M.A.D.

A series of snapshots – M.A.D Part I

From Nat South

A for aviation

More Than a Rescue: The Untold Story of a Serious U.S. Military Failure in Iran. 

This is the 2nd part of a sitrep and analysis on elements of the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. 

If you’ve following the legacy MSM  over the last few days, you’ve probably heard a relatively straightforward story, seemingly straight out of a Hollywood film script: an American F-15 fighter jet was downed in Iran, and the U.S. military rushed in to rescue the pilot.

But if you take a longer review of the various threads of information, and look at the actual evidence trickling out through international reports and military analysts, that simplistic narrative doesn’t hold, it disintegrates.

What we are actually looking at is one of the most staggering, poorly planned, and reckless U.S. military operations in modern history. And it’s a story that echoes a very dark chapter of U.S. military failures from the past, from the very same country.

The ‘Rescue’ that required an squadron of aircraft

Let’s start with the scale of what happened. According to Iranian media (Tasnim News Agency) and also backed up by various independent military observers, the U.S. didn’t just send a quick SAR team. They lost an astonishing 12 or more aircraft in roughly 48 hours.

For context, a standard search-and-rescue mission for an downed aviator doesn’t look like this. The reported losses over two days, (destroyed or damaged), include:

2 C-130s: Specifically, the MC-130J “Commando II” spec-ops transport planes, configured for covert operations. Destroyed

2 A-10s, Ground Attack role, one which crashed into the Strait of Hormuz, (hunting down Iranian fast attack boats).

4 MH-6 Little Birds: Tiny, incredibly agile but heavily armed special ops helicopters. Destroyed

4 Black Hawks: The workhorses of U.S. special operations. Destroyed / damaged.

2 MQ-9 Drones: High-end U.S. surveillance and strike drones. Downed.

1 F-15 Multi-role combat jet. Downed.

Additionally: One or possibly 2 Chinese-made Wing Loong drones (likely operating in a coalition or allied capacity).

To put it plainly, you don’t need all of this top-end, specialised equipment, to pull a pilot out a mountainous hiding place.

The Real Mission: Seizing uranium

So, what were they actually doing? Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson recently appeared on the MOATS show and confirmed what many suspect: the Pentagon is lying to the public. The downed F-15 wasn’t just flying a patrol; it was preparing to pave the way for a massive ground attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

But the rescue mission had an even wilder objective. According to Anthony Aguilar, an ex-special forces officer, deeply familiar with special operations, this wasn’t just a strike mission. It was a joint Delta Force, JSOC, and SEAL Team 6 operation designed to seize Iran’s stored uranium.

If you think the idea of a spec-ops team snatching Iranian uranium sounds like a  delusional theory, think again. Even before the details of this botched operation were made public, this exact scenario was already doing the rounds in the media.

Al Jazeera published an analysis earlier last week,  outlining whether the U.S. could actually seize Iran’s enriched uranium. The reporter noted that Trump had publicly floated the idea, (consequently the Iranians were well aware of such intentions). The article highlighted that an actual military operation would be an incredibly complicated and extremely risky.

That Al Jazeera report laid out the exact hurdles that apparently doomed the Isfahan operation from the start. As the analysis pointed out, Iran’s nuclear material isn’t sitting in a single, easily accessible vault; it is heavily fortified and dispersed across multiple secure sites. Experts warned that extracting it would require a massive, sustained ground presence, not just a quick special forces Caracas style snatch and grab raid.

Col. Aguilar mentioned in his analysis a “fast” FARP, (Forward Arming and Refuelling Point), which is a temporary base set up in hostile territory. Trying to build one on an abandoned airstrip deep in Iran without securing the airspace first is folly. Furthermore, the logistics of safely transporting highly radioactive material out of a country while under sustained fire were described as a logistical nightmare, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the region. Despite these glaring, publicly debated red flags, the Pentagon apparently decided to ignore the experts and try it anyway.

We are seeing a troubling pattern where political agendas completely override actual expertise. Look at the recent Geneva nuclear talks: Trump sent Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate Iran’s nuclear program without bringing a single actual nuclear expert to the table. Now, we’re seeing that same flippancy applied to actual warfare, with military operations seemingly planned on the fly by ‘yes-men’ who refuse to push back against seriously bad ideas.

Is it any coincidence that this disaster happened right after the shocking sacking of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George last week? His abrupt removal, set against the broader background of the administration purging a dozen top-ranking military officials, paints a clear picture:  replacement of seasoned commanders with people who just nod along to delusions of grandeur. Consequently, there’s no deescalation to the conflict, soldiers continue to die and millions of dollars in equipment burn.

