Donnie needs a win: So he rescues Netanyahu

Today, the pressure on Iran seems to have lessened. There is a reason or more than one.

Let’s step back to yesterday, when the airwaves suddenly exploded with notifications of US evacuations of non-essential employees and family members from various embassies and air bases across West Asia. From Kuwait, these notifications poured in right across the region. Initially, we thought this was putting pressure on the next round of Iran-US negotiations, slated for Sunday. Then, a notification was issued stating that no talks would take place. The Iranian FM was in Europe, and the Army Chief in the East. This was only one list of observations that I posted on the Apocalypse thread in the Hearty Salon:

The US’ Middle East commander has canceled testimony in Washington tomorrow.
Reuters says it’s due to ‘tensions’ in the region. OK …

In addition:

Two US Air Force tanker aircraft went dark over the Middle East shortly after takeoff. A KC-46A Pegasus departed Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and turned off its transponder minutes later. Five minutes after, a KC-135T Stratotanker took off from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and also switched off its transponder.

In addition:

The parties of the Israeli Knesset have mutually agreed to postpone the vote on dissolving the Knesset until next week.

In addition:

US ambassador to the occupied territories, Mike Huckabee, announced that Washington no longer supports an independent Palestinian state, suggesting it could instead be created elsewhere in West Asia.

In addition:

Egyptian security forces are detaining dozens of Tunisians, French, and Algerians at Cairo Airport for their participation in the “Solidarity Convoy” headed to Gaza.

Egyptian police stormed Downtown Hotel and another hotel in central Cairo, where members of the French delegation were staying, before contact with them was lost.

There was a convergence of these issues:

-Iran warns it will react ‘strongly’ to potential ‘strategic mistake’ by E3 .. They want to reinstate the ‘snap-back’ mechanism, which has been dormant since 2015.
Iran’s foreign minister issued a stern warning to the three European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, commonly known as the E3, accusing them of failure to fulfill their obligations and cautioning against further “strategic mistakes.”   The European parties to the JCPOA are in no legal or moral position to activate the 2015 nuclear deal’s so-called snapback mechanism, considering their non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, according to the Iranian envoy to the IAEA.

-The vote to dissolve the Knesset was postponed for a week.  Netanyahu was expected to lose the vote, and the Knesset would be dissolved. The US worked very hard to try and contain this. US ambassador to the occupied territories, Mike Huckabee, announced that Washington no longer supports an independent Palestinian state, suggesting it could instead be created elsewhere in West Asia.

-There was a feeling that Iran is talking big about what they found in the documents that they grabbed from Israel. There is a push to hold them accountable for their talk.

-Israel is seemingly in a state of economic collapse.

-Brent Crude started spiking.

What happened next was epic, but who won?  Fast Forward …

The US Ambassador to Israel twisted arms, made some threats and late last night, the vote to dissolve the Knesset did not work.  Netanyahu is still in there.

The IAEA condemned Iran, accusing Tehran of non-compliance with the safeguards agreement, which is complete nonsense.   This was their first condemnation in 20 years.  So while Huckabee was twisting arms and surely spreading bags of goodwill in Israel, the E3 was furiously drafting a condemnation, the IAEA board of governors adopted this anti-Iran resolution and accused Iran of non-compliance with nuclear safeguards obligations (This is meaningless in the big scheme of things and serves only as propaganda).

Then we heard that Egyptian authorities stormed two hotels in Cairo, after which dozens of activists on the Resilience Convoy were arrested, interrogated, and held against their wills pending deportation.  This tactic of arresting righteous people who are answering Gaza’s cries to the free people of the world, and deporting them before they can deliver their aid, is heinous.  For its part, the Egyptian government issued a statement asking those who arrive as part of the Resilience Convoy to go through “proper channels” and obtain approval to head to the Rafah border crossing. No such permission has been granted then or now.

Somewhere during this time, Pepe Escobar stated that they are still in Moscow, observing with trepidation.  Larry Johnson landed in Dubai at midnight and walked into this development.  He stated, “Donald Trump apparently has decided to attack Iran. Mark this date. It is the beginning of the end of the Trump Presidency. Trump has been persuaded that the Iranian air defense is weak and that a US bombing run will eliminate any chance that Iran can build a nuclear device. He has been a victim of lies. He will shortly discover, if these attacks take place, that Iran retains a significant capability to shoot down US aircraft. I fully expect Iran will capture and put on display several US Air Force officers in the next week.”

This comment remains valid, although the pressure was somewhat alleviated by Trump’s actions today.

And so we arrive at today … 

A few pieces fell in place for Donnie and the Bibi during this lightning-quick raid.

