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manderson
ParticipantChina is also interested in Equatorial Guinea as a possible site for an Atlantic naval base. China is a large trade partner for both Equatorial Guinea and Gabon (its southern neighbor on the coast). Gabon and Equatorial Guinea both have long serving dictators that were mostly western aligned most of their careers. Gabon’s dictator had more recently been working closely with China and had a partnership in place. He was recently disposed in a coup that was less populist than the other coups in the Sahel. So both of these countries are being courted by China and now Russia; and both countries have leaders that could make the switch (i.e. have enough independence and control). https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/
ParticipantEarlier this year Ethiopia signed a MOU with Somaliland to develop a naval and possibly commercial port on leased land at the Berbera Port on the Gulf of Aden. This would not only give Ethiopia sea access but also increase its geopolitical standing as a naval power on the Gulf of Aden (opposite Yemen). https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia-somaliland/stakes-ethiopia-somaliland-deal
Somaliland, however, is not recognized by any countries yet even though it broke away from Somalia in 1991 (due to economic tensions – Somaliland is far more stable). At the same time (1993), Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia which made Ethiopia a landlocked country (the most populous one in the world). The Ethiopian PM has made regaining access to the Gulf of Aden his priority. The way he handles politics strikes me as similar to Erdogan of Turkey. Here is an Ethiopian analysis of the issue: https://ethiopianinstitute.org/2023/10/geopolitical-imperatives-of-ethiopias-quest-for-red-sea-access-a-historical-and-strategic-analysis/
Now Somalia is threatening to expel Ethiopian troops from its own territory that are there on peace keeping missions as part of the African Union. Given the key role Ethiopia has in fighting terrorism in Somalia itself, this may further destabilize Somalia, but it is understandable given their stance on Somaliland. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-expel-ethiopian-troops-unless-somaliland-port-deal-scrapped-official-2024-06-03/
Somaliland and Ethiopia do seem like natural partners since they are both commercially and agriculturally focused. As part of the port deal, Ethiopia will officially recognize Somaliland.
ParticipantSouth Africa, like India, saw major set backs in recent elections for their ruling party the ANC. Some parties to the left of ANC gained significant ground. The ANC is in discussions to form a coalition government with the right which was only last seen under Mandela. It is strange that they do not ally with parties to their left. They have two weeks to try to bridge this gap.
Here is a great article on the subject.
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