Towards Lasting Peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

From Zamir Awan

On August 8, 2025, an event unfolded on the world stage that once seemed unimaginable: at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed the “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan”, under the mediation of U.S. President Donald Trump. This landmark accord, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), not only signals the formal end of nearly four decades of conflict but also heralds a new era of stability, connectivity, and mutual respect in the South Caucasus.

A Troubled Past: History of Conflict

The Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, once part of the Soviet Union, have had a fraught relationship since the late 1980s—principally over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited predominantly by ethnic Armenians. Tensions escalated into full-scale war in the early 1990s, leaving thousands dead and displacing many more.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a decisive military offensive, reclaiming control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Artsakh Defense Army was disbanded, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh dissolved by early 2024

Since then, both countries have engaged in cautious steps toward normalization, even as deep mistrust and regional rivalries persisted.

The Agreement: A Framework for Peace

This August’s White House ceremony marked a turning point. The agreement commits both nations to:

• Cease hostilities permanently,
• Establish full diplomatic and trade relations,
• Respect each other’s territorial integrity, and
• Launch border delimitation and security cooperation efforts

A key feature is the creation of the Zangezur corridor—the “TRIPP”—a strategically placed transit route linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. Governed under Armenian law, the land will be subleased to a U.S.-led consortium for 99 years, aimed at building infrastructure including rail, energy, and telecommunications lines

The Trump Factor: Mediation and Guarantees

President Trump played a central role in brokering this agreement. Describing the moment as “one of immense peace,” he clasped the hands of both leaders during the signing ceremony at the White House, underscoring his personal commitment. His administration negotiated terms over multiple diplomatic visits, building on groundwork laid by previous U.S. and EU efforts.

Trump secured a strategic transit corridor, enhanced U.S. military and economic cooperation with both countries, and positioned America as a key guarantor and stakeholder in the region’s future. Observers even speculated that the leaders may jointly nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize, given the scale of the breakthrough

Extending Hands: International Reactions

Turkey welcomed the agreement enthusiastically, seeing in the TRIPP corridor a direct link to Azerbaijan and a boost to regional economic synergy.

Russia, once the primary powerbroker in the Caucasus, has seen its influence wane—this outcome signals a tangible shift in regional geopolitics

The European Union issued supportive statements, describing the accord as a meaningful step toward “lasting, sustainable peace” and urging full implementation of normalization measures

Iran—while acknowledging the peace initiative—voiced real concerns. Citing security and sovereignty risks, Tehran warned it might block the corridor should it harm its regional interests

Pakistan’s Voice of Support

Pakistan has officially welcomed this historic agreement. In its statement, Islamabad praised the sagacity and leadership of Azerbaijan in achieving a peaceful resolution to a prolonged conflict. It also extended appreciation to President Trump for facilitating peace, noting his broader global contributions to conflict resolution. Pakistan emphasized the accord’s potential not just for Azerbaijan and Armenia, but for the whole region, including the South Caucasus and beyond. As a steadfast advocate of peace, it expressed hope that this moment marks the dawn of prosperity, enduring peace, and regional integration.

Why This Matters: Significance and Impact

End to Frozen Conflict

With decades of grueling warfare and stalemates behind them, both nations now step forward into a future bound by cooperation, not confrontation.

Connectivity and Prosperity

The TRIPP will be a vital artery for commerce, energy, and people—potentially facilitating transit from Europe through Turkey into Central Asia & beyond, opening new trade routes and economic corridors

Buffering Regional Influences

The agreement reduces dependency on Russia, repositioning the U.S. as a stabilizing force. For Turkey and the EU, it offers expanded regional collaboration. Iran must recalibrate its role amid new dynamics.

Model for Peace

The agreement’s structure—linking strategic infrastructure to diplomatic progress—offers a template that could inspire resolutions in other post-conflict zones.

Confidence Building

While the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh remains sensitive, progress on borders, trade, and governance could lay the foundation for more comprehensive peace in the future.

Challenges Ahead

Skepticism remains—particularly in Armenia, where concerns persist over the absence of formal safeguards for Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population and the broader implications of territorial concessions

Implementation hurdles—such as border delimitation, infrastructure funding, and political shifts—must be overcome. Iran’s opposition to the TRIPP also poses a geopolitical flashpoint.

A Road Forward

This peace agreement, signed on August 8, 2025, is nothing short of historic. It signals an end to the longest post-Soviet conflict, unlocks economic and infrastructural potential, and redefines the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. President Trump’s role as mediator gave the accord momentum and global weight.

Leading regional players—Turkey, Russia, the EU, and Iran—now face a transformed environment. Pakistan’s warm endorsement adds further diplomatic support, rooted in a shared commitment to peace and stability.

If implemented faithfully, this agreement could usher in an enduring era of peace, prosperity, and regional integration—one that benefits not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but all their neighbors. May this new chapter bring hope where there was once strife—and may it stand as a testament to what vision, leadership, and cooperation can achieve.

Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).