Overestimation

Underestimating your opponent is foolish. Overestimating yourself is even more foolish.

The West and the Global South regularly underestimate each other and overestimate themselves. This is not helpful and can even be dangerous. It increases the likelihood of World War III. I hope this essay will shake people awake and spur them to action.

When I read the many articles that are pro-Western, almost all of the writers think that the West is all-powerful and capable of defeating the Global South. But conversely, I also read many articles that are anti-Western, whose writers think that the Global South is now capable of defeating the West. The writers believe that their leaders are the smartest and that the leaders of the opposition are the dumbest. When I try to look at it objectively, from my Western background but pro-Global South, I see mainly hope for one’s own gain and contempt for the opponent.

According to many writers, President Trump and his administration are acting foolishly with their tariffs, inconsistent policies, and strange statements. According to many writers, President Putin is acting foolishly with his reluctance to intervene more forcefully. However, both presidents are playing a game of chess that is only in the middle game. The writers, as spectators of the chess game, can no longer build on familiar openings, because the board with the chess pieces has never looked like this before. It is not about supporting your favorite, but about really trying to understand the chess game and report on it objectively.

If you simply think President Trump is acting foolishly, you may be missing his game strategy and run the risk of being disappointed if he ends up with advantages in the endgame. If you think President Putin should take more risks and perhaps sacrifice a chess piece, that is probably at odds with his strategy. It is good to discover and describe your opponent’s weaknesses. But it is also worth discovering and describing your opponent’s strengths, with the aim not only of punishing their weaknesses but also, and above all, of countering their strengths. A chess player takes both into account.

The West is not yet finished, even though we can see the cracks appearing. The Global South still has a lot to work on, even though we are cautiously seeing some outlines emerging. I am a Westerner, but I hope that the Western Empire will come to an end and eventually merge into the multipolar world that the Global South envisions. However, I see many Western influences in the Global South and cannot bear the thought that in a century’s time the cycle will repeat itself and that the multipolar world will be just the same as what the West is now. That possibility is very real, because humanity as a species has not changed significantly.

The question is also when that multipolar world will actually take shape. I am convinced that the process has irrevocably started and will continue steadily until it reaches a conclusion. If not within five years, then within fifty years. There are too many signs and there are many historical comparisons of cycles that make this clear. We also know that the faster these kinds of processes take place, the more turbulent the situation will be. A cornered cat will do strange things; if you drive a rat into a corner, it will try to bite you to death. But also if an organization grows too fast, it will develop unnaturally, with many tensions that will erupt later.

What should readers do? Every day, numerous writers present many opinions and interpretations of many details. The shelf life of that material is limited, and before you know it, you are living in your own bubble of self-righteousness and superficiality. I am not saying that consuming details on a daily basis has no value, but it is limited, and the challenge is to broaden your awareness. It is not necessary, but it is a possibility. What is the big picture? What is the long-term strategy? What is the opponent doing well and what can you learn from that? But also, what can you do yourself to apply your knowledge and insights?

Do you pass on your knowledge and insights to others? Do you also talk to people in that other bubble? Do you think about how the world can change and what your contribution to that can be? Are emotions such as anger and contempt necessary for change, or is it about essential awareness and love? I have written several essays on this subject, and there is a common thread running through them. Try to understand what I mean, because you are certainly entitled to judge and condemn the West. What the West has caused and is currently doing in the world is despicable. As a Westerner, I am ashamed of this. But it does not help to leave it at that.

The world will only truly improve when people change, when people learn to tap into their inner knowledge and become truly conscious. We must find a balance in seeing the world as it is (currently rotten, as many writers make clear to us) and try to develop ourselves into loving, conscious beings. The latter is desperately needed, and we all have a long way to go in that regard. It is a difficult path, because we are traveling it in an environment of death and destruction. Try to keep a cool head and a loving heart.

I often fail to do so myself. There have been moments when I hated all of humanity and could have wiped it out with the push of a button. It is human, but it is not the path of evolution. We will have to go through this suffering and learn from it. This transcends our individual lives, which makes it difficult for us as individuals to comprehend and accept. Before humanity truly changes, we will all be long dead. That is to say, we will have already left this current Earthly adventure behind us. How you want to deal with this is up to you, because every person walks their own path at their own pace. If you only want to consume news, that is just possible.

I hope that readers are willing to take a step further and expand their consciousness. That is our future, and the more people who do so, the faster our species can and will evolve. Humans have enormous potential in terms of evolution, but unfortunately, we have been messing things up on Earth for thousands of years. Try to discover who you really are, what your own path in life is, and what else you can contribute beyond what you are already doing. These actions will make an enormous contribution to the evolution of consciousness. These actions are good for you and for the world, and that is how we can truly change the world.

Nico Cost