Alastair Crooke : Tensions flicker into flame, lapping across the Middle East
The best Trump can do is to stop the conflicts agglutinating into one global war.
The silence surrounding the outcome to the Netanyahu meeting last week in the Oval Office speaks for itself. No American government official came to the airport to receive him, and no red carpet was laid out for him. The visit bombed. Israel is adrift – with its ‘Greater Israel’ strategy now bleeding, for lack both of troops and of coherence.
Former IDF Ombudsman Maj. Gen. Yitzak Brik predicts (Ma’ariv, 26 July), that the crisis engulfing the Israeli intercept inventory “is only the prelude to the catastrophe that is looming over us” –
“In the coming wars with Iran, the threat will increase tenfold to the point of a complete loss of the ability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. These missiles are expected to hit us: in population centers, strategic targets, production and economic infrastructure, science and technology institutes, educational institutions, hospitals and vital industries, and completely crush us”.
Trump – finally, it seems – understands that the war which he started in order to crush Iran has flipped – to destroying him. There is effectively no military solution available beyond stopping digging the hole that he is in still deeper.
Meanwhile, Iran is not allowing him to continue his tactical cycle of initiating kinetic war (ostensibly to pressure Iran), and then (on succeeding Mondays) to switch to talk of ‘imminent deals’ in order to manipulate oil markets and stock prices. Last Monday, a ‘short dump’ into the market knocked the price of Brent down a full 7.7%.
Iran, furthermore, intends to shape the tempo of the conflict, which (anyway) is set to escalate because of U.S. efforts to extend encircling pressures such that the U.S. ostensibly can coerce Iran into accepting a dictated ‘peace’.
But instead of adding pressure on Iran, Trump’s strategy is setting the region aflame, whilst inviting risk of uncontrolled escalation.
The latest developments – including Yemen’s declaration of ‘siege for siege’ on Saudi air and sea ports, and the strikes on two major Aramco refineries knocking out the Saudi oil pipeline to the Red Sea – have drawn Saudi Arabia into conflict both with Yemen, but also into conflict (jointly with CENTCOM) with Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU) militias in Iraq whom Saudi avers were responsible for the refinery destruction (although Hash’d al-Shaabi strongly denies it). These two episodes nonetheless underline the extent to which the ‘Trump war’ is de-stabilising an already fragile region.
Yesterday Saudi Arabia, together with the U.S., carried out major airstrikes on at least six Iraqi cities, killing at least 20 and wounding dozens of PMU members.
Why would Saudi Arabia attack the Hash’d and not Yemen? Well, likely because AnsarAllah would retaliate with missiles, destroying what remains of the Saudi oil infrastructure.
On learning of the American attacks on Hash’d positions, and in the spirit of an U.S. attack on ‘one member of the Axis being an attack on all’, Iran followed on by launching ballistic missiles on American bases in Jordan.
Two new fronts – the Hash’d al-Shaabi-Iraqi front and the Yemen-Saudi front – therefore have been added to the regional hotplate. Yet, there are other potential hotspots simmering in the background: In Lebanon, the Israeli Defence Minister boasts that –
“twenty-four Lebanese villages, hundreds of years old–were destroyed. All buildings, not house by house, but entire villages [were levelled]. Their destruction has been completed. You need to understand: 15,000 to 20,000 homes across all 24 villages have been destroyed – and today 70% of Gaza has been destroyed”.
More significantly, Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir has promised to ignite a settler war on Palestinians living in the West Bank in order to force a ‘voluntary’ exodus of Palestinians. Ben Gvir argues that the period ahead of elections in Israel represents the most propitious moment to trigger the crisis – which in his view might force the evacuation of entire Palestinian villages.
As if this chaos is not enough, on 25 July, U.S. missiles struck a Revolutionary Guards Navy headquarters in the Ziba Kenar area of the Caspian Sea in the Province of Gilan.
Commentator MK Bhadrakumar outlines that –
“The Caspian Sea makes a strategically vital supply route between Russia and Iran. Bandar Anzali is for Tehran what Odessa Port is for Kyiv where it receives western arms supplies. Therefore, Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea in Russia’s territorial waters on Saturday, the first such attack since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, is anything but a stray incident … Kyiv claimed responsibility for striking an Iranian vessel, signalling that one of Eurasia’s most stable security zones is now vulnerable to the direct spillover of the Ukraine conflict”.
