Short Brazil update ..

Here’s how the game works: Flávio Bolsonaro tells voters one thing in interviews, speeches and on social media. His team tells financial market players something else entirely. Those are the same players betting heavily on his presidential win. Whatever the candidate denies, the warning has already been given. If we fall off the cliff again, this time no one will be able to say they were deceived.

Flávio Bolsonaro with his friend and former tantric yoga instructor, Argentinian President Javier Milei (Photo: X)

When Jair Bolsonaro took office in 2019, he quickly began showing his true colors. He dismantled one government policy after another. Many of the people who had voted for him later said they felt deceived, that they hadn’t expected any of it. They hadn’t expected social programs to be suspended or gutted. They hadn’t expected a green light for deforestation. They hadn’t expected the militarization of public administration or a diminished Brazil on the world stage. And that’s not even counting what he did during the pandemic: refusing to buy vaccines in time, mocking patients who died gasping for air, denying the need for social distancing, and everything else that followed.

Now comes the son. His goal is unmistakable: carry out the neoliberal program that financial market sharks have been chasing ever since they helped bring down Dilma Rousseff. Publicly, the candidate talks about cutting “excess” and fighting corruption to shrink public spending by around $48.5 billion. But his spokespeople in the world of the wealthy leave no room for doubt.

Here’s what they’re actually planning, and have been for some time: decoupling retirement benefits from the minimum wage. This would affect retirees who earn the equivalent of one minimum wage, more than 60% of all retirees. They intend to extend that same rule to recipients of the Continuous Cash Benefit program, which supports low income elderly and disabled Brazilians. Other benefits tied to the minimum wage would also be affected, including unemployment insurance for domestic workers and the seasonal fishing subsidy.

Flávio also denies any intention of touching the constitutional spending floors that guarantee funding for health care and education. That’s a lie. His own advisers know it’s impossible to cut $48.5 billion just by trimming minor expenses. Cuts of that size would require going after the budget’s biggest line items: pensions, education and health care.

Lula fired back immediately. He said his opponent actually intends to cut straight into the lifeblood of ordinary Brazilians. That message will need to be repeated every single day of this short runoff campaign. The goal is to reach the voters who stayed home in the first round, voters who may now hold the key to his reelection.

Flávio is also being misleading when he says he would revive his father’s National Privatization Plan, but cautiously. That’s a lie too. What he actually intends is to wield a chainsaw like Javier Milei’s to privatize state assets and slash spending.

Tereza Cruvinel was a student union leader during the repressive years of Brazil’s military dictatorship who is currently a columnist and commentator for Brasil 247. She is the founder and former president of Brazil’s public television network, EBC/TV Brasil, and a former columnist for O Globo, Jornal do Brasil, Correio Braziliense, RedeTV and other outlets. She has long been recognized as one of Brazil’s most talented journalists.

This article first appeared in Brasil 247, was translated by Panamerican Dispatch with authorization from the author, and can be read in its original Portuguese here.