Xi Jinping arrives in a cleaned-up San Francisco for the APEC forum

Xi Jinping arrives in a cleaned-up San Francisco for the APEC forum.  This visit is based on American invitations and there are many and various articles stating that Xi has 4 aces for this visit.  This article went viral!  These aces are:

1) Despite the US’s immense efforts, Ukraine’s offensive has all but collapsed.

2) The US tech war on China has clearly flopped.

3) The Gaza war places China in a position where it has virtually the entire global South sharing its position (and a few Western countries like France) against an increasingly isolated US.

4) China now has “an overwhelming advantage in firepower” in its region (with for instance the largest ground-based missile force and largest navy in the world). The author concludes that “Biden is likely to respond to his weakened position by back-pedaling on Taiwan”, which might just be. We’ve actually just seen yesterday the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff declare in a departure from the recent alarmism that “Xi Jinping doesn’t actually want to take Taiwan by force”.

The expectations:

• The pair are poised to announce a ban on the use of AI-controlled autonomous drones and nuclear warheads (SCMP 1).  (China has already enacted certain export curbs on certain drones.  (I do not know if a ban on nuclear warheads will be announced at all and would be very surprised if it is).
• China has reportedly also agreed to crack down on the export of fentanyl precursor chemicals, with Xi and Biden set to finalize the deal (FT).
• The pair are also expected to announce the resumption of military-to-military dialogue, which has been stalled since August 2022 (AP).
• This is since Pelosi visited Taiwan.