What has Iran accomplished? (Update)

(Update – Israeli Broadcasting Authority: the government decided to carry out a powerful attack on Iran. This is believed to be imminent. Bibi’s Buddy Trump is bellowing: ‘Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later’. Benjamin Netenyahu is expected to deliver a speech. We’ve heard these rumors all day long – vindicates my thesis, no deterrence has been established. US CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla has landed in Israel to meet with Israeli military officials amid IDF preparations for a response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, Israeli media report.)

There still remains deep controversy on Iran’s president Pezeshkian, and his actions both at the UN and his acceptance of a promise by the so-called peace negotiators that they will guarantee a cease-fire, for Gaza as well, if Iran would just postpone, or better, cancel or delay, or excercise restraint and not respond or retaliate to the killing for martyr Haniyeh’s assassination.

Alastair Crooke explains this yet again:

🚨ALASTAIR CROOKE ON IRAN🇮🇷 VS ISRAEL

‘There has been a lot of criticism, that this self-restraint, much advocated by the reformist wing in Iran, has contributed to Israel feeling in part to be able to take out the whole of the Hezbollah leadership including Sayyed Hassan… pic.twitter.com/5SFelpSHBY

— Going Underground (@GUnderground_TV) October 5, 2024

Let us leave that aside for a moment and take a look at what Iran has accomplished with their delayed action and their missile barrage into israel. There were three objectives:

– retaliation,
– establish some state of peace even how rocky,
– establish deterrence?

My answer to all of those is of course Yes to retaliation but it does not have the sense of complete retaliation. Again, Iran acted mildly although spectacularly.
The answer is NO to a state of peace even how rocky.
NO to deterrence. Iran has neither established deterrence nor even a modicum of a peaceful domain despite Pezeshkian supposed message of peace at the UN.

A scant four hours after the last Iranian missile fell, isreal was bombing again. The genocide continues. Gaza is still being tortured day after day. The West Bank is in a dire position. Lebanon’s people live in camps retreating ahead of israel/US’s war machine on civilians. Just in: “Zionist aircraft bombed border crossings between Lebanon and Syria in an attempt to cut off supplies to the Lebanese resistance. The strikes killed many people. As a result of airstrikes in Syria, Syrian army soldiers Rajab Muhammad, Abdul Majidu Abdul Habash, Ali Ibrahim al-Mulla Hamoud, Mahmoud Ibrahim al-Abdullah, and Ahmed Muhammad Akko were killed. A large number of Syrian civilians were also killed, including student Tima al-Ghazi , the daughter of renowned Syrian physician Dr. Hassan al-Ghazi.”

This war expanded so Iran was not successful on the retaliation front.

On the Pezeshkian issue, we will have to leave that for Iran to handle. My guess is that he will be somewhat sidelined into a position of a president in name, somewhat of a lame duck that gets trotted out at State functions. I do not even want to touch the subject of how the westoids laughed at him for falling for their lies one more time. Do we not know yet that we cannot believe them and we cannot accept any negotiations with them? The blood starts boiling. Nevertheless it is an Iranian issue and we can leave that behind in the firm knowledge that Iran is Resistance and fully capable of dealing with their own president. In the big scheme of things the timeline was only shifted a tad and the genocide continued unabated for another month or so. What is the cost of a few hundred more civilians dead. We see the cost daily.

The trajectory of deterrence is the same as that of Russia. In this case, Trump bellowed victory and is still bellowing about striking Iranian nuclear facilities. The rest of the US current administration shaved the real impact of the barrage to nothingness. The missile barrage is now almost old, as the media in the west soon started spinning and lying and their people are not assured that Iran actually acted in their own defense. We have not seen an acceptance of Iran’s actions despite the real and clear impact and success of their missile strike. We only see more sanctions as a start. Clouds were painted over the damage, and the war continued more fiercely. Israel does this. They act out of sheer hatred and take punitive action. As usual, for these people, history starts with Iran’s missile barrage and the call for retaliation for that is now burning! Iran in a sense only woke up the warmongers.

In these eyes history does not exist and neither does deterrence from the other party.

We have all seen that the deterrence that Russia created with their SMO, is now at the level of nuclear threat. In israel as well, the nuclear word is still muted, but also prevalent in certain spheres.

The genocide continues.

We can expect:

1) a long war, like Russia’s SMO. Each time that the end is in sight, the west puts a bunch of more firewood on the fire and stokes it and Russia has to deter more,
2) Iran attacking for real and in coordination with the other resistance factions. Hebollah, Hamas, the Iraqi resistance, the Houthis and all the other small resistance groupings
3) a quick attack on Iran.

I don’t believe Iran will attack as BRICS is around the corner and Iran is BRICS. A quick attack on Iran is highly probable.

There is a further comment that I have and that is that we have to moderate our massive expectation that miracles will happen at the upcoming BRICS summit. We are still infested with neo-naziism and sheer fascism. NATO is making a pest of itself around China and they are making progress. China is in a position that they deter.

For these people, the enemy, the empire, deterrence does not exist, only full-spectrum dominance. That leaves two long wars of genocide and possibly more to come, unless the world decides to go into Word War territory and smash these inhuman and sick philosophies to smithereens.

We balance between an evolutionary approach (China), or a revolutionary approach ( ? ).

Quo vadis?