The US is encircling Iran : The big picture in the region

By Amarynth

Let us take it step by step as the region has a complex history, and is becoming more complex. A few facts to start with:

We are at a stage of negotiation and the US is very good at that. They are better at breaking agreements of course, and brilliant at co-opting those that they pretend to work with. And it is a pretense. Only look at Russia and the sequence of events up to the ‘Spirit of Alaska’ that prevailed, until it crashed.

The US is encircling Iran, and using all methods to do it.  Religious differences play a large part.  .

There is no law left. There is no honor left. If I look at the planet, I find middle-countries bereft and without guidance as to which steps to take next, to work in their own best interests. If some kind of real consensus and solidarity among these countries do not visibly happen soon, my colleagues and I fear that Iran will lose this war during negotiations.

In reality the world needs to stop negotiating with the US, as they consider the fact that countries talk to them, as a sign of surrender by definition. The honorable and acceptable process of being in war, and then solving whatever is left by negotiation, should be questioned seriously in our current circumstances.  There is no need for Iran to negotiate with the US. The US is the aggressor and needs to leave. You don’t negotiate with an aggressor that wants to draw blood or oil from you and kill you if you don’t agree. It is similar for countries under the whip of the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine. Negotiation with empire signals weakness. It signals that you need to speak with them in order to continue the life of your country and your citizens. This amounts to asking for permission for being human.  Countries need to dispense with the absurd claim that Trump or the US, seeks peace. No, they seek oil and money and primacy. They are barbarians. One invites them into your country for ‘talks’ at your own peril.

The MoU is such an instrument of negotiation that initially signalled strength for Iran, but is now beginning to signals weakness and is being salami sliced from top to bottom. Let’s look at the region:

Bear in mind that we see clear signs of a religious war. This war is against the Sunnis. We will refer back to that statement. We’ve heard of security pacts but how viable is this at this time? I don’t see it. We hear that Saudi Arabia and Qatar is more reasonable now and that they are considering building a security alliance. I don’t see it. The key indicator here is to look at the money. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar (plus the other Gulf countries) trade with Israel. Even the so-called negotiators, Pakistan, trades with Israel. Oh they deny this, but go and take a look at the trade numbers on any reliable trade instrument that you can find. There is ample trade there, despite the denials.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar (The Money)

• Israeli arms flow to Gulf states: a masterclass in hypocrisy wrapped in multimillion-dollar defense contracts. Documents and photographs reportedly show Israeli-made missile counter-measures installed on aircraft used by the Qatari royal family. Israeli-linked components were supplied for Qatari and Saudi F-15 jet fighters through US aircraft firm Boeing.
• For years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has flip-flopped over Qatar, calling it “a complicated country” when his aides were probed over business deals with Doha, but backing legislation to brand it a state sponsor of terrorism and bombing its capital – but never does anything. It only barks.
• Qatar avoids official ties with Israel and presents itself as a regional mediator, while using Israeli arms and trading.
• Saudi Arabia has delayed normalizing relations with Israel and speaks of Arab and Palestinian solidarity, but never does anything.
• Three aircraft in the Qatari royal fleet — two Boeing 747s and an Airbus A340-500 — were reportedly fitted with Elbit C-MUSIC countermeasures between 2020 and 2022
• It protects aircraft from heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles by blinding their seekers with an infrared beam
• Boeing reportedly awarded Israeli companies subcontracts worth $150 million to $250 million for Qatari F-15QA fighter jets
• The supplies reportedly included JHMCS combat helmets, AN/AVS-9 night-vision goggles, aircraft components, avionics and ventilation systems
• Saudi Arabia also appears to be an indirect customer for its F-15SA, with 462 JHMCS helmets and 462 AN/AVS-9 goggles reportedly delivered
• The Saudi helmet sales alone are estimated at roughly $100 million, while Qatar separately purchased 160 helmets in a $35 million deal
• The Iran war exposed that ‘neutral’ Gulf monarchies rely on the US-Israeli arms trade.
• That is against a background of neither Saudi Arabia or Qatar expressing any solidarity with Iran in formal statements.

