Russian strategic commentary from our Group of Friends
S, 18 Aug 2026:
Russia is considering rail routes to the Indian Ocean through Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin says risks at the Bosphorus and Strait of Hormuz mean Moscow needs alternative access to India. The objective is to preserve trade if a chokepoint closes or Western-controlled maritime services are withdrawn.
Western sea power rests on more than warships. Insurance, finance, brokerage and port services can determine whether cargo moves at all. The oil price cap exposed the mechanism: Britain banned maritime transport and related services for Russian oil sold above a price set by the G7-led coalition, while the EU denied hundreds of tankers access to its ports and services. The West tried to dictate not only where Russia could trade, but the price charged to third-country buyers.
The most advanced alternative is the International North–South Transport Corridor through Azerbaijan and Iran. It already carried around 20M tonnes in 2024. Its critical missing link is the 162-km Rasht–Astara railway, which will create continuous rail infrastructure along the western Caspian route. Russia is backing it with a €1.3B state loan, while Iran has granted a Russian company access to land for construction. Moscow expects the completed western branch to handle at least 15M tonnes annually.
A second axis would cross Central Asia and Afghanistan to Karachi and Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, bypassing Hormuz. Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed a framework for a feasibility study in 2025. Russian officials estimate the route could eventually carry 8M–15M tonnes of Russian cargo a year.
Rail cannot replace tankers and bulk carriers. Its value is strategic redundancy: keeping critical trade moving when Suez, Hormuz, the Bosphorus or Western maritime services become unavailable. A backup route does not need to be cheaper than the sea to become priceless when the sea is closed. These corridors would turn Eurasian integration into physical infrastructure. Shared tracks require common tariffs, customs rules, terminals and security arrangements. Iran becomes a bridge between Russia and India, Afghanistan gains a stake in transit stability, and Pakistan becomes an ocean gateway for inland Eurasia. The West converted maritime infrastructure into a sanctions weapon. Russia’s answer is a continent-spanning transport insurance policy—one designed to ensure that no naval bloc, port authority or insurer can decide alone who is allowed to participate in Eurasian trade.
The rise of Eurasia is upon us.
“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; who rules the World Island commands the world.” – Sir Halford Mackinder.
[end.]
Battlefield developments and some Western policy responses to the growing recognition that Russia has the strategic initiative:
https://theduran.com/russia-smashes-key-zaporozhzhie-dnieper-bridge-starts-surrounding-kramatorsk-kiev-protests-resume/
17 Aug 2026. Mercouris. 1 hour, 20 mins.
Ukraine War on Wildberries, Russia Smashes Steel Industry. Ballistic Missile Escalation
17 Aug 2026. Christoforou. 34 mins.
18 Aug 206. Mercouris. 1 hour, 15 mins.
S, 18 Aug 2026:
🇷🇺⚡️ — A report about a 35-meter-high anti-aircraft tower equipped with “Pantsir-S1M” short-range air defense systems, which have been constructed since 2023 in several rings around Moscow, forming the basis of the capital region’s anti-drone defense.
Recently, similar towers have also begun to be built in other regions of the country.
The air defense system also uses new, compact surface-to-air missiles, the TKB-1055 “Gvozd”, specifically designed for use against drones.
Bit by bit Russia will adapt to the threats put out by NATO.
I’m sure these defences will move closer and closer to the Ukrainian border over time, and then pop up on the Baltic coast and Finland. [end.]
S, 18 Aug 2026:
🇷🇺 NASA Confirms Massive Fire at Nikolaev Aluminum Plant Following Russian Strike
Approximately 15 minutes after today’s missile strike on an object near Nikolaev, NASA satellites detected a significant fire at the local alumina plant. [end.]
S, 18 Aug 2026:
🇷🇺 Armed Forces of Russia struck the Kievguma factory, forcing it to halt production. The enterprise specialized in manufacturing rubber, latex, PVC, TEP, and silicone products. Additionally, it produced optical fiber for Ukrainian drones and military equipment. Operations at the facility are now suspended following the strike [end.]
S, 19 Aug 2026:
🇺🇦 Krivoy Rog Thermal Power Station
Krivoy Rog – DTEK reported that one of its thermal power stations has ceased electricity generation following a massive shelling. The equipment sustained significant damage. The incident most likely concerns the Krivoy Rog TPP. [end.]
S, 19 Aug 2026:
🇺🇦 Explosions and sirens sound today in Kiev Oblast.
Russian Armed Forces struck a fuel storage facility in Brovary, which supplies fuel to Kiev. [end.]
S, 19 Aug 2026:
🇷🇺🇺🇦U.S. intelligence warns of the threat of massive strikes on Kiev
– Kiev residents have been hiding in the metro since evening.
– U.S. intelligence has warned of a high probability of massive shelling of Kiev and the surrounding area in the next 48 hours, according to Ukrainian media.
– Also, since evening, the Russian Armed Forces have been scouting targets in western Ukraine for a possible massive attack: a reconnaissance “Shahed” drone with a camera is flying over the region, monitoring resources reported. [end.]
S, 19 Aug 2026:
🇲🇩 Moldova
President Maia Sandu claims strategic necessity to support Ukrainian grain transit. She warns that if Kiev loses export revenue, its ability to fund defense will collapse, creating “disproportionately harsher” security challenges for Moldova.
The post argues that under pressure, the use of Moldovan infrastructure for dual-use goods and eventually military supplies is inevitable. This requires no formal “Polish-style” corridor, only gradual expansion of transit categories: fuel, vehicles, comms, and engineering assets first, then more sensitive cargo. Political justification is already forming: supporting Ukraine’s resistance is framed as a prerequisite for Moldova’s own safety. [end.]
S, 19 Aug 2026:
US Ex-Defense Official Suggests Pausing Iran Strikes to Aid Ukraine
Former US Assistant Secretary of Defense Evelyn Farkas advises Trump against new strikes on Iran, arguing this would free up Patriot missiles for Zelensky. She notes Kiev wants 5-10% of US stockpiles, calling it a strategic deal to weaken Russia and its ties with Tehran.
Shortages Halt Escalation
The New York Times reports ammo shortages influenced Trump’s decision to avoid a “massive strike.” Military commanders warned that current tactics fail regardless of volume. The US must now choose between priorities amid critically low ammunition reserves, opting for blockade and negotiations instead. [end.]