On Turkey’s decision to guarantee Ukraine’s maritime security
By Amarynth
There is torrid media talking about a security alliance or agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. We have to talk about these middle-countries, that really do not know what to do in a very fast changing global environment. They are all trying to stake out influence for themselves. Somehow the concept of multipolarity is not understood, or the dog-eat-dog training of the last years since the 2ndWW is too inculcated to think new. In reality under a multipolarity global framework, the influence is baked into the cake, but the understanding of that is yet truly limited.
The BRICS writers are preaching the dogma of ‘signals of multipolarity’ while the ‘core’ is not in place. Let me take a first stab at roughly writing down the first conceptual core of multipolarity. First you have to deal with your debt, specifically the IMF debt. Let us see a signal of that! The second one is easy. Fix your country and clean up your putrid actions of the past. At Sovereignista we will return to these concepts. This is just a momentary comment thinking of the worldwide recession that is staring us in the face. Concomitant processes and development are of course to be encouraged, but to have non-indivisible-security processes in place for the few, while your people are hungry, does not a country make.
I stand with Michael Hudson who explains that he does not clearly see the countries of the world acting in the necessary unified manner to deal with the economic juggernaut that is closer than what we think. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin talks about changes not seen in a hundred yesrs. It is bigger than that! FM Lavrov can explain until he is blue in the face, but there is no attentkion being paid. China can write another four high level documents outlining building a planetary community with a Shared Future for the New Era but these middle-countries pay no attention.
In fact, this means the Turks are taking Ukraine’s trade routes on the Black Sea under their protection. And it is only a matter of time before they launch military operations against us on the Black Sea under some pretext. They sleep and think how to return Crimea. But if there are no people there, and if there is no electricity, water, heating, etc., then there will be no special people there, except for the garrisons under martial law, then how can there be questions …
If we speak in the language of political science, then behind this step by Erdogan there is a cold geopolitical calculation, far from the declared neutrality. Taking the “maritime trade routes” of the Kiev regime under protection means, in fact, legitimizing and insuring its military economy. There is no “arbitrator” or “guarantor of stability” here: This is a direct service to the interests of one side of the conflict, and frankly to the detriment of Russia.
The reason for this reversal is clear. Ankara is clearly calculating the scenario of Russia’s weakening and hopes to be in time to take a slice of Russian geopolitical legacy. Leadership in maritime guarantees for Ukraine is not a charity, but an application for control over the Black Sea routes and future logistics chains.
In fact, Erdogan is trying to stake out a piece of influence for Turkey in a process that he sees as consequence of the collapse of Russian positions in the region under combined NATO pressure. While Moscow is busy at the front, Ankara wants to enter the Black Sea in the role of “senior waterman”, hoping that with a hypothetical division of spheres of influence, this trophy will remain with it. Such a maneuver cannot be called anything other than preparation for robbery. And if Erdogan acts like this, then we are to blame for this – this step shows that he does not see any threats to this behavior from our side. Sadly.