“Stop Snorting Cocaine”: The French general’s reaction

But don’t just take Anthony Aguilar’s word for how absurd this plan was.  Even before the details of this botched operations, were made public, the concept that this type of operation could be considered workable, was discussed on French TV.

The sheer delusion of the proposed operation left a top-level ex-French general practically speechless. Enter General Michel Yakovleff, a highly respected former NATO high-ranker. When asked about the reported U.S. plan to build a temporary runway inside Iran to fly out stolen uranium while an active bombing campaign was going on, Yakovleff didn’t mince words.

His response to American planners? “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.”

He wasn’t finished.  General Yakovleff compared the operation to the disastrous 1954 Battle of Dien Bien Phu, where French forces parachuted into a remote valley in Vietnam, tried to build an airstrip, and were completely surrounded and annihilated by enemy artillery.

” But, I wonder… It’s become so ‘wow!’ We are beyond science fiction. To take, to set up an airstrip. It’s Dien Bien Phu, if you want,” Yakovleff said. “The French have done it too. Do you want a Dien Bien Phu? Go ahead. Enjoy.”

When a French general has to remind the U.S. military about the fatal flaws of the French military’s worst defeat, you know things have gone totally off the rails.

Here’s what else he had to say about such an operation:

“In addition to that, it’s to go and look for barrels that were buried following the bombing,” he continued, referring to the uranium stock. “I mean, the bombings probably made the galleries collapse, etc. In other words, even the Iranians, if they want to go and look for them, they need mass engineering.”

“They need builders. They need to excavate the tunnels. They need to look for where the tunnels were before they collapsed to go and look for the stuff,” he added. “So guys, even the Iranians, in peacetime, will take weeks or months to do this kind of excavation. So we don’t see the Americans doing it. We’re going to do it anyway. We’re going to do it? Have fun, guys!

Hubris and history: Echoes of 1980

The background to this operation is almost surreal. Just two days before the F-15 was shot down,  President Trump was publicly bragging that Iran has “no anti-aircraft equipment” and that their radar was “100% annihilated.”

Shooting down an F-15 and ending up with a dozen spec-ops aircraft damaged or destroyed, suggests Iran’s air defences are active and do work. Part of the Pentagon’s delusion is a rigid, almost arrogant belief in its own technological superiority. They often plan for enemies that fight like it’s1991 Iraq.

It is becoming clearer that Washington has completely failed to account for Iranian adaptability, (geopolitically and militarily).  Take for instance, a recent analysis by Wana EN which highlights that Iran hasn’t just been sitting idle under decades of sanctions; they’ve been forced to become fiercely resourceful technologically, (with a little bit of outside help on side of late).

Iranian military expert Elhami pointed out that bringing down a U.S. fighter jet wasn’t a fluke, as it was achieved using entirely indigenous, homegrown air defence systems, in part, a last minute system very recently set up. The U.S. military assumed Iran was blind because they made assumptions based on doctrine, that considered imported Russian radar networks, that the Pentagon knows how to jam. They seem to have completely dismissed out of hand the fact that Iran had engineered its own bespoke, unconventional albeit scattered multi-layered air defence capabilities. One such mobile system was recently capable of successfully intercepting a fifth-generation U.S. F-35 jet.

Likewise, you can’t adequately plan a special-ops operation if your own intelligence can’t credibly take into account what the adversary is truly capable of, or factor in the systems built in their own backyard.

And if the Dien Bien Phu comparison wasn’t bad enough, this operation also eerily echoes the U.S.’s military disaster in 1980. Back then, the U.S. attempted ‘Operation Eagle Claw’ to rescue the American hostages in Tehran. It ended in a deadly and humiliating failure at a desert site called Tabas. A special forces operation also destroyed by sheer American hubris and very mediocre planning.

Just like in 1980, the U.S. reportedly bombed its own stricken aircraft on the ground in Iran this week to cover up the extent of the disaster. The Pentagon clearly hasn’t even bothered to open the lesson files from Tabas, if there are any.

NB: The site was geolocated to near to the Kolah Ghazi National Park area, south-east of Isfahan, which is nowhere near to where the F-15 pilot was reported to have been.  Initially, one aircraft was reported to have been stuck, yet the images of the airstrip don’t indicate any mud or big stones. C-130 Hercules have a sold reputation of landing and taking off in gravel, snow, so this is a feeble excuse.  Another report stated that it was mechanical failure. This doesn’t explain why four helicopters were abandoned, (ABC News).

