Maduro mobilizes troops as Venezuela confronts US threats
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro deployed 15,000 troops to the Colombian border, vowing unity and resistance as US warships and threats of intervention escalated tensions.
The decision on Tuesday follows the provocative dispatch of at least three US warships carrying more than 4,000 Marines and sailors into Caribbean waters under the pretext of combating drug cartels.
In a televised address, Maduro made clear that Venezuela would not bow to foreign pressure, declaring that the country’s greatest strength lies in the collective will of its people and institutions: “a key element of national strength is the unity of the people, the army and the police.”
Alongside the troops, the government has activated drones, boats, aircraft and expanded the Bolivarian Militia, with 4.5 million members now mobilized in defense of national sovereignty.
The US campaign has increasingly targeted Venezuela under the banner of “counternarcotics.”
Notes about the region:
So far, there is no sign of US warships on their way in the Caribbean Basin or on the West Coast. They may be there, but nobody is reporting on this small flotilla in the region. It is high hurricane season and every human being in the region has their weather tools on their phones. Nothing that happens in the air or in these waters escape notice. So far, we may think of Schrodinger’s flotilla.
Reportedly, this flotilla has 20,000 or 40,000 marines. Venezuela is hardened, and for once, I believe Scott Ritter when he says (talking to the Judge) that this number of marines cannot take Venezuela.
We have to bear in mind what happened in the Panama Canal when the Trump administration wanted it back. There were US troops in a form of power projection, yet they did not take the Panama Canal, and China still possesses its infrastructure for marine traffic through the Canal.
It may be that these threats are simply a power projection again, from the US. Bear in mind that they have not taken Greenland yet, and yesterday, with Trump’s meeting with the South Korean leader, Trump asked if South Korea would please give them the land where the US base is.
It is, however, early days and we do not know if this fleet or flotilla is really on its way to take Venezuela, or missile Venezuela, or in some form, even kidnap or cancel Maduro.
On the drug cartel front, Maduro was suddenly portrayed as the biggest cartel boss ever. Yet Colombian President Gustavo Petro says the Cartel del Sol doesn’t exist, calling it a “fictitious excuse of the extreme right” used to topple uncooperative governments.
And if the US is so adamant about its existence?“Let’s destroy it together, the U.S., Venezuela, and Colombia.” He claims the real cocaine controllers are “a drug board” with capos “living in Europe and the Middle East.”
The region declared itself a Zone of Peace. The Prime Minister of Barbados and well-respected in the region, Mia Mottley, stated: “We need to give the world that very example at the time when the world needs it more than ever in this madness of geopolitical strife, in this madness of conflict in almost every area,” she stated.
It is against that backdrop that we hope that the gathering of ships in the southern Caribbean will not mean that this is a foreteller of conflict in this region,” PM Mottley observed, “because we are adamant about one thing across all Caribbean states—that the Caribbean must remain a zone of peace, having been a theatre of conflict and iniquity for far too long.”
Venezuela organized itself into a number of Zones, and they call them Peace Zones. These zones are protected by the citizen army that Maduro called up, and these people will fight. They do not want to, but they will. Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico, made a short comment: ‘Our sons are now all soldiers’. Not all countries will fight as many are US-centric and thoroughly inculcated with the US military.
It is a difficult time for the region, having declared itself as a Zone of Peace and now being threatened by the US with a small armada of war vessels.
A reminder of the short war US/Zionists against Iran: Russia and Iran have a treaty, and at the time, there were many discussions of what precisely the treaty contains and if Russia will assist Iran in any other way but with weaponry. We saw that Iran was supported by both Russia and China with weapons at the end of the war. But neither of the two entered into the war. Commentators concluded that Iran did not ask Russia for kinetic help, and this was supported by Russian professional commentary. The conclusion was also that Iran was proud and wanted to win the war itself. It did work out that way, although it is not over, and personally, I expect another attack on Iran.
There is now a considerable discussion that Russia will supply Venezuela with Oreshniks. Let us apply this discussion to what we know of Venezuela. Venezuela is proud, and for commentators to insist that Russia will supply Oreshniks, without a Venezuelan voice, without Venezuela asking, and without a similar treaty as with Iran, in my view, is Russian exceptionalism and utterly disrespectful to the Latin American region and its stated values. So far, I do not see any Oreshniks in Iran, and my personal expectation is that the next deployment will most probably be in the DPRK, but I may be wrong. There is no proof of Russia supplying Venezuela with Oreshniks; we don’t know if an Oreshnik is the correct weaponry for Venezuela, and they do have Iranian missiles with the infrastructure to fire them. Oreshnik is a system, and if we are attentive to the experience of Belarus, it is quite an infrastructure development to deploy these weapons. I expect that if anyone helps, it will be Iran, and it will be with weapons/missile delivery.
A further comment on the region: While Russia is, of course, wildly popular, China is more popular. It has to do with the way China conducts its affairs and the socialist thread throughout the China/LAC values. It also rests on China’s Belt and Road, the Chancay Port in Peru, the Mexican Port of Manzanillo, and the significant LAC/China business. After suffering for many years from the disrespect of the US, the interaction with and respect from China is welcomed.
I do not expect Oreshniks in Venezuela in the short term. This is not to say Russia won’t assist: We don’t know how. And China is a question mark, as China does not supply weapons to war zones.
There is no analysis that I can bring to the table that has any validity that, in the short term, Russia will supply Oreshniks to Venezuela. If you want Venezuela to lose all support in the region, they will lose all support if serious offensive weapons are staged. Countries do not want to become targets. This statement is valid currently, and while we are not in a world war. Oh, a 3rd WW exists, but in the LAC, there is no shooting.
My remaining questions are:
-Is there an armada of US war vessels on the way? Today, there is nothing. Tomorrow is another day.
-Is this threat from the US simply a power projection? I don’t know, but I will leave that possibility open, given what we’ve seen from Brazil, Mexico, the Panama Canal Caper, and now Venezuela.
-Is Venezuela this little country that can be kicked in the teeth? I believe that they will give as good as they get, but that remains to be seen. My view, however, is that the US will be dealing with the 2nd iteration of AnsarAllah or the Houthis.
-Have the values of the region changed in terms of the Monroe Doctrine? Absolutely yes, because these countries have developed, and there is a clear possibility now that they can protect themselves, and with China at their backs, they can continue trading. The probability of being threatened with sanctions or food scarcity or other threats is much smaller than say 5 years ago.
It is, however, becoming a question of conscience in the region. They do not want war, but they have to face the possibility that it may come to them. We have not heard a word on this issue from Brazil. These days, Brazil and Mexico are having trade talks, and there is a focus on changing supply lines away from the US. I have put a question out to friendly journalists in the region to try to understand why LULA is so anti-Venezuelan. It may be the issue of the 2,000 km border between Venezuela and Brazil, and he may just be covering for Venezuelan migrants. Let’s see what we get.
So far so good! Have a little respect, Russians! The answer to an armada of 3 or 4 ships coming across the ocean is not by definition Oreshnik. Let me know how many warships the Oreshnik has sunk. Its time will come. For now, and we are dealing with a short-term, event-driven set of circumstances, please ask a knowledgeable Venezuelan first, before you pronounce your solution for a region that you actually do not know. I thought we were building a multipolarity here? Get with the program, buddies!