Iran is Shia.  Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Sunni.  This war is against the Shiites.

Is US severing Iraq & Lebanon from Iran and pitting Gulf states against it?

A sudden coup in Iraq suggests the US is trying to rapidly reformat the Middle East after its recent humiliating defeat in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq

• Iraqi security forces arrested at least 47 politicians and senior officials early on June 28 under the guise of an anti-corruption drive. Some of those figures are linked to Shia parties close to Iran.
• Elite Counter Terrorism Services raided homes in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone in overnight operations. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is reportedly carrying out a purge of pro-Iran officials
• Ali al-Zaidi has been prime minister of Iraq since May 14. The Sunday purge followed the visit of Tom Barrack, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, to Iraq and his meeting with al-Zaidi on June 16.
• Their joint statement pledged “a strong and mutually beneficial US-Iraq partnership,” with a special focus on “the complete disarmament and disbandment of all armed groups and formations” on Iraqi territory — a clear reference to Iraqi Shia militias, part of the Axis of Resistance allied with Iran
• The purge coincided with the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who traveled to Iraq on June 28 to meet Iraqi President Nizar Al-Amidi and the prime minister, and to demonstrate the Islamic Republic’s commitment to supporting its neighbor
• Daniel McAdams Executive Director of Ron Paul Institute states that the CIA is carrying out a coup in Iraq and opening a new front – Encircling Iran.  

Lebanon

•  On June 26, Israel struck a deal with the Lebanese government that does not require the Israeli military to leave occupied southern Lebanon or prevent the IDF from striking further (https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/71432) if it deems necessary.  This violates the signed MoU in too many ways to count.
•  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear that the Israeli-Lebanese deal is largely aimed against Hezbollah, another key Iranian ally. According to Rubio, the deal “establishes a clear and structured process to… disarm [Hezbollah] and dismantle its terrorist infrastructure”
• Hezbollah is being attacked now to weaken Iran and the Israeli attacks have not ceased for one moment.

Back to the Gulf states

• Prior to that, on June 25, Rubio chaired a ministerial meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that de facto rejected key provisions of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 17. The statement claimed that “lasting regional peace and security” requires addressing “the full spectrum of Iran’s threats (https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/71404), including its ballistic missiles, drones, and support for proxies”
• Donald Trump’s memorandum of understanding tried to lull Iran into believing the US would no longer play dirty. However, it didn’t take long for Trump to resume issuing threats — just four days after the MoU was signed — followed by US missile strikes
• The US now appears to be trying to encircle and isolate Iran ahead of a new phase of strikes. The Tehran Times has recently highlighted a ramp-up in US aerial supply operations in West Asia, suggesting preparations for a possible ground campaign

Syria

Syria is massacring Shia, and Alawites.  Just today a complete Shia town was told to pack up their goods and leave.  This is not a one-off event, but happens regularly.  Syria was asked (by Trump) to help fight against Hezbollah.  So far, they have declined.  Yet, with the event in Iraq that is now called a Coup, this just happened.  In the diplomatic field one does not go into hysteria because there is a meeting.  Yet, this meeting comes in the middle of a continuing Coup in Iraq.   A coup that so far targets the Shia, and Syria targets Shia as well.  Can you see the glimmers of religious war beginning to appear.

Yemen

News is just out that the Saudi Arabia forces that has been fighting against Yemen for years, are considering doing it again.  Yemen in any event warns that any Israeli presence in Somalia’s waters is a a ‘legitimate target’

Gaza and the West Bank

One word!  Carnage!  A Shame on all the world that did not act and still is not acting.

We hear this, which is good news.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, is personally supervising the implementation of the MoU, and routinely makes critical comments to the President and negotiating team

According to a well-informed source, his patience is extensive but ‘not unlimited’, stating that he would make sure the continuation of the diplomatic process is in line with Iran’s interests.

The same source said the Supreme Leader is exercising pressure through a variety of different channels to either ensure full implementation of the MoU, or prepare for a quick return to war.

When the few run the world, the many should rise.