After the Road to Damascus…

By Strategika51 at strategika510.com. 

[machine translation)

This brief analysis of the rapid evolution of an advanced phase of the war, hybrid ongoing global attempts to identify elements of intelligibility to a developing situation and can not claim in any way to enter a meaningful way the reality of the phenomenon underlying that allowed for the moment to one of the main protagonists take a sleeve….

In the sake of terminology, we opted for the use of the following terms to identify the protagonists :

I.  Front of the Levant/Middle East/Arabian Peninsula/Persian Plateau/Indian Ocean

here we have a military alliance integrated formed by the USA and Israel, the latter entity depends entirely on the resources, economic and military of the US and their traditional allies. We will refer, rather, forces the american-zionist even if other forces were joined to them, and are involved, each in one level, to the war effort to ensure the supremacy of US on this region and rehabilitate the myth of dominance israel in the Middle East, the sine qua non for the survival of this entity.

In front, there are three non-state actors whose efforts are not synchronized or in synergy. It is specifically the movement of Hamas Palestinians in the enclave of Gaza, the party of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Lebanon (especially in the South of Lebanon), as well as the movement of Ansar Allah in Yemen to the North. Two of these organizations, Lebanon and Yemen, are supported by a State-of the region, Iran and Syria before the dissolution of the Assad regime. The Hamas movement, which was registered against the syrian regime since the beginning of the war, hybrid aimed at regime change in Damascus on 15 march 2011, has somewhat changed her posture under the impetus of the operational heads as Al-Sinwar, but returned to its initial posture immediately after the death of the latter.

From a symbolic point of view, the Iranian media have had a propensity to speak of an axis, said of the resistance, and would have encompassed the continuum strategic Iran-Syria-Hezbollah via an Iraq allegiances uncertain and changing view of the persistence of the influence of the US on this country. The rebels yemenis have been subsumed by the result in this axis, the relevance of which is far from having been established because this is not a military alliance de jure, but a kind of tool for projecting influence is the symbolic opposite of the policy of US in the region.

II.  Front Eurasia

The situation on this front looks more simple to identify the level of protagonists. On the one hand the United States and their NATO allies and non-NATO support Ukraine against the Russian Federation. Due to the special relationship between Russia and Belarus, the latter is regarded as an ally of Moscow, even if it is not directly involved in the conflict. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in the middle of the conflict has had as a corollary asymmetric approximation spectacular historic of Russia with North Korea, allowing this country to break its isolation and have access to resources that Washington has long denied.

III.  Evolution of Hybrid World War

The current phase of the world war hybrid is characterized by the appearance of a comparative advantage of type T (technology), which has provided a significant advance in the empire against all its opponents on the field. This advantage is non-existent when removing precipitate of US forces from Afghanistan, explains the immense efforts of Russia to face the empire and its proxies in Ukraine in spite of its resources, but translates fairly remarkable in the Middle East where a force strong structured as the lebanese Hezbollah had lost all of his leadership and coaching before the syrian regime collapsed in a few days, almost no combat significant (800 dead in total) since Damascus is invested without firing a shot.

It is to be noted that the fall of Damascus was less the result of the offensive quite low elsewhere of the rebels in the North (Idleb), that the switch is subjected populations of the South, including Deraa, the stronghold and the birthplace of the syrian rebellion of 2011, alongside former rebels of the Free Syrian Army (ASL) have been integrated in a process of standardization by the former regime. 

This shift is the result of a dynamic of the major tribes southerners have an affinity with the major tribes in neighboring Jordan and it is almost the same elements that had helped to Lawrence of Arabia to break the yoke of the Ottoman empire on the arabian Peninsula and enabled later the British to establish entities that are artificial, such as Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. These elements are therefore a sourdough opposed to any state construction and will remain so each time their economic interests will not conform to their expectations.

The fall of Damascus is therefore occurred 21 years after the fall of Baghdad following the invasion of US in this country.

It marks the end of ideology panarabiste Michel Aflak advocated by the parti Baath (Renaissance) and the end of the period a little old-fashioned of arab nationalism in favour of the ideology of the Muslim brotherhood, created in the 1920s on the instigation of the British, following the concept of the green blanket or Green Mantle.

It has been observed from the years 2010, a convergence between certain elements of the deep State in the US and the Muslim brotherhood, including Obama and Clinton, but they didn’t know exactly what is the exact function of this tool in the configuration of the Middle East until the beginning of the war in Syria. It is not accidental that Turkiye, one of the most prominent members of NATO will be led by a party that emerged from that movement and this is the decisive contribution Turkish, which has allowed the syrian rebels to return to Damascus with at their head a leader referred to as Al-Joulani (one who is a native of the Golan heights), and, therefore, a Druze, have nearly the same age as Zelensky in Ukraine.

IV.  The direct consequences of the fall of Damascus

A.  Syria
is the end of Syria as it has been shaped since 1971, the year of the accession in a coup by Hafez Al-Assad, father of Bashar, to power. Like all arab countries, Syria is a country that is extremely difficult to govern, and it is not excluded the appearance of irrédentismes old or ethnic claims and faith. Only arab country to have been technically at war with Israel in October 1973 to December 2024, the disappearance of his regime gave the pretext immediate to his enemy to append the 1/3 of the Golan heights, which had remained under control of syria and to recognize the Agreement on disengagement of 1974. The entry of israeli forces and US special forces in Syria is not a surprise.

