Judo – The “Gentle Way” (柔道)

Judo serves as a metaphor for the strategy that Russia, China, and other non-Western powers can use against the West. Judo is about using the opponent’s strength and momentum against themselves, rather than direct brute force. A desirable approach to the current geopolitical situation is to prevent large-scale conflict.

Judo is a Japanese martial art developed in the late 19th century by Jigoro Kano (1860–1938). He was a small, intellectual man who defended himself against bullies. He studied various jiu-jitsu schools and combined the most effective techniques. In Tokyo, he founded the first judo institute, the Kodokan, and removed dangerous techniques, emphasizing throwing and control techniques instead.

Judo has a strong philosophical and pedagogical character. The philosophy is Seiryoku Zen’yo (maximum efficiency, minimum effort) and Jita Kyoei (mutual goodwill). The core principles are Kuzushi (balance disruption), Tsukuri (positioning), and Kake (executing the throw). Since 1964, Judo has been an Olympic sport.

The West – The Bully

The West, led first by the UK and now the U.S., has pursued global domination for centuries. First, through colonization and slavery. Now, with unfair financial systems, installation of corrupt dictators through color revolutions and massacres, abuse of infiltrated international organizations through veto rights, and military interventions from threats to actual gross violence.

Russia’s special military operation against the regime in Ukraine shows that countries are now capable of standing up against the hegemon. After nearly three years, it is clear that Russia is winning and can successfully conclude the operation – yet the West refuses to accept this and appears eager to escalate.

In any case, the U.S. now even wants to impose 100% trade tariffs on countries doing business with Russia, including especially China and India. This is yet another red line the West is crossing and Russia must consider its options – what it can do and perhaps what it must do. Because the West twists the truth as it pleases and the U.S. changes its position as easily as toddlers do when they don’t get their way.

Then there is the Gaza issue, because Israel continues to systematically commit genocide. The U.S. and EU apply double standards by doing nothing to stop Israel. Worse, they keep supplying weapons and hundreds of Palestinians die daily due to Israel with weapons from the West. In fact, the U.S. and EU are complicit in this genocide by violating treaties on human and children’s rights. The West is morally corrupt and culturally bankrupt – a declining Empire that, despite its fierce resistance, will inflict immense suffering before its inevitable collapse.

The situation around Taiwan could become explosive because the U.S. keeps supplying weapons and intelligence to Taiwan. While at the same time speaking with a forked tongue, because it also supposedly agrees with the One-China policy. So we see on three fronts a spectrum of violence, genocide, and threat. All this could result in WWIII. That is to say, a kinetic war, because we can actually already state that on almost all other fronts, WWIII has long since begun.

The West, led by the U.S., is seen by the non-West as an aggressive, morally corrupt power that maintains its dominance through economic exploitation, military interventions, and political manipulation. Most Westerners, through centuries of effective Western propaganda, assume that Western opinion is dominant globally. They don’t know that the West represents less than 20% of the world on almost all fronts. The non-West represents over 80% of the world. The non-West has had enough of the West’s zero-sum mentality instead of seeking win-win outcomes. What is worse, that you are hated or that you are despised?

The question now is how the non-West can and will deal with the inevitable downfall of the Western Empire. While the West pushes for direct confrontation, the non-West should continue playing chess (a -mental- metaphor I’ve used in earlier essays) and also use judo (a -physical- metaphor in this essay) to be able to win without really having to fight. What can Russia and China now do to prevent WWIII, but ensure that the downfall of the West can proceed as quietly as possible? There is no talking to the West and no agreements to be made. The West will keep pushing for conflict and refuse compromise.

Historical Parallels

In history there are several examples of power shifts where a dominant civilization fell, often accompanied by chaos and conflict.

