Assessment of the first day of the “Justice Mission – 2025” exercises
This is written by a Russian analyst specializing in the overall PLA and translated via Telegram. The Chinese PLA released a tremendous amount of information today. http://eng.mod.gov.cn/2025xb/N/T/index.html
This information looks like a summary of the PLA releases. This is a considerable exercise, and simply browsing through will give you an idea. After this first day, Taiwan is comprehensively blockaded, with subsequent coercion to surrender, without the need for an immediate large-scale amphibious operation. Thus, the PLA has worked out a scenario of isolating Taiwan from the outside world, including energy supplies, logistics, and military assistance.
The PLA spokesperson released a stern warning:
The People’s Liberation Army drills around Taiwan that began on Monday are a stern warning to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference, and a justified and necessary move to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, a defense spokesman said on Monday evening.
Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, made the remarks in response to media analysis suggesting the drills were aimed at recent large-scale United States arms sales to Taiwan.
Zhang said external forces have repeatedly crossed red lines on the Taiwan question, seeking to embolden “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, intensifying cross-Strait confrontation, undermining China’s sovereignty and security, and damaging peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
He said the authorities led by Lai Ching-te in Taiwan have “no bottom line,” accusing them of pandering to and relying on external forces while recklessly pursuing provocations aimed at “independence,” which Zhang described as the root cause of undermining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and escalating tensions.
“‘Taiwan independence’ is incompatible with peace across the Strait,” Zhang said, adding that external forces’ tolerance and support for separatist activities would backfire and bring consequences upon themselves.
He urged relevant countries to abandon what he called the fantasy of using Taiwan to contain China, to stop “fanning flames and stirring up trouble” on the Taiwan question, and to stop challenging China’s resolve to safeguard its core interests.
Zhang also warned Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party authorities that seeking “independence” by relying on external forces is doomed to fail and that resisting reunification through military means is a dead end.
The PLA will show no mercy in combating “independence” and advancing reunification, Zhang said, adding that it will continue to organize actions against separatism and external interference and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity.
🔻 The large-scale maneuvers conducted by the PLA around the island of Taiwan are of a pronounced operational-strategic character and are aimed at working out a scenario of a forceful resolution of the Taiwan issue in the worst-case scenario of the situation’s development.
The essence of the exercise plan can be briefly formulated as follows: blocking external assistance – complete isolation of the island – destroying the enemy in an isolated space.
The exercises demonstrate the PLA’s readiness not for a point military pressure, but for a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan with subsequent coercion to surrender without the need for an immediate large-scale amphibious operation.
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📌 Geography of the exercises and its operational significance
The Eastern Command of the PLA announced the conduct of exercises in five areas: the Taiwan Strait, areas to the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan.
In fact, all sea and air routes of entry and exit from the island are blocked.
A model of complete sea and air blockade has been created. All key ports/naval bases of Taiwan have been taken under control: Zilong, Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Zhongxin (Kaohsiung).
Blocking the island to the north allows excluding the potential intervention of Japan. The eastern, southeastern, and southwestern directions block the routes of possible US intervention.
Thus, the PLA has worked out a scenario of isolating Taiwan from the outside world, including energy supplies, logistics, and military assistance.
📌 Analysis of the four main training tasks
🔴Maritime and air combat patrol
Goals: ensuring the readiness for constant combat duty around the island; reducing the time of transition from peacetime to wartime; putting pressure on the enemy through the continuous presence of forces.
The PLA is actually demonstrating its readiness for a long-term blockade, not a one-time act of intimidation.
🔴Seizing superiority
It’s not just about dominance in the air, on the sea, and on land, but also in the electromagnetic environment, information space, and cyberspace.
Goals: paralyzing the enemy’s command (command systems), reconnaissance, and communication systems; destroying the integrity of Taiwan’s defense system even before the active phase of hostilities, including the destruction of naval and air bases where important targets such as submarines, ships, and fighters are concentrated.
The PLA has essentially worked out a model of asymmetric suppression, where the physical destruction of troops is secondary to destroying the command system.
🔴Blockade of ports and important areas
The main element of the exercises.
Goals: complete blocking of external supplies, primarily: fuel, energy resources, ammunition, food; depriving the Taiwan leadership of the possibility of evacuation or maneuver; creating conditions of a “closed pot”.
The PLA is demonstrating its readiness to suffocate Taiwan without the need to invade, putting the island’s leadership and armed forces in a hopeless situation.
🔴External deterrence
In fact, it’s a model of A2/AD by creating zones that are dangerous or inaccessible for the US and its allies. A signal to the US that intervention by third parties will entail unacceptable risks and losses.
📌 Political and military signal of the exercises
The exercises are primarily addressed to the puppet regime of the island, for its continued flirting with America. A demonstration that in the event of a crisis: escape is impossible, external assistance will be cut off, resistance will only accelerate defeat. Secondly, a signal to the US and its allies that: the response time will be minimal, the routes for the approach of enemy forces are preemptively blocked, and military intervention does not guarantee success.