BRICS in South Africa

I’ve written about South Arica sitting on two chairs, and this being a real threat to BRICS, specifically for the upcoming BRICS meetings and summits. “People need to be hopeful. Discouraged communities, polarized communities, and weak governance will not get you there but will get your country into failed state position. It is better if you cannot stand the heat, to express your adherence to one pole or another and seek shelter.”

Let’s check the headlines:

South Africa quickly pulled together a delegation of African countries to go and speak peace with Russia and Ukraine, they said. So far not much is visible in this car on the peace train. It is clear that South Africa is directly in the hegemon’s crosshairs and so far I do not see any internal strength to withstand an all-out attack.

From the stark insults to Mr.Putin through sheer fumbling of the ball and unbelievable diplomatic faux pas, they’re trying.

PRETORIA, May 30. /TASS/. South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation has guaranteed diplomatic immunity to participants in the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting to be held in Cape Town on June 1-2 and the BRICS summit to be held in Johannesburg from August 22-24, according to a document published on the South African government website.

“On 29 May 2023, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation issued a notice in the government gazette on Diplomatic Immunities and Privileges for the upcoming BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting in Cape Town and BRICS Summit to be held in Johannesburg in August. This is a standard conferment of immunities that we do for all international conferences and summits held in South Africa, irrespective of the level of participation. The immunities are for the conference and not for specific individuals,” the document said.

The South African authorities justified their decision by the provisions of the 1946 Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations and the 1947 Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the Specialized Agencies, adopted by a resolution of the UN General Assembly.

But, nothing has changed.  This is a normal and routine procedure for the host to declare immunity to visiting dignitaries.

South Africa has adopted what it says is a non-aligned stance toward the war in Ukraine, and it has abstained from several United Nations votes condemning Russia’s actions.  Its neutrality was called into question this month when US Ambassador Reuben Brigety accused Pretoria of supplying weapons to Russia on a Russian cargo ship, the Lady R.  This led to a whole lot of hilarity, as the Defence and Military Veterans Minister Thandi Modise declared:  “I will reiterate what I said: We put fokol on that ship.”   (Fokol being local slang for Fuck All, i.e., Nothing).  Yet, the story does not want to die because the hegemon does not want it to die.

So, the hegemon instructs:

The US has called on South Africa to use its influence to persuade Russia to return to compliance with the New START Treaty between America and Russia which limits the nuclear missile stockpiles of the two countries and allows them to monitor each other’s nuclear facilities.  “Russia needs to hear from countries like South Africa that it must return to compliance with the New START Treaty and contribute to global stability,” Mallory Stewart, the US assistant secretary of state for arms control and verification, said in remarks prepared for delivery at the South African Institute of International Affairs in Cape Town recently.

As with the Chinese refusal to meet with the US on the level of heads of defense, Russia is of course not talking to the US.  And this drives them crazy and South Africa is now an easy mark and unending pressure can be piled on them.

This is the latest, a clear and present warning from the South African Reserve Bank about sanctions:

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has warned of dire consequences should the country face censure due to its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At worst, secondary or indirect sanctions could be imposed on the country and lead to a sudden halt to capital inflows and increased outflows, the bank said in its latest financial stability review published on Monday.

It cautioned that South Africa’s financial system would be unable to function if its ability to make international payments in dollars was impeded.

More than 90% of South Africa’s international payments are processed through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication system, Herco Steyn, the report’s lead author, told reporters.

“Should South Africa be banned from SWIFT due to secondary sanctions, these payments will not be possible,” he said.

And following is a unique example of coercion with a greatly confused political and unethical messaging from one of the major papers:

South Africa’s foreign policy should align with the Constitution and the values that were embedded in it when, after a two-year process of consultation, it was signed into law by Nelson Mandela at the dawn of our democracy. Our foreign policy should be an extension of the values and principles that the government is legally bound to follow at home: pro-poor, pro-peace, pro-human rights, pro-democracy.

Regardless of its reading of the historical context of geopolitics, the provocations by Nato and the US, South Africa should unambiguously stand on the side of the Ukrainian people, as well as the mass of ordinary Russian people, who have been press-ganged into the war and are being coerced or misled to slaughter on its frontlines. That would have been the position of the original Russian communists, like Lenin and Trotsky, who some in our government claim they still draw inspiration from.

The message is clear. Slava Ukraïni! and The Bad Russians who misled their ordinary citizens into war.

Again, we see that a foreign policy of non-alignment only works when based on a dispassionate and objective reading of global geopolitics, and the strength to stand firm in your convictions.  (Or you’ll receive ‘fokol’ from your efforts besides unbelievable coercion).  Dmitry Peskov said: “Russia will take part in this summit (BRICS) at a proper level.”  Peskov promised to give “all the details” later. ”  This simply means that Russia is still assessing the issues and will take decisions after Mr.Lavrov’s visit to the BRICS meeting for Foreign Ministers.  Peskov said: “Russia attributes great importance to the development of this integration format.”

We’ve seen Brazil gain some strength with Dilma Rousseff as head of the New Development Bank (BRICS Bank) but I sure will be glad when Russia takes over the chair for the next year.  As it is, Brazil could not take up the presidency for 2024 as it finds organizing G20 and BRICS Summits in the same year logistically challenging and made its choice perfectly clear.

Russia, which was scheduled to host the Summit in 2025, has stepped in as per alphabetical order of BRICS and has announced to host the Summit in 2024. The summit will be held in the Russian city of Kazan, and we will have new BRICS members which would be excellent.  Some progress will be made in the discussions for a Common BRICS currency, even if it is the Chinese Yuan in the interim.  What is to lose?   Excepting for South Africa, as they clearly are still in a dollar-denominated trade environment judging from the warning from their reserve bank.