B.  Russian forces
Russian Forces are present in Syria find themselves in a strange situation. They are not targeted by the rebel forces on the orders of Ankara, the influence of which is total on the new Syria. Moscow adopted a wait-and-see front to secure the fate of the two Russian bases of Tartus and Hmeimim, and the wait-and-see is risky because everything can change at any time and Washington might be tempted by a trap where the Russian forces will not go out free ‘ from Syria. For the moment, the Russian forces scattered all over Syria come together to the coast in anticipation of a decision of relocation or removal.

C.  Lebanon
Paradoxically, the lebanese Hezbollah has better absorbed the tremendous clash of forces and the american-zionist and helped to prevent an invasion of Lebanon at the cost of heavy losses. The direction of the Hezbollah has always feared a direct confrontation with the USA and yet it is that which is produced at the end with the consequent destruction of the management and staff of the party. However, against all expectations, the party has survived a shock that would have been able to annihilate the leadership of any country in the world and the disappearance of this country. One of the remaining options to the forces of american-zionist is to bypass the South Lebanon by the Anti-Lebanon, occupying the border between Syria and Lebanon. The position of the lebanese Hezbollah is far from easy : facing numerous opponents in Lebanon itself, it is now found between the three fronts in the face of the HTS syrian forces and the american-zionist.

The fall of the syrian government has put an end to the corridor of the supply of weapons and ammunition from Iran via Syria, and it is very unlikely, or impossible that the new masters of Damascus may consider a second to provide any type of assistance to what they perceive as an enemy of faith. On the territorial level, there is a proven risk of a break-up and the creation of the kinds of Bantustans.

D.  Iran
The fall of Syria has significantly weakened Iran. Defeating the continuum strategic linking Iran to the eastern Mediterranean, the empire has managed to destroy what was called the axis of the resistance (Hezbollah weakened, Syria out of the Iran without the means of projection). Added to this is the loss of influence of Iran in Iraq, where the power can collapse at any time. The empire will be attempted, therefore, to continue to push his advantage, and seek a collapse of the iranian regime, a new revolution of the color or even an armed revolt.

E.  Jordan and the Palestinian Authority
The current events in Syria are a threat to the plans of Amman and the control very precarious of the palestinian Authority on the Above-Jordan. The democratic demands of the syrian opposition out of the scope of the rebellion could bring the opposition crushed in Jordan and Jordan in a spirit of protest against plans archaic, despotic and very dysfunctional. This situation is the worst fear of Washington and Tel Aviv, because the loss of their sub-contractors shall bring it to manage an unknown situation, and contrary to their common interests.

F.  The countries of the Arab League
The fall of Syria clearly raises the relevance of the concept of the Nation State in the world, said the arab. The latter proved not only ineffective since he’s never really imposed on alternative structures to be able to much more ancient and stubborn but has resulted in a complete failure. This leads to the debate on the artificial nature of the Arab States and the relevance of their continuity as such. These territories have always been parts or fragments of the empire.

G.  Türkiye
Ankara is for the time being the major beneficiary of what happened in Syria : the country is going under the cut direct, and to the Turks as to reduce the ambitions of Kurds and ensure absolute control of Damascus. Technically the fall of the syrian regime puts Türkiye and Israel in direct contact in Syria as the two continue the expansion of their areas of influence and to Israel, annexing territories, following one of the foundations of israeli policy erecting the expansionism of the territorial State religion. However, it is more of the nature of the relations of Turkey with Russia will depend on the configuration of the new Syria.

H.  Israel
the entity is for the moment under the full protection of the United States, which led to a total war, as in 1917, and especially 1941-1945 in order to save this military outpost artificial dominated by an ideology, the result of a syncretism between fascism and bolshevism brought to their climax. This entity is in need of a myth of invincibility to continue and this work was entrusted to Washington. The military action, diplomatic, media and economic US in the Middle East is only to ensure that. Developing a concept of Leading from behind in a more elaborate, the United States fight in place of the Israelis, while giving them the credit. This posture is likely to change in the case of congruence in terms of military technologies, with the powers to question the hegemony US. Israel does not survive the loss of the umbrella US military.

I.  USA
Pursuing a militarism maniac in all conditions even more extreme than that of Japan until 1941, and having adopted all the conceptual tools of Germany between 1933 and 1945, under the guise of liberalism used to just camouflage, Washington adopts the policy of the USSR to address the clinical death of its political system, it is impossible to reform and end up with the most amazing tool in military and intelligence history. The intake technology by means of Elon Musk gave him a decisive advantage for the moment that enabled him to reduce to nil the concept of the Axis of said Resistance, the evaporation of the syrian regime and the reduction of Iran to its limits. In Eurasia, the advantage T allowed a war of attrition against Russia, but not its reduction seen the immense potential military of this country, and, above all, its resilience, in addition to the contribution of the production capacity of ammunition of North Korea. Many analysts focus on the intrinsic defects from Russia, but forget that face, it’s the same giant who defeated Germany, Italy and Japan (the latter with two atomic bombs) before vassaliser first to western Europe and eastern, while keeping the America of the South, and a large part of Asia in a sort of protectorate. This hegemony will continue as long as the technological advantage, military, non-disclosed and that the global economic system remains under control of a single clique.

The road to Damascus open, the next phase may be harder and much more confused than the previous one. The opponents current may not be those of yesterday, and the allies of yesterday will be the enemies of tomorrow. The next phase is the intermediate is announcing the next phase that will lead to the climax of a conflict without end, with or without remodeling to the sauce, american or other.