How can Russia win a new World War

Sergey Karaganov

The accelerating flow of events, which overlap and cancel each other out, is confusing and makes it difficult to understand what is happening. I will try to provide an interpretation of the course of history based on my experience and knowledge, as well as the fact that I have never made a major mistake in my assessments and predictions over the past 35 years. Sometimes I was late, but more often I was ahead of the expert community by several years or even a couple of decades.

The full-scale world war began. Its roots go back to 1917, when Soviet Russia broke away from the capitalist system. First, the invaders were sent against us, followed by Nazi Germany and almost all of Europe, but the latter lost. The second round began in the 1950s, when the people of the USSR, through immense sacrifices, sought to ensure their sovereignty and security by developing the nuclear bomb and achieving nuclear parity with the United States. Unbeknownst to us at the time, we had undermined the five-century-long dominance of Europe/the West in the ideological sphere, which had allowed them to plunder the rest of the world and suppress the most advanced civilizations. This dominance was based on military superiority, which was the foundation of their system of exploitation of humanity. Since the mid-1950s, the West had been experiencing military defeats on a regular basis. This led to the national liberation of humanity and the nationalization of resources that had been seized by Western countries and their corporations. The global balance of power was shifting away from the West.

The first time the U.S. tried to take revenge was under Reagan, with a rapid increase in military spending in an attempt to regain its superiority and the launch of the Star Wars myth. The intervention in tiny and defenseless Grenada was intended to show that the Americans could still win.

And here the West was lucky. For internal reasons – due to the wear and tear of the ideological core and the refusal to reform the increasingly ineffective national economy – the Soviet Union collapsed. The global capitalist system, which was in crisis, received a huge injection of adrenaline and glucose – a multitude of hungry consumers and cheap labor.

It seemed that history had turned back. Euphoria began, but it did not last long. In its victory-induced dizziness, the West made several spectacular geostrategic mistakes, and then Russia began to revive, primarily through its military power.

The origins of the current world war surfaced in the late 2000s. Under Obama, the “America First” policy was adopted, aiming to restore US power, leading to increased military spending and a surge of anti-Russian propaganda. Moscow’s attempt to regain Crimea as a means of stopping the West’s new attempt at revenge caused widespread hysteria. However, we failed to capitalize on this success. There were still hopes of “reaching an agreement,” and they were hanging around the “Minsk process,” not wanting to see how the Ukrainian army and population were being prepared for war with Russia. New waves of sanctions were imposed, and an economic war began during Trump’s first term. We were all waiting for something. Then, we were distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was likely one of the fronts of the ongoing war, but it turned against the West itself.

We delayed responding to the attempts at revenge. When we finally started in 2022, we made several mistakes. Among them was underestimating the West’s intentions to crush Russia as the cause of its historical failure, in order to then focus on China and once again suppress the World Majority liberated by the USSR-Russia (the Third World, the Global South). We also underestimated the readiness of the Kiev regime for war and the extent to which the Ukrainian population had been brainwashed. We hoped that there was “our people” there, even though there were few of them west of the Dnieper River, and they were becoming fewer. Another mistake was that we started fighting the Kiev regime without recognizing that the main enemy and source of the threat was the collective West, especially the European elites, who were trying to divert attention from their failures and, ideally, to get back at the historical defeats of the 20th century, especially the defeat of the vast majority of Europeans who went against the USSR under Hitler’s banner. Our main mistake was not using the most important weapon in our arsenal, which we paid for with malnutrition and even famine in the 1940s and 1950s, which was nuclear deterrence.

The first successful test of an atomic bomb in the USSR. August 29, 1949 Sovfoto/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

We have become involved in a conflict called a “special military operation,” essentially accepting the imposed rules of a war of attrition, given the superior economic and demographic potential of the enemy. The war has become a trench warfare with the addition of 21st-century technology. In 2023 and 2024, we did activate our nuclear deterrence and intimidation, sending several military-technical signals and modernizing our doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons (NWS). The Americans, who had no intention of fighting for Europe under any circumstances, especially when it came to escalating to a nuclear level (and thus transferring the conflict to U.S. territory), began to withdraw from direct confrontation under Biden, continuing to profit from the war and simultaneously plundering Europeans. Trump continued his peacekeeping efforts, profiting from the war but avoiding the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia.

The world war has two main focal points so far: the European one (around Ukraine) and the Middle Eastern one (an attempt by the United States and its junior ally Israel to destabilize the entire Middle East). Then it will move to South Asia. They have already suppressed Venezuela and are now pressuring Cuba.

