The Peace Train redux (update)

I wrote a number of columns on the peace train, and the various contingents hooking their rail cars onto a supposed peace train.

I even rated these peace efforts, and besides China which presented a structure toward peace, none of them were worthwhile.  In the main, the focus is on Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity’, they see Russia as the aggressor, and nary a word is said about the underpinnings of the territorial integrity, which is the indivisible security principle. In addition, the belief still is that it is the SMO that caused food price increases across the world, despite Putin explaining exactly how the increases came to be (Green implementations that do not have viability and cannot maintain a regular cheap source of electrical and other power to power specifically the European countries, market meddling and a host of other factors).

The audience here was generally silent.  Hey Amarynth, we’re talking peace here .. why are you so sarcastic?

There is only one reason. I saw the creation of a fault line in what we generally call the multipolar countries, and I saw the exploitation of this fault line, and the slow erosion of the principle issues that could lead to a peace, in whatever form Ukraine ends up after of during this SMO.

Peace is not a single polarity issue in this case. And then we know that he who sups with the devil should have a long spoon.

We have a few so-called peace initiatives that are materially different from Russia’s requirements. Lula from Brazil keeps pushing his solution of a group of nations making the peace (i.e., the forceful application of a majority principle to the complete issue, probably with the finagling of some UN mechanisms), and the African contingent, despite all the very good news over the past weeks on the Russia-African summit, wants to be involved on some level or another in making peace. My opinion is of course that they have to first look to local peace, and they have a beautiful opportunity now in Niger and surroundings.

There was a so-called peace meeting in Copenhagen in late June. Countries that attended were Brazil, India, Turkey and South Africa. There is now a follow-up meeting scheduled in Saudi Arabia, imminent but dates have not been announced at this time of writing. The 30 Invitee countries include Chile, Egypt, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Zambia. Initially, China was invited, but Russia has not been invited and there is a reason for this.

The reason is that this is not a peace discussion. It is a discussion of Zelenski’s 10-point peace plan, which includes restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression, and security guarantees for Ukraine. In other words, victory for Ukraine and a loss for Russia via diplomatic and forced means. We may see this also as a hail Mary pass as discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine already has started in the US and the West is hysterical, because they cannot win with the current state of affairs. They can only spectacularly lose! So, they follow their usual process and start undermining the countries that hold a relatively independent stance.

This peace initiative is a carefully crafted US State Department plan because the only agenda item for this meeting, is Zelenski’s 10 point peace plan, which will mean that Russia loses, NATO wins, and the world is thrown back into a state of having to bow to the hegemon. This should be crystal clear to most of us here.

Again the effort here involves the creation of some kind of group of countries, a power bloc, that will stand together to somehow force their peace. It is rewarming of the oft-repeated statement of “our allies”. The hope is that global leaders would sign up to shared principles for resolving the war. It will be arm twisting, implied threats, and other such mechanisms to create a bloc or group to try to force a non-viable peace, Ukraine style.

China immediately refused this meeting. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, AMLO hammered it in and stated: Mexico refuses Ukraine talks without Russia. “If both Ukraine and Russia agree to seek a solution to achieve peace, we will participate,” said President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. “If two countries are represented, yes,” he specified when asked about the upcoming peace talks.

The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that any attempts to contribute to a peaceful settlement “deserve a positive assessment,” and what will happen in Saudi Arabia “remains to be seen.”

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that the talks in Saudi Arabia “will not be useless” if they “help the West realize that Zelensky’s plan has no prospects.”

We will be watching the results but these attendee countries should have a very long spoon and realize that they cannot force peace for Russia lest their spoon becomes the instrument of their own unsure fate in the new world.

China’s Peace Plan: Context

The Peace Train continues: building the record

Peace Train Ukraine: Potemkin Villages All! (Update)

Peace Train: Brazil, India, South Africa

Good news update: 

Brazil will not attend the summit on Ukraine, which is scheduled to be held in Saudi Arabia.

China, Mexico, and other countries from the “global south” have also refused to participate in the negotiations on Ukraine without Russia’s involvement.   An advisor to the Brazilian leader, Celso Amorim, pointed out that a previous meeting in Copenhagen failed to reach a consensus on Ukraine because Kiev insisted on discussing only its formula for ending the war.