of Errors
🔻 C1: The F35 is primarily designed for suppression of enemy air defences, the Israeli’s used them to great effect against Iranian S300 SAM missile batteries.

It’s also a pretty decent air superiority fighter, although that’s not its primary function.
🔻 C2: You getting too much western propaganda
🔻 WS: It’s all just silly talk.

The very idea of the F-35 trying to run SEAD/DEAD missions against Russian AD is only exceeded in silliness by the idea of the F-35 trying to play the role of “air-superiority fighter” in Russian skies.

It would be a massacre.
⭕ retweet of his old:
Chinese PCL191 Multiple-Launch Rocket System

These are huge rockets for a launcher that can fire 8 of them in seconds.

A single battery of these behemoths consists of 6 launchers — 48 of these 370 mm precision-guided missiles, with a range of 500 km!
[what are the odds nazis will be tasting some soon??? They can call Papa Xi for tweaking the sauce – a little more garlic, or less salt..]
🔻 C1: Big punch stuff with a range to cover major Taiwan air bases.
[Taiwan Straits a mere ~100 km. Jeff Brown, duck!]
🔻 C2: Why don’t you ever talk about the B1 like this?
🔻 WS : Because it’s a long-obsolete bomber that shows up like a school bus on a radar screen and would be blasted out of the sky in moments if it ever encroached upon Russian, Chinese, or Iranian air defense systems.

Other than that, I’m sure it’s fun to fly. 🤣
⭕ I am not proud of my capacity for cold-blooded ruthlessness, but damnit, sometimes my preference for mercy fails me.
[Yeah, tell that to the overcivilized civilizational-states too!]
🔻 C1: Beer for my Horses 🐎 i have envy for the time men could just take care of things. Makes me recall one of my fav parts/quote from Lonesome Dove “I hate rude behavior in a man” amd Gus slaming the bartender in the face with a gun.
🔻 WS: I bred this horse from one my mares, and trained him from a baby. He had his fine points, but I eventually sold him and kept his half-brother as my personal horse.

A man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do in the moment he’s gotta do it. There ain’t no point in fretting about it.
⭕ [cont. thread, from Nov 30]
🔥 And the Flames Went Higher …

So, in bold defiance of the indisputably impressive Oreshnik missile strike, the US and its Ukrainian orderlies launched 13 more ATACMS missiles into Russia.
🔻 C1: The old Soviet Union was a great power until, overnight, it was gone, simply vanished to everyone’s surprise. ‘How could this happen?’, everyone exclaimed! Such a super power and then, simply gone. One would think that history does not repeat itself but one would be wrong. Just as Syria was gone in a day, so could mighty Russ once again simply cease to exist, again in one day.

🔻 WS: You have misread the signs of the times.

Alas, Babylon …
⭕ ‼️ CSG-8 (USS Harry S. Truman) boldly sallies forth into the Red Sea.

Not since the USS Brave Sir Robin skedaddled from those waters has a US carrier strike group dared to go there again.

Maybe the Yemeni will permit them to pass unmolested.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.
🔻 C1: Syria land grab in full swing. Turkey feels entitled to Syria & in my opinion, will not back down this time. In a hot war situation US/Israel vs Turkey does Turkey immediately gain the home advantage expelling both US and Israel? Logistically it would be a nightmare for the US
⭕ China has been buying up massive amounts of gold for many years. China is also the world’s largest gold producer.

People whose expertise in these matters I have long respected believe China sovereign gold holdings are now well in excess of 20,000 tonnes.
[links:
“🔻zerohedge: China Secretly Buying Up Massive Amounts Of Gold, 10x More Than Officially Reported: Goldman” |story| ]
🔻 C1: Will, I saw this video last week. Everything sort of clicked for me. I believe this cat is correct. Western Elite are trying to pump up BTC to break Gold and by extension China. It correlates to what that Saylor guy said a couple weeks ago. |media|
🔻 WS: “break gold”?

That’s just silly talk. Gold is the eternal element. It cannot be “broken”. It is the thing that remains unchanged when everything else gets broken.
🔻 C2: China has tens of thousands of tonnes of gold. In this new world those with the most gold decide everything, whether anyone likes it or not
🔻 C3: Indeed. Indeed. |RAVING LIES|
🔻 C2: If you believe those figures I have a golden harp to sell you.
🔻 WS: I would bet Fort Knox is empty. All US and Canadian gold reserves are “in situ”. Both countries will eventually nationalize all the mines.
⭕ So … the bounty on al Jolani’s head is a paltry $10M – pocket change compared to the mountains of cash swirling about in Ukraine.

My question is: what is the current bounty on Erdoğan’s head? 💵💵💵
[the jews in Zion promised the Sultan he’d get the Saddam treatment .. swinging on a rope…]
🔻 C1: No bounty on Erdogan’s head. He is the BEST asset for the USA/NATO, for the British and for the Zionists. Yusuf Dikec w Erdoğan, Aug 2024. |media|
[former best now. Trump’s roaring like a bull elephant in musth, signaling the turning by the Moshiach’s gang onto themselves]
⭕ 🔻 C1: NATO is going to play a more direct role to ensure the war against Russia doesn’t stop under Donald Trump. Reuters reports that NATO is taking over coordination of Western military support to Ukraine.

The protection racket will continue to bleed European vassals and fatten the US military-industrial complex.
🔻 WS: Ti paghi lu pizzu, o altrimenti …
⭕ 🔻 Wall Street Mav: Aircraft Carriers are obsolete. They cost billions of $$$, the planes on them cost billions of $$$ and it takes thousands of people to operate them.

It doesn’t take a Ford class Aircraft Carrier to project air power around the world these days. Much smaller ships can carry hundreds of drones which can accomplish the same task.
🔻 C2: Navy Sailor here @WallStreetMav doesn’t know what he is talking about nor has he served in the navy.
🔻 WS: 📜 Dinosaurs of the Deep Blue Sea

⭕🔻 Daniel Davis Deep Dive: This is embarrassing to me. The West and Ukraine actually believe that an assassination of a top RU general is going to make Moscow quake? It sends a crime-lord-like msg to Putin that “you aren’t safe anywhere” and this is supposed to frighten Moscow?

I fear such arrogance is going to be exposed soon, and the far more likely result isn’t a frightened Russia – but an angry one. It seems likely to me that Putin will respond in kind, and some Ukrainian senior leader who is alive as I type these lines, will soon be assassinated himself.

In any case, Russia holds all the military and diplomatic cards in its war with Ukraine. The conflict has already reached the terminal phase, and its only a matter of time until it comes to an ugly end (for the West in general and Kyiv in particular). It needn’t have come to such an ugly end, but arrogance in the West/Ukraine have condemned this to be the outcome (for example, the war could have come to an end in April 2022, saving hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives).

Alas, arrogance often has a way of numbing the purveyor until the pain and price paid is dear indeed…
[links the WSJ rag:
“The Wall Street Journal: By bringing the fight to Russia, Ukraine is raising the immediate costs of the war for Moscow’s leaders” |story| ] 
🔻 WS: They have sown the wind …
🔻 Daniel Davis Deep Dive: I fear u are right, friend. 😖
⭕ 📜 Sowing the Wind
This article from July 19, 2022 anticipated events well over a year in advance of their realization, and continues to be relevant even to the present day.