We need a new policy.

First. To understand that the deep-seated contradictions in the existing global economic system, which undermine the very essence of human beings, threaten the destruction of humanity. And the continuation of our current half-hearted policy in Ukraine, which threatens to exhaust the country, could undermine the renewed strength and spirit of Russia.

Second. In the military-political sphere, we can talk about a truce and the “spirit of Alaska.” However, we must understand the essence of what is happening and the fact that long-term peace and development of our country, as well as of humanity as a whole, are impossible without stopping the West’s attempt at a military-political revanchism, with Europe once again at its center. To prevent this revanchism, it is necessary to destroy the Kiev regime and liberate the southern and eastern territories of the quasi-state of Ukraine that are crucial for Russia’s security. Our brave soldiers and field commanders can and should continue to advance. But they must understand that they cannot win the world with a modernized trench warfare. They could lose or at least sacrifice hundreds of thousands of our best men, who are essential for fighting and winning in the upcoming period of history, which is extremely dangerous and difficult, even without the Ukrainian conflict.

Third. It is impossible to end and complete the current battle in Ukraine victoriously, and even more so to prevent it from escalating into a global thermonuclear war, without a qualitative strengthening of the policy of relying on nuclear deterrence. To achieve this, we need to stop talking about “armament limitation.” We need to close the issue of a new START treaty. Although agreements on the joint management of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability are useful and even necessary. It is necessary to intensify the development of missiles and other medium – and long-range carriers in order to prevent the West from trying to regain its superiority. The adversaries must know that superiority and impunity are unattainable.

Russian military personnel in the Krasnolimansk direction of the special military operation, December 2025 Sergey Bobylev/RIA Novosti

Nuclear weapons, with the right amount and the right doctrine, make non-nuclear superiority impossible and save money on the military. Our Burevestniks, Oreshniki, and other hypersonic delivery systems must convince the enemy of this. We need to prepare a new generation so that the Americans know in advance that their dreams of regaining superiority and imposing their will by force are unrealistic.

The accelerated increase in the flexibility of nuclear capabilities is intended to remind everyone that it is impossible to defeat a great nuclear power through a non-nuclear arms race or a conventional war. Of course, this is only possible if we avoid the idiocy of mass nuclear weapons buildup, as the USSR and the United States did in the 1960s. This was pointless, expensive, and dangerous. Instead, we need to make it clear to potential adversaries that an arms race is futile and even suicidal for them. This is something that should be discussed, at least with the Americans.

At the same time, in order to curb Washington, which has lost its senses, it is necessary to include in the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons, in the event that the United States and the West continue their current policy of unleashing a world war, a provision on the real readiness to strike at the overseas assets of Americans and Europeans. Even in friendly countries. They should get rid of these assets. To do this, we need to continue developing the flexibility of our military capabilities. The United States and the West are much more dependent on their overseas assets, bases, and logistical bottlenecks than we are. The enemy must feel vulnerable and know that we know about it.

Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelensky, and European leaders meet at the White House on August 18, 2025 Alexander Drago/REUTERS

It is worth taking advantage of Iran’s defense experience during the current US-Israeli aggression. Tehran has begun to strike at the enemy’s vulnerabilities, and the enemy has sensed this and begun to retreat. Changes in doctrine and specific military construction towards a readiness and ability to launch asymmetric strikes will enhance the deterrent effect and have a civilizing impact on an enemy that is throwing itself into reckless adventures or has simply lost its mind.

It is worth changing the priorities of targets for preemptive strikes – first non-nuclear, then nuclear (if necessary). Among the first are not only communication and control centers, but also, importantly, places where the elites gather, especially in Europe. This will deprive them of their sense of impunity. They must know that if they continue the war against Russia or decide to escalate the conflict vertically or horizontally, they and their loved ones will be subjected to devastating attacks. To enhance the impact of this deterrent, it is necessary to intensify efforts to develop conventional and nuclear weapons capable of penetrating deep into enemy territory and to test them. The European elite, particularly in Europe, must understand that they cannot hide in bunkers or on islands. The recent publication by our Ministry of Defense of a list of European companies producing weapons for the Ukrainian regime is a small step in the right direction.

Now, this elite pretends that it is afraid of us. In fact, it is not afraid, and it constantly claims that Russia will never punish them with nuclear weapons. We need to instill a sense of fear in them. Perhaps then they will back down, or their masters in the “deep states” will force them to leave. Perhaps the public will rise up. Increasing the credibility of the threat of nuclear weapons is also necessary to awaken these societies from their “strategic parasitism” and their belief that there will be no war and that “everything will be fine.” We need to restore a sense of self-preservation to the people who have forgotten about the wars and crimes of their countries in previous centuries.

