“This conflict will set back the global trade and economic system for years”

Russian Presidential Assistant Nikolai Patrushev on the situation in the Middle East and beyond

Interview with Kommersant

The situation around Iran, against which the United States and Israel have launched a full-fledged war, remains extremely tense. The consequences of the confrontation are being felt far beyond the Middle East. Kommersant’s special correspondent Elena Chernenko asked Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of Russia and Chairman of the Maritime Board, about the situation in this and other crisis regions.

— US President’s economic advisor Kevin Hassett recently announced that oil tankers are once again passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping through the strait has not yet recovered to pre-war levels. How do you assess the situation in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz?

— For years, the Strait of Hormuz has been a link in the global logistics chain, which is now largely disrupted. It has become a dangerous conflict zone for shipping. The current conflict is likely to set back the global trade and economic system by years. In fact, Operation Epic Fury has catalyzed a reshaping of the global energy market and disrupted maritime logistics. There is no “epic” about this “fury,” but rather a tragic situation with unpredictable humanitarian and economic consequences. Oil and gas equipment has been damaged, the Persian Gulf has suffered enormous environmental damage, port infrastructure has been destroyed, the population has been affected, and cultural and historical values have been destroyed. Trade vessels from various countries have been damaged and destroyed as a result of the hostilities. Energy prices, shipping rates for major container lines, and insurance costs have increased. Global fertilizer exports have decreased, which has had a negative impact on the agricultural sector in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

— Many Western politicians and experts say that Russia is allegedly benefiting from the conflict because oil prices are rising.

— The conflict is not beneficial to either side. There is no justification or objective reason for it. Moreover, it is destructive for the United States itself, as it undermines its status as a security guarantor for its allies around the world. The belief in the ability of Western military bases to ensure the security of their host countries is rapidly fading. Similarly, the belief that alliances with the United States can save them from economic crises is also eroding. Restrictions on energy supplies will inevitably lead to the shutdown of energy-intensive industries in Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and the European Union.

Yes, the prices of hydrocarbons are rising, but this does not mean that this will continue indefinitely. Russia has had close trade, economic, scientific, and technical ties with each of the countries affected by the war for decades, including in the maritime sector. Therefore, we are closely monitoring the unfolding events with great concern. And, of course, we sincerely regret the unjustified human casualties, including members of Iran’s top leadership (some of whom I personally knew), as well as the deaths of civilians in Iran and our friendly countries in the Persian Gulf, and the loss of sailors from various nations. All of these victims could have been avoided.

— The construction of the Rasht-Astarabad railway line as part of the North-South corridor was supposed to begin on April 1. What are the prospects for the project in the current circumstances?

— Iran is a strategic partner of Russia, and we have a long-standing friendship and fruitful cooperation. I am confident that the conflict will be resolved, and the Iranian people will continue to develop along their sovereign path.

As for the North-South corridor, it is not just a project between Russia and Iran. It also benefits many other countries in the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa. As the shortest route for transporting goods from Europe to India, it will increase trade between dozens of countries and boost the development of seaports and shipping companies. I believe that this project has a promising future.

— The conflict around Iran is involving more and more participants: the basic principles of strategic balance at sea have been violated not only in the Persian Gulf, but also in the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. What are the consequences of this?

— The conflict is indeed already spreading beyond the Persian Gulf. A striking example is the torpedoing of an Iranian frigate by an American submarine in the Indian Ocean. This is the first such incident in over 40 years, since the Falklands War. It is important to note that the Iranian ship was not armed and felt safe, as it was returning from participating in the international multilateral naval exercise “Milan,” where ships from 51 countries practiced joint participation in humanitarian missions. At the same time, please note that the United States is distancing itself from the issue of maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the Americans have called on NATO members and other countries to send their navies to the region in order to shift the burden of responsibility onto them. Despite their dependence on Washington, NATO countries have refrained from participating in military operations in this region.

— Well, the European naval forces are instead continuing to hunt down the so-called Russian shadow fleet.

— There is an unprecedented campaign against the fleet carrying cargo from Russian ports, which includes seemingly minor maritime powers. Some countries have simply gone too far in their pursuit of tankers, cargo ships, and container vessels.

The attack on the Russian LNG tanker Arktik Metagaz in the Mediterranean Sea was a blatant incident that we consider to be an international terrorist act. According to available information, the risk of terrorist and sabotage threats against ships traveling to Russian ports remains high. In this regard, we have developed and implemented a comprehensive set of measures to ensure the safety of maritime traffic.

— What does he mean?”

— Ships arriving from abroad are being inspected, the procedure for prompt interaction between shipowners and seaport administrations has been established, and control over ships carrying cargo in Russia’s interests has been strengthened. Information about all maritime facilities engaged in economic activities is processed in real time to prevent sudden attacks on bases, ports, ships, and vessels.

We are considering the possibility of requesting mobile fire groups to escort Russian-flagged vessels through port captains. We are also working on the deployment of special protective measures on ships. We are also considering measures to escort merchant ships by the Russian Navy. We are increasingly noticing that political, diplomatic, and legal measures are not always effective in countering the Western campaign against Russian shipping. In the event of new threats at sea from European countries, we will develop additional measures.