1. Fall of the Roman Empire (5th century AD)
   Slow erosion through internal corruption, economic crisis, military overstretch and external pressure from “barbarian” peoples. A power vacuum emerged with different parties fighting each other’s interests.
   Parallel today: The West struggles with institutional stagnation, political polarization and decreasing economic dominance.
2. End of the British Empire (20th century)
   After WWII the UK could no longer maintain its colonies due to financial exhaustion and rising nationalism. The U.S. took over the role of world leader, but without direct colonization – through economic and military influence (Bretton Woods system, NATO).
   Parallel today: The U.S. is losing influence through multipolarity (e.g. BRICS), but tries to compensate with sanctions and military presence.
3. Cold War (1947–1991)
   A bipolar world where the U.S. and U.S.S.R. fought through proxy wars but avoided direct confrontation (mutual nuclear deterrence). The U.S.S.R. eventually fell apart through internal weakness, not direct military defeat.
   Lesson for today: Power shifts can proceed peacefully, but require strategic patience and avoiding existential provocations.

What Russia and China Can Do to Prevent WWIII

The following things are already happening and it’s a race against time whether the West goes bankrupt first, becomes aware it has lost and accepts it, or decides to escalate to a final all-destructive attempt to retain power.

1. Economic and diplomatic consolidation
   Strengthening alternative systems outside Western control (e.g., BRICS+, yuan/ruble trade, CIPS payment system).
   India for example is a crucial “swing state” – by sparing or rewarding them (e.g., cheap energy, technology transfer) the West can become further isolated.
2. Asymmetric escalation management
   Russia has shown that the West is reluctant to engage in direct military intervention (as seen in Ukraine). A similar strategy for Taiwan: preventing a NATO-style alliance in Asia by making China’s “red lines” clear.
   Gaza: Russia/China can use their UN veto to brand Israeli actions as war crimes, diplomatically isolating the West.
3. Information warfare
   The West is vulnerable to internal division (e.g., protests against support for Israel, farmer protests in Europe). Russia and China can strengthen these wedges through social media and cooperation with anti-establishment groups (without direct escalation).
4. Technological self-sufficiency
   Sanctions have made Russia more resilient (import substitution). China must further build up its chip industry and energy security to better withstand a Western blockade.

The collapse of a hegemon is rarely peaceful, but World War III is not inevitable. Russia and China can:

• Prevent: By not letting the West feel an existential threat (Taiwan case/NATO expansion), but exploiting its economic and moral weaknesses.
• Guide: Further isolate the West through multilateral platforms (UN, BRICS) without going to frontal attacks.
• Survive: Ensure their own societies maintain cohesion – because the West will try to sow division (as in Hong Kong or via Russian liberal opposition).

History teaches that empires often fall mainly through internal contradictions, less through external factors or battles. Patience and avoiding hasty escalation are crucial.

Applying Judo Strategy in Geopolitics

Many of us are impatient and think Russia and China could take a harder stance to force and secure the downfall of the West. We see an accident happening in slow motion – powerless to do anything about it. We know what is needed, but feel dependent on the opponent’s moves. What’s needed is patience and concentration, then anticipation and flexibility.

Pitfalls to avoid:

• Pushing too hard: If Russia/China become too aggressive (e.g. invading Taiwan), the West may regroup. Judo only works when the opponent is moving.
• Forgetting to fall: A good judoka also knows how to fall (ukemi). Russia and China must be prepared for economic shocks (sanctions, cyberattacks) without panicking.
• Ignoring the referee: The West still controls many international institutions (IMF, UN Security Council). Russia and China should leverage these platforms to morally discredit the West – for instance, by exposing its hypocrisy on Gaza.

We must also not forget that many Western leaders genuinely believe they are on the right side of history. They truly think Russia is the aggressor – without any self-reflection or historical awareness. This mirrors people still lining up for COVID-19 vaccines, convinced they’re doing good. Or with people unconditionally supporting Israel, because the Holocaust can justify anything. Against us stands an opponent that is largely unconscious and incompetent – unfortunately equipped with nuclear means.

Kuzushi (バランスを崩す – Unbalancing)

The West (especially the US) is strong but overstretched:

• Economically: Sanctions against Russia have driven up energy and food prices in Europe, causing social unrest.
• Militarily: Support for Ukraine and Israel is depleting weapon arsenals, while U.S. debt explodes.
• Morally: Double standards (e.g. Gaza vs. Ukraine) undermine Western soft power.

