Ah, yes I wasn’t posting numbers in response to your post, just the tweet. As you said, it was a different (and imo wrong) take.

There’s a scene I recall from GameOfThrones that I always think about, that has been repurposed a few times in blogs by people trying to wrap their head around empire’s ways- a failure of imagination. Namely, that the oppressed just cannot imagine the depths of depravity the empire will go, the chaos it will sow, the damage it will seek just to spite others, because we still retain our humanity and connection to each other. And seemingly that can be to humanity’s detriment because we keep losing. And for sure, I’d bet on the strategy being as you and others like berletic have said- empire seeks sowing chaos as its own end.

But related to that was an excellent post by Warwick Powell – the west sees conflict as inevitable and loves the thucydides trap as the example, but going by Chinese governing thought, (Confucius, Daoism, Legalism, and now evolving Marxist), that story serves as a parable about how good governance is about avoiding chaos and conflict.

https://warwickpowell.substack.com/p/reclaiming-thucydides-in-the-name

It is still a difficult thing for western thought to get their minds around, that things do NOT have to end in chaos and conflict. Again, assuming we are allowed to get there. Furthering this, there are two long interviews with Josef Mahoney (westerner now teaching at East Normal University in China) that I thought were excellent in many points-

https://resistanceisfertilepodcast.substack.com/p/understanding-marxism-with-chinese

in both he goes into the idea how even western marxism and thought may not be able to reconcile conflict beyond binary, win/lose, possibly even because it is embedded into the basis of indo-european languages, whereas Mao and Chinese Marxism reaches directly back to Chinese thought as a unity of opposites- yin yang, balance- On Contradiction being Mao’s classic treatise on this.

I am wary of prognosticators who try and game everything out for China, especially if they come at it from a western lens (ie predictive history/jiang really speaks from and for a western audience). And Mahoney above himself is a bit caught in a western Marxist, rather chauvinst take -he prefaces all Iran statements with an admonishment “I’m against theocracy”- it’s why I thought Joti Brar’s statement was so corrective- with purging of leftist/marxists in the region over the years, Shia is now the region’s liberation theology- poohpoohing it is such a pearl clutching bs move. The KMT/CPC united front was necessary, and that is what this is- alliance against the great evil.

Benji/resistance is fertile also did a podcast with Rami Yahya where the latter mentioned he now saw the Palestinian struggle, the west asia/middle eastern struggle as their current century of humiliation akin to what China suffered. And that the hope and belief is that now, we are nearing the end. And Arnaud Bertrand’s tweet about China’s overcoming their helium dependency requires so much input, collective work from the nation and its people, to truly build that level of resilience, that level of sovereignty, most nations simply do not have it. But the Iran war is showing that if you DO get there, China, and Russia, are there to help. Assuming we all do get there.

At this point, I’m all for what Indi.ca says about taking the resistance at their word and actions, and even their predictions, and their predictions have been pretty accurate- 2027 the end of israel inshallah. Oct 7 was the flood/Stalingrad, now Iran is completing the flood. Victory be with them for the sake of humanity.

yea, that take is incorrect already by step 1- China did not depend on venezuela oil- it was the other way around- Venezuela got a lifeline from China. Less than 1.5% of of China’s oil imports came from Venezuela. Gulf oil is also not the dealbreaker- Iran only produces 2.5mil, 90% bought by China, but also they do not depend on Iran for oil- non-opec countries like Kazakhstan, Russia and Malaysia (tho they get much of their oil from parts of the gulf and are more refiners iirc) can continue to supply and none of those are at full capacity.

Further, and I can’t remember the other link I had that broke it all down- China is 84% energy self sufficient. Energy from oil imports account for a portion of the remaining 16%, and the portion of that from areas at risk are a portion of that. China adds energy 2x the size of Germany’s entire power grid- EVERY YEAR, mainly from renewables, but also indigenous coal, and it’s own oil pumps in western china.

It may hurt, but it will not cripple China, nor will it give the US the leverage some think it may.

That aside- in reference to your original typewriter post, it certainly makes some sense, tho I doubt anyone in Trump’s circle is smart enough to do it, maybe some of the background oligarchs. But certainly Russia and China may have such a plan- if nothing else, Iran may remove Israel as the political quagmire for Russia without the RF having to do a thing. Then again, incompetence/stupidity/zioeschatology > planning certainly is also possible.

I doubt he will really change his opinion beyond milquetoast -I watched Sal at the beginning of the tariff war, thinking he’d be like Kevin at ICB. Quickly stopped when realizing he’s an idiot “centrist” like shitlib pearl clutchers or maga anti-zio performance artists- he kept condemning the houthis because they fired on civilian ships violating the blockade (again, businesses don’t care about people, and he clearly doesn’t understand or care to investigate capitalist logic or understand any part of asymmetric warfare). See his post of “why are they letting Chinese BYD go through?” and him getting roasted on his whataboutism and ignorance in the comments.

He may have some decent info on the logistics of the sea, but he can’t keep his western brainworm from infecting his takes. If he can’t literally say outright in the above video that the US violated everything about UNCLOS, war, geneva conventions, then he has jack shit worth listening to. His only use is as a technical filter for admittedly info starved folks, but he’s a moronic filter at that. He himself stated that you can collate all the info he provides from publicly available, real time data- the links are all openly available. Go in knowing what you are getting- it’s the same when listening to the lineup of white guy former cia/military western analysts, that are so popular in the western speaking world on alt media- they can’t help but still cling to their self images of western white supremacy they’ve been indoctrinated with.

how reliable are these sources on the GAZAP request? And Bagram drone source and bombing rationale? Not that it can’t be true, but I’m loathe to trust AI/clip reels at all that just do voice overs. If the latter is real, would explain maybe a little bit of Pakistan v Afghanistan over the past year, tho could be ongoing Khan/parliament-military control rewrite bs distraction as well.