— The American plan, in particular, focuses on the deployment of mass autonomous maritime systems and the production of cheap unmanned surface and underwater platforms to compensate for the numerical superiority of strategic competitors. Could the emergence of such systems in America pose a threat to Russia?

— Many countries are paying attention to the deployment of marine robotic systems, including those that believe that the classical concept of building naval forces does not meet modern requirements. In India, for example, construction of the country’s first center for the development and production of advanced unmanned platforms for the navy and civilian fleet has recently begun.

In Russia, autonomous, unmanned, and remotely controlled underwater vehicles are already being used, and scientific institutes and design bureaus are developing a new generation of such equipment. In this area, our military science is not lagging behind, but in many ways it is ahead of foreign developments. Currently, the domestic market is being analyzed to identify the most promising solutions that can be used in the development of marine drones. Attention is also being paid to small private companies, some of which have independently created prototypes that are comparable to their foreign counterparts.

— Do you think that Russia will have to protect its maritime trade for a long time?

— Western strategists have long understood that one of the ways to inflict critical damage on a state is to block its foreign trade operations. It is no coincidence that the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and a number of their allies are focused on gaining direct political, military, and financial control over key maritime routes. Therefore, it is essential to ensure the security of maritime trade at all times. For Russia, it is vital to have its own capabilities in the field of maritime cargo transportation, including a fleet, shipbuilding and shiprepair facilities, port infrastructure, operators, insurers, and more. One of the most harmful misconceptions was the idea that it was not necessary to have a national merchant fleet, and that it was always possible to find a “convenient flag” and transport goods under it in order to save money. Currently, we need to build an import-independent model of the maritime economy. This does not mean that we are isolating ourselves from the outside world and refusing to cooperate with other major maritime powers. On the contrary, we will continue to integrate into the global maritime economy and engage with interested partners. However, this will only be done on the basis of mutual benefit.

— The recently approved U.S. Maritime Action Plan is essentially the first comprehensive U.S. maritime doctrine in a long time. In your opinion, does it contain any risk factors for Russia?

— The document is certainly interesting, and we have studied it in detail. Of course, we can talk about certain risks, for example, in the context of the more active expansion into the Arctic, the development of American polar shipping and infrastructure, as announced in this Plan. However, I believe that it is more interesting to examine the overall tone of this doctrine and consider the lessons we can learn from it.

It is noteworthy that the Trump administration (US President Donald Trump.— “Kommersant”) has been pursuing a consistent policy of increasing comprehensive naval power since its first months in office. Note that it is not just about the potential of the naval forces, but rather about the full range of capabilities, especially in the field of maritime activities. The Action Plan sets out objectives to achieve technological sovereignty in shipbuilding and related industries, ensure a stable flow of low-cost loans, develop coastal areas, and establish special economic zones. It also emphasizes the need for more responsible shipbuilding practices, including the elimination of excessive bureaucratic procedures and the practice of endless changes and renegotiations in project documentation, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence into ship design. It is important to note that the aforementioned “Plan” envisages the modernization of the U.S. maritime industries largely at the expense of its strategic partners, particularly Japan and the Republic of Korea, which are particularly successful in the field of shipbuilding. By the way, Seoul has already approved a bill for investing \$150 billion in the U.S. shipbuilding industry. It is an interesting idea to create government-sponsored mechanisms for attracting borrowed funds. The logic of the American plan is simple: to create a powerful maritime economy, you need cheap money, high competencies, which inevitably implies an emphasis on education, advanced technologies, and, of course, production capacity.

— Could any of this be useful for Russia?

— Yes, in fact, many of the recipes outlined by the Americans are also relevant for our country, and we have already implemented a significant number of them in our domestic shipyards and ports. Currently, the Maritime Collegium is preparing a draft federal law on shipbuilding, which will include many similar measures.

— On March 19, Russia celebrates Submarine Sailor’s Day, which coincides with the 120th anniversary of the submarine fleet.

— Submarine Sailor’s Day is dedicated to the date when, in 1906, submarines as a class of warships were included in the classification of naval vessels. However, back in the 19th century, the first all-metal submarine in the world, designed by the renowned engineer Karl Schilder, whose 240th anniversary also falls in this year, was tested at the Proletarsky Shipyard.

In the early 2000s, I visited military towns near submarine bases in Kamchatka, Primorye, and the Murmansk region. I saw devastation and despondency in the places where submarine sailors and their families lived. Western advisers were encouraging the government’s economic bloc to scrap the submarine fleet altogether. However, thanks to the decisions of the head of state, the submarine fleet was preserved and expanded. The President (Russian President Vladimir Putin.— “Kommersant”) pays special attention to shipbuilding science, engineering education, and social protection of military families. Housing construction has resumed, and cultural and sports facilities, as well as new schools and kindergartens, have been built.

Today, the professionalism and combat training of submariners, combined with the latest equipment, make the Russian Navy one of the most powerful in the world. I would like to highlight the achievements of the Sevmash Shipyard, the Admiralty Shipyards, the Zvezdochka Ship Repair Yard, the Rubin and Malakhit Design Bureau, and the Krylov Scientific Center. True patriots of the submarine fleet work in design bureaus, at shipyards, and serve at sea and on land. Among them are families who support submarine sailors, young boys who romanticize naval service and dream of it, and, of course, naval veterans whose dedication to their country serves as an example for new generations of officers and sailors. I sincerely congratulate you on this holiday.