Judo move: Russia and China don’t need to attack the West directly – they can let it trip over its own policies (e.g. circumventing sanctions through alternative currencies like the yuan or ruble).

India is an important player that should not be underestimated in the geopolitical game being played. It’s important to get India further on board with BRICS and loosen it further from Western influence.

India is annoyed by hypocritical Western moralistic preaching about human rights, while it itself supports Gaza or imposes sanctions on the Global South.

Judo move: Russia/China can reinforce India’s positions in UN forums (e.g. on Kashmir, Palestine) and thus show that the West doesn’t care about India’s sovereignty. Russia can also supply cheap energy and China can invest in infrastructure without moral conditions.

Tsukuri (仕掛け – Positioning for the Throw)

The West is trying to corner Russia and China (through NATO expansion, Taiwan provocations, sanctions).

Judo move: Instead of panicking, Russia and China can:

• Economically: Build a parallel financial system (BRICS+, gold-backed currencies).
• Militarily: Deploy asymmetric means (hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare) to discourage Western intervention.
• Diplomatically: Convince the Global South that the West is an unstable player (e.g. by supporting UN resolutions on Gaza).

India and other countries want strategic autonomy, not new masters. Russia and China must present themselves as more reliable partners than the West.

Kake (掛け – Executing the Throw)

When the West is off balance (economic crisis, political division, military exhaustion), the counterattack can come:

• Russia: Force a peace agreement in Ukraine on its terms, causing the West to lose face.
• China: Achieve peaceful reunification with Taiwan by diplomatically isolating the US.
• BRICS: Exclude the West from resource trade (e.g. African minerals, Middle Eastern oil).

Once India and other countries are economically and diplomatically tied to Russia-China, the West becomes marginal. Russia and China don’t need to convince India and other countries – they just need to offer a better alternative than the West by:

• Setting no conditions (no moral lessons about democracy).
• Offering concrete benefits (cheap energy, weapons, infrastructure).
• Letting the West fail (through its own sanctions and arrogance).

Result: India and other countries will naturally turn away from the West, without Russia and China needing direct confrontation.

Allies – potential

Pay attention not just to opponents, but especially to (potential) allies. To get leaders and elites of strategic countries (India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.) to intrinsically choose cooperation with Russia and China, you must appeal to their deepest fears, ambitions and loyalties.

India wants no Western interference, is proud of its own civilization and needs safe havens for its capitalist trade. Emphasize how the West exploited India for centuries and now tries to maintain control through neocolonialism. Do business that also satisfies their own capitalist oligarchs. Support cultural initiatives that are anti-Western.

Turkey would love to restore historical greatness (the Ottoman Empire). The Turkish elite has money parked in European banks, but doesn’t want to become dependent now that Europe aims for digitalization of identity and wallets. The West supports Kurdish separatists. Russia and China can play an important role here by for example offering crypto trade or gold trade to circumvent sanctions.

Saudi Arabia wants to secure oil revenues and seeks investment opportunities towards a less oil-dependent future. The royal family wants to survive – it knows the West’s games all too well. Russia and China can also play a protective role and offer (financial) business.

Again and again, the following messages should be conveyed:

• “The West will betray you.”
• “You are a civilization, not a colony.”
• “We protect your interests.”
• “BRICS, not the West, is your future.”

Then there are countries that currently still mainly side with the West. But these countries too can change course if the wind is favorable for them. Ultimately the inevitable domino effect will reach all countries. Russia and China can already disrupt the balance now.

Japan faces a huge challenge given its aging population and dire financial situation. China is its biggest trading partner and there are major opportunities there. The U.S. atomic bombs are not forgotten and the U.S. keeps Japan artificially small. Russia and China should get much better at soft power – influence through narratives and propaganda.

South Korea hates American sanctions and has a huge market in China. Young people see the U.S. as an occupying force. There is fear the U.S. will drag them into war with North Korea. Russia and China could play a mediating role here. Obtained freedom cannot be taken away again and China would do well to give examples of a freer society.

Australia likes doing business with China, but companies suffer under sanctions. China could play regions against each other by lifting trade blockades for cooperating states. A competitive position with India could also be used to fuel distrust towards the US.

