Nation States will Fall
From Amarynth
The burning of the UAE oil terminals (the one is the 2nd biggest in the world) will make the UAE fall as a nation state. It may be a warning for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Iran understood that the UAE worked with the US and Israel and was their enemy during the war. (Trump calls it now a mini-war). Iran will not let the UAE survive in its current form. It is by no means clear that the missiles that shot into the oil terminal and bunkers, Fujairah Oil Terminal, was from Iranian origin. I am of the opinion that it was a false flag that failed spectacularly. For the purpose of this post, it is not necessary to debate whether the UAE is a real nation state or not, it does not matter.
The CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper stated:
- UAE has exceptional capabilities and is well-positioned to defend itself
- UAE has been a great teammate of the US
- Iran’s military capabilities dramatically degraded, but “doesn’t mean it’s all gone”
So, we have news for him. When Iran is done with the UAE, it will be all gone, on the UAE’s side and perhaps more: Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The security of the UAE is an integral part of Egyptian national security, and we emphasize the close and organic link between the security of both countries and the entire region.
The Iranian leaders are not making big speeches today. Their comments are contained and devastating:
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on today’s events:
“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis.
As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.
Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”
I expect that the UAE will be the first nation state to tumble in the world’s move to multipolarity and will probably be absorbed by a neighbor.
The second will most probably be Ukraine. Listening carefully to what Russia is saying it does not currently appear that Russia will stop the SMO after the small area of the Donbas region (approx 10% last time it was reported), is back in Russia’s hands. The threat that Russia leveled at Ukraine today, when the ceasefire for two days for the Victory Parade was announced, speaks of a continuation of some kind; perhaps a redefinition. Ukraine is now really toast. Of course Russia is being attacked deep into its territory now as drone technology made this possible. President Putin and the Russian Defense Ministry announced that should Ukraine meddle or attack during the Victory parade celebration, Russia will attack into the center of Kiev. Given the rhetoric towards the EU on re-arming, if this happens it may be a signal, a small demonstration for France, Britain or Germany, should they continue their path to more war against Russia.
More will fall. Over the past two years, I’ve mentioned many times that countries need to be working on a strong governance ability and get organized. Can you think of any that actually did that? Or did they try and work with the US on Tariffs because that seemed to be the easier path.
Then, we have the economic side. Michael Hudson mentioned today again: “A renewed guns and butter debate is overdue as reported Iran war costs obscure the true economic burden, long-term debt, and diversion of resources from social investment, with hidden expenses in military replenishment, interest payments, and global economic fallout pushing costs into the trillions.”
The small piece on China that we posted just a while ago looks to me like an economic ring defense around South East China. https://sovereignista.com/2026/05/04/new-indonesia-china-payment-system-chinese-on-de-dollarization-spree-in-southeast-asia/
What is clear is that our global status is dire, incredibly complex and I see few on the leadership side that are ready for the global economic fallout and trillion dollar costs falling on our heads. Somebody must stop shooting and that is the US, Israel and the EU with their weapons support to Ukraine. US and Israel must curb and withdraw their appetites for looting and pirating the world.
Looking at the LAC the few CELAC countries remaining are going to have to really take hands. Venezuela is now being pressurized more and more with hoped for IMF loans and forced into doing business in dollars. Africa, besides the part of Africa closely aligned with China, hopes that they will get colonial reparations instead of fixing their countries (besides the Sahel Alliance and they have their own problems with war). Femi Akomolafe talks about African leaders as the cheerleaders of their own subjugation.
I will call it. We are now in World War III.