Analysis & Insights: What This All Means

For those of us trying to make sense of the stream of information on Iran and the Persian Gulf, here is a rough breakdown of what this operation tells us about the current state of U.S. military readiness and strategy.

1. Tactically: A Disaster 

Setting up a FARP, hundred of kilometres inside hostile territory, while expecting to fly out tons of stolen uranium barrels, isn’t military malpractice, it is military madness. As  General Yakovleff noted, it made the aircraft sitting ducks for any artillery, truck-mounted rockets units and also mobile air defences.

Underestimating the adversary: The operation assumed Iranian radar and anti-aircraft systems were blind or destroyed. The loss of the F-15 and multiple multi-million drones proves that assumption was dead wrong.

 2. Operational Analysis: Strategy vs. Reality

Mission Creep: What likely started as an ambitious plan to knock out Natanz, morphed into a plan to steal uranium. This resulted in a hastily planned special operations to set up a base, based on an ongoing pilot rescue operation, resulting in a total mess when things went sideways.

The Largest Air Force Grouping Since Iraq: Reports indicate this is the largest concentration of U.S. airpower since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Yet, a small highly specialised part of it achieved nothing but the waste and loss of billions of dollars in equipment, resources and likely lives.

 3. Strategic Analysis: The Geopolitical Fallout

The Credibility Gap: The Pentagon’s attempt to pass this off as a “pilot rescue”  is going to destroy public trust, which is already threadbare, (6 in 10 U.S. residents don’t support the war). Once the grim reality of the situation becomes undeniable, the fallout won’t just be domestic. There will be a backlash from so-called allies, who will undoubtedly put more distance between themselves and Washington, becoming deeply wary of signing up for any future U.S. military adventures.

 4. Political Analysis: Reckless Adventurism

Delusions of Grandeur: This operation is emblematic of a mentality driven by layers of political ego and hubris rather than military reality. Bragging about “annihilating” air defence radar one day, and losing around dozen aircraft the next, shows a dangerous disconnect between political rhetoric and ground-truth.

The “Throw it at the Wall” Mentality: Hastily throwing elite Special Forces into a quagmire based on biased and flawed intelligence is a hallmark of reckless adventurism, (which ought to be core U.S. military values by now). It clearly shows that the world’s so-called most elite soldiers as disposable political pawns.

Summary

The Pentagon seemingly turned the President’s off-the-cuff remarks into a full-fledged special operations mission. The ‘rescue’ was nothing more than a cover story to insert these elite forces onto an abandoned airstrip in southern Isfahan,  relatively close to where that uranium is suspected to be stored. They were trying to build a forward operating base on the fly. It failed spectacularly.

(Note for readers: You can view the interview with former CIA officer Larry Johnson discussing these claims on the MOATS YouTube channel here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_hSHn-ulJD8)

(Additional Reading: Al Jazeera’s prior analysis on the risks of a uranium seizure operation can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/can-the-us-seize-irans-enriched-uranium-and-what-are-the-risks

https://wanaen.com/capability-to-intercept-u-s-fifth-generation-fighter-jets-with-indigenous-iranian-systems/)

Here some text from Colonel Anthony Aguilar, someone extremely knowledgeable and familiar with special forces operations:

MC-130J, Commando II, operated by the U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command for clandestine operations. The MC-130J uses six-bladed Dowty R391 composite propellers (see picture #1). These blades are constructed from composite materials, specifically featuring a carbon fiber structure rather than the metal (aluminum) used on older C-130 models. (The wreckage show that the aircraft was not shot down, nor crash landed, and the propellers do indicate burning and melting, not a crash).

The rescue operation expanded to become the desired Delta Force, JSOC, SOF, ST-6 high-risk operation to ALSO seize the uranium in Iran; hence the need for so many operators, support, aircraft, etc. This WAS intended to be that operation. It failed. So what happened to the aircraft. I do not believe that they were “stuck”. I have seen MC-130Js plow through dirt, mud, snow, gravel, etc. I doubt they were stuck. It is more likely that the aircraft took hits upon entry and also likely took hits and damage while on the ground at the hasty FARP at the old airfield in Isfahan, “conveniently” close to where the suspected uranium may have been stored.

Lesson: A ground war into Iran will be very costly and will be a tactical, operational, and strategic failure (Clausewitz).