Both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal report that the Ukrainian strike portends a merging of the two wars– the Ukrainian war with Russia and the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran. This suggests that the Ukrainian attack on the Iranian ship could well be a calibrated move by Washington, with Ukraine acting in conjunction with the U.S. bombing of Iran’s Gilan province.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week that Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea should be viewed as an attack against Iran itself, arguing that the incident highlighted the need to remove what it described as a threat posed by Kyiv. He accused Ukraine of expanding the reach of what he called its “terrorist attacks.”
So, what is going on? It is not clear whether the Ukrainian strike on the Iranian vessel (that killed an Iranian sailor) which Kiev falsely alleges held a cargo of weapons was simply a childish cry by Zelensky for attention to arouse Trump (‘Daddy’s’) interest – or something more consequential. Zelensky, on several occasions, has complained that the Iran war was sucking the air out from the West’s focus on ‘his’ war with Russia. Was this an attempt to realign Trump towards the Ukrainian war?
All these currents converged in Washington with Lindsay Graham’s lying-in-state, and at a moment when Laura Loomer– a fading MAGA influencer, yet one whom Trump likes, and to whom he readily listens – has performed a very public 180° pirouette, suddenly emerging as Ukraine’s greatest fan and promoter (perhaps in the stead of the late Lindsay Graham).
The internet is rife with speculation that her highly promoted ‘Pauline conversion’ may mark a significant U.S. political inflection point. It may, equally, nevertheless be an ephemeral moment which will quickly fade away. Loomer has zero influence amongst young MAGA, but still counts amongst the 65+ year-old Trump base that watches Fox News.
It is being presently argued however, that Loomer’s radical change in sympathies marks the beginning of a substantivepsyop designed to impress Americans that ‘interventionist America’ can be consistent with ‘America First’ – and therefore that it is ok to support military confrontation with Russia. The Loomer meme, as it were, is framed as a rebuke to Pat Buchanon’s MAGA following, who adhere his line (and the title of his book): A Republic – Not an Empire: Reclaiming America’s Destiny.
(Of course, any shift in U.S. public opinion favouring American military interventionism is welcomed in Israel).
Might this shift cause Trump to become more proactive on Ukraine? We do not know. Loomer has promised a full briefing for Trump on her trip to Ukraine and her meeting with Zelensky. Will Trump listen? Might he listen yet pay no attention? Who knows?
The point here is that the PR vibe onslaught to recast Ukraine as ‘winning’ – although empirically false – is gaining momentum among at least one slice of American opinion. Long-time Trump watcher and biographer, Michael Wolff,notes that –
“the Loomer 180° on Ukraine is “obviously already going on [i.e. getting traction]. Zelensky is now in town … He will get time with Trump. And Trump, yeah: How could [he] miss the fact that the advantage is profoundly with Ukraine at this moment”.
“In the broader sense, the foreign policy aspect of this Administration has been a complete disaster … The Iranian thing is a complete disaster. The alignment with Russia obviously a bad call … Zelensky [formerly] then portrayed as a loser is now a winner – everything else is now seen as ‘bad calls’ [by Trump]. Within this context, he [Trump] badly needs a success. And Ukraine is beginning to look like it could be his [success] – through piggybacking on Lindsay Graham’s funeral to shift towards a more successful strategy with Ukraine. Death can turn out to be a great PR coup. Bingo. Yes. Russia is in trouble”.
Of course, it is shocking to see how western élites can be manipulated through relentless PR. Yet Wolff’s comments are more than gossip column triviality. They reflect a mass psychosis taking hold. It is not rational, but rather is pushed by interests and monied cabals that have their own purposes.
Look at the pattern – Zelensky wants to present himself as a ‘winner’ to Europe and to Trump. Europe urges him to launch their missiles deep into Russia to force Russia to concede a ceasefire. Trump at the G7 expresses approval for the strikes into Russia. The first tooth on the gear wheel engages with drone strikes on Russian refineries. With Trump’s positive words at the G7, the cogwheel ratchets further and now has escalated to the level of attacks on Russian civil life (Wildberriesconsumer internet hub and killings at holiday camps) with longer range and bigger warhead missiles.
Ukraine sychronistically fires on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian. The IRGC threatens retaliation. The IRGC threatens the UK (and Cyprus) for its incrementally growing involvement in the war on Iran.
Europe treats Russia as bluffing and continues ratchetting missile strikes deep into Russia. Russia however cannot allow these assaults to continue and to escalate. Meanwhile, the Middle East quietly is catching fire. Iran will not succumb to Trump’s coercion; (nor will China acquiesce to U.S. sanction pressure).
There are simply no military solutions available to Trump. The best he can do is to stop the conflicts agglutinating into one global war.