The Orange Don is out there in front of his adoring press corps saying that he wants to make a deal with Iran, and Sunday, they will talk again, and Iran must do what he wants them to do.  He is also threatening, and saying he told Bibi to hold off as he, Donnie thinks the negotiations will be successful.  “Iran is gonna have to negotiate a ‘little bit TOUGHER’ – Trump.  The Don says ‘they’re gonna have to give us some things that they’re not willing to give us’, and Israeli attack on Iran ‘could very well happen’.  (Pumping up the volume).

At this time, I’ll call in my dictum on the Evolving Strategy of Empire.  File this under:  “The pattern has changed toward attempts to use dwindling economic rights as a wedge for military insertion to expand the hegemonic stake.”

What do you think the US wants?

So Donny bought a little time for Netanyahu. This is a short-term win for Donnie and Netanyahu, as the Israelis (all gung-ho on deleting Gaza and the Palestinians) are sick of Netanyahu.  The US went into overdrive and ran a costly operation to save Bibi.

There is the case of Iran obtaining thousands of sensitive documents on Israel’s nuclear program through an intelligence operation that reveals direct cooperation between Tel Aviv and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, against Iran.  Oh, the fear!  Let’s stop those documents being published come hell or high water.    Iran stated that they not only are in possession of Israel’s whole nuclear infrastructure, but they also have those who, through the years, have killed the Iranian engineers.  Iran immediately began publishing this, as promised.  Some will be made pubic, some will go to their friends.  Surely we don’t have the whole picture yet.  But Donnie feels good as Netanyahu is safe for a little while.

In an interview for #AlMayadeen, Tehran University Professor Mohammad Marandi described the leaked documents exposing IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi’s covert coordination with “Israel” as just a “first small taste” of what’s to come. Marandi said the documents confirmed long-held Iranian suspicions that the #IAEA has acted as a channel for passing sensitive information to Israeli and Western intelligence. “This is basically just the first small taste,” he warned, adding that more files will be made public in the coming weeks, while others are reserved for military and intelligence use.

What do you think the US wants?    

Iran has made a number of statements, but said again:  Iran’s uranium enrichment is key to energy sovereignty, economic growth, and scientific progress, enabling nuclear fuel production, clean energy production, and supporting medical and agricultural applications.  We will not curtail our enrichment operation, and in fact, we’ve just built another enrichment facility, which we will equip with the most modern equipment.

Iran is also conducting real military exercises, simulating a counterattack against an enemy.

I’ve not yet seen a confirmation that Iran will attend the on-again, off-again negotiations slated for Sunday.

So what does the US want? 

We see the same process in Latin America.  They threaten and then want to muscle in on the resources of others.  Of course, they want to share in the profits of Iran’s nuclear enrichment.  Remember, just two or so weeks ago, the idea was mooted that Iran could enrich in a consortium (US, Europe), and they could even do it on their own lands.    That is what Trump is after.  He also wants to own the Middle East or West Asia.  There is no need to justify these statements.  He did this in Ukraine with the minerals and mining deal, and promised to insert the US between Ukraine and Russia.  He is doing this in Latin America from the bottom up, mentioning, as a start, Brazil, which has already offered to share the riches of the rainforest, Venezuela’s oil, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico.  He wants Gaza, yes, for the beach front, but also for that rich oilfield just off the coast.  Bibi is saved because Bibi is offering the Golan Heights, as well as a sweetener of Syria and Lebanon.  Donnie wants the world.  He may share a little bit of Russia with Russia and he may decide to share a little of China with China.  What a magnanimous King.

So who won? 

• Nobody yet.  The US and Israel and Europe will not obtain concessions from Iran.  They will then be in the same position, to attack or not.
• They cannot stop the publication of the intelligence cache from Iran.
• The world’s people will continue standing up for Gaza, no matter what traitors like Egypt do.
• Netanyahu has a small respite.  His people will not forgive him for sacrificing the Israeli captives for his own safety.
• The Yemenis will continue attacking Israel.
• The US and European security alerts and orders to evacuate stand.
• Israel is warning: – Maritime Security Alert  According to a classified Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory obtained via open-source intel:  Israel has issued an ultimatum to both the U.S. and Iran: A nuclear deal must be reached by Sunday, or Israel may initiate military action against Iran.The advisory warns:
  • Diplomatic talks have stalled
  • Rhetoric and tensions are escalating
  • Risk of conflict spilling into the maritime domain (Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Sea)
  • Threats from regional actors like the Houthis increase risk of wider warArea of Concern: Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Northern Arabian Sea
  Threat Level: Elevated (400 dollar oil?)A short “operational pause” is in effect to allow diplomacy—until Sunday.
• (What did Bart Simpson say?  Eat My Shorts! This looks like release 001 of something that I don’t know where it comes from.)

So who won?  The battle is yet to come.