The European Union can be divided through an energy strategy. Russia could offer Germany silent gas resumption and China could threaten to close car battery factories in Eastern Europe. Germany could offer France a joint space program as alternative to NASA. China could offer Hungary investments for infrastructure projects to replace EU funds.

Possible Less Ethical Interventions

The question is whether less ethical interventions are desirable, because then you do the same as what the West has been doing for so long, making the world hate them. But let’s also be honest and realize that all countries including Russia and China of course play dirty games to achieve set goals.

• Let Erdoğan use F-16s for Greek provocations, dividing Europe.
• Poland vs. Germany: Russia could fuel Belarusian migrant flows to poison Warsaw-Berlin relations.
• Fuel anti-government protests in the West – just as color revolutions serve the same purpose.
• Use deepfakes in social media to discredit politicians and stir civil unrest; e.g. Macron insulting immigrants.
• Hack power grids and primary facilities to fuel population dissatisfaction and undermine trust in Western governments.
• Fuel migration flows to demographically and politically destabilize Western countries.
• China could suddenly dump U.S. Treasury bonds causing interest rates to explode.
• Russia could artificially drive up energy prices through gas pipeline sabotage.
• Far-left and far-right groups could be supported to create civil war-like scenes – just as NGOs do.
• Cloud-seeding could be used to cause floods and geo-engineering could be deployed to worsen droughts.
• Russia and China could offer safe havens for Western elites wanting to escape.

But perhaps little of this is needed, because the West is already in the process of killing itself. All those things the West has on its conscience are now backfiring and karma always does its work. Just as judo is a timing-sport, geopolitics requires strategic patience. The West’s 500-year dominance will not end overnight – its downfall will be gradual. Russia and China must cold-bloodedly watch as the West chokes on its own dogmas.

The Alternative is an Unvarnished Warning

If Russia (possibly with China) must execute a hard, irreversible power demonstration to show the West that its era of dominance is over, they could carry out a targeted, devastating action that:

1. Crushes the West militarily, economically and morally without risking total nuclear exchange.
2. Forces other countries to choose: submission or destruction.
3. Creates a psychological turning point where the West no longer has any credible countermove.

Completely cripple a specific NATO country through a combined cyber and drone attack on energy and transport networks and communication centers, rendering the country completely blind and deaf in a one-hour blitzkrieg. What will NATO do?

Destroying ten key NATO satellites would demonstrate NATO’s vulnerability and lack of safety. Various techniques to disable the satellites should demonstrate how far Russia is technologically ahead of NATO.

Such actions naturally have downsides. First, they could still lead to escalation and unforeseen fierce counterreactions. Second, you would sacrifice built-up image – the Global South would see you doing the same as what they despise about the West. Such actions are only done if you see no other way out and hope such a last resort prevents the West from starting an all-destructive nuclear exchange. If the move is perfectly timed, the West will back down and the world will know that power has been transferred.

A Final Judo Lesson: Win Without Fighting

“The highest form of martial arts is to defeat the enemy without fighting.” – Sun Tzu

Let’s hope we don’t end up in WWIII. So far, it’s going well. That is to say, it’s going well on a strategic level. On an operational level, it’s going badly, because millions have already died in the fight against the oppressor. Gaza is a slaughterhouse. Ukraine a bloodbath. Europe is preparing for war. The U.S. says one thing but does another. We’re dealing with an opponent that adheres to no rules and has no honor. It’s Judo against a kickboxer – who also carries a hidden knife to stab you in the back with pleasure.

Judo seems like a “Gentle Way”, but of course it’s anything but. It’s practicing elite sports and demands the utmost from humans who want to defend themselves against bullies – morally superior to the opponent. Always being able to look yourself in the mirror – with a clear conscience. You don’t want to fight, but you have no choice when attacked – winning is not a goal, but a result. Hopefully the opponent will ultimately be a good loser – we do live on the same planet and will have to make do with each other in time. Time will heal all wounds, but unfortunately more wounds will be added first. There is little choice – unfortunately.

Nico Cost, July 15, 2025