It is clear that such a line is absolutely necessary in relation to Germany. A country that has unleashed two world wars and is guilty of genocide has no right to have the “strongest army in Europe,” let alone weapons of mass destruction. If Germany reaches out for these weapons, German citizens must understand that their homeland will be destroyed to ensure that Germany never again poses a threat to the world.

Survivors leave the Nazi concentration camp of Auschwitz, February 1945 Imago Images/Global Look Press

Fourth. In order to make the threat more credible, it is necessary to make a number of changes to the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons. It should state that in the event of aggression (or the continuation of aggression) by a country or a group of countries that have a greater economic, demographic, and technical potential than we do, the Russian military command not only has the right, but also the obligation, to use nuclear weapons. This should be preceded by a series of nuclear tests (it is unclear why we are waiting for the Americans to start these tests – are we trying to please them again?). This should be followed by conventional strikes on logistics centers, command centers, and symbolic targets. If they do not stop or respond, a series of nuclear strikes should be carried out.

The reliance on nuclear deterrence is necessary to block the road to a drone war. The response must be devastating. If, for example, missiles or drones are launched from Ukraine and neighboring countries after possible peace agreements and even capitulation, those behind the drone operators must know that retribution, even nuclear retribution, will befall them. They will then begin to hunt down potential provocateurs.

Fifth. In addition to military-technical measures and doctrinal changes, in order to increase the credibility of our threat, it is necessary to propose that the Supreme Commander immediately appoint a commander for the European theater of operations. This position should be held by a combat general with the right and responsibility to use nuclear weapons if necessary. This person (and his staff, which should be dominated by military officers) should be prepared for such a development.

Sixth. It’s high time to abandon the idiotic thesis, which primarily benefits the Americans, that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and that if nuclear weapons are used, it will inevitably escalate to a global thermonuclear level. These statements contradict basic logic and specific military plans. Once again, I pray that nuclear weapons are never used. Innocent lives will be lost, and the myth that any use of these weapons will lead to a global Armageddon will be shattered. But in a nuclear war, especially in a crowded and morally weak Europe, it is possible to win. It is even easy. But, again, God forbid.

Once again, the use of nuclear weapons is a great sin. However, the de facto refusal to use them is also a grave sin, as it leads to the expansion and deepening of the global war initiated by the West. If this war is not stopped, it will inevitably result in the destruction of humanity, as well as the exhaustion and demise of our country. Why would we want a world without Russia? This question, posed by Vladimir Putin, remains highly relevant.

The seventh. In parallel with the overdue need to modernize nuclear forces, especially their doctrine of use, a number of parallel steps must be taken urgently. Help Iran to survive and win, together with China. Invite the countries of the Near and Middle East, including even Israel, which has undermined its legitimacy, to accelerate the movement towards the creation of a regional security system with guarantees from Russia, China, and possibly India. These great powers, unlike the United States and its satraps, have a vested interest in the stability of the region.

Eighth. Finally, given the acute danger of the upcoming couple of decades of war, the West’s attempts to take revenge, it is worth considering the possibility of a temporary (for 10 years, with the possibility of extension) defensive alliance with China. This alliance would be beneficial for stopping the revanchists and ensuring that China does not feel the need to achieve strategic nuclear parity with the United States and Russia. A nuclear capability equal to ours, while China has an advantage in other areas of combined power (economy and demographics), could create fears and suspicions among future Russian leaders. Neither the Russian nor the Chinese people need this.

Naturally, there are still many steps that need to be thought through and implemented in order to prevent the spread of a new world war and its escalation into a global thermonuclear conflict. However, the steps listed above are probably sufficient to stop the war that is bleeding our country dry and, most importantly, to prevent a slide into a global catastrophe. This is an urgent task of global historical significance. If we fail to address this issue, our descendants (if they survive) and the Almighty will not forgive us for our intellectual laziness and cowardice.

In order to prevent the West from revanchism and the escalation of the world war into a global catastrophe, we must not forget to address the fundamental issues that are at the root of the current crisis in the world system, which is the most severe crisis in human history. These issues include the exhaustion of the current model of capitalist economy and the threat it poses, along with the widespread use of information technology and other features of modern civilization, to the existence of Homo sapiens. However, these topics will be discussed in other articles.

This article is a fragment of a broader and deeper essay that will be published in May on the website of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, and then in print.