Negotiations on Ukraine: Different Objectives

All roads lead to Riyadh for different purposes.

The US MSM is feverishly reporting on who goes where. Witkoff and Waltz flew out from the US last evening, and Marco Rubio is already there. In a quick presser before leaving, Witkoff said that “the beginning is trust building.” He also said that everybody would be included—Zelensky, Europe, and everybody else.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/139089

In the meantime, Macron has set up a very quick summit of European leaders for today, wailing bitterly because they are not the star of the show and are excluded. “The European Union must take part in the negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and make sure that nobody agrees to Ukraine’s demilitarization, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during an election debate. ”

As with everything, follow the money. Should these negotiations (the real ones) bear fruit, there will be issues of war reparations.

Mr Lavrov however, is on the way as well, with a presidential aide. Dmitry Peskov explained this issue.

Peskov on the beginning of Russian-American negotiations in Saudi Arabia:

➡️ Today, Foreign Minister Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov are flying to Riyadh on behalf of President Putin. They are expected to hold a meeting with their American counterparts in Riyadh on Tuesday, which will be devoted primarily to restoring the entire range of Russian-American relations.

➡️It will also be devoted to the preparation of possible negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement and the organization of a meeting between the two presidents.

➡️ First of all, the contacts that will take place on Tuesday will be about restoring the entire complex of Russian-American relations and about preparing possible negotiations on Ukraine. As for Kirill Dmitriev, there are no comments here. I said that Lavrov and Ushakov are flying out on the president’s instructions.

➡️ Of course, the full report [from Lavrov and Ushakov to Putin] will be in Moscow, but if any urgent reports are required, all the communication capabilities for this are available.

➡️ President Trump mentioned Saudi Arabia when they talked about a possible location for a possible summit. Based on the understanding that this location generally suits both the American and Russian sides, a joint decision was made.

• The US contingent is going to discuss a peace agreement for Ukraine.
• Russia, on the other hand, after fundamental state-to-state relations are restored (you may remember that Russian embassies and consulates in the US were simply taken over and closed by the US administration after the SMO started), is going to discuss security specifically indivisible security, which means a material change to the European security complex and a lasting peace with security guarantees from hell, the issue on NATO and we are not sure if Russia is going to demand that NATO moves back to its original borders, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and possibly a Ukraine breakup. There are also missile complexes in Europe, a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Russian voices continually confirm that the root causes of this conflict must be dealt with.

These goals are irreconcilable. The US team in the room has never conducted such material, serious, and complex negotiations on a world stage. They lack experience and perhaps competence. When the Russian team is formally announced, they will have been carefully selected.

Judging by the press conferences and utterings from the US contingent, I cannot find anything that tells me they have an idea of what is coming. There is much talk and playing it up for the press from the US contingent, but I see no comment on substantive issues. I also see no recognition that Russia will make the terms here because they won this war. The winners dictate terms, not the losers.  The US has no leverage over Russia at this time.

Economy Minister Yulia Svirydenko from Ukraine announced on Sunday that a Ukrainian government delegation had arrived in the kingdom. “There will be dozens of meetings in the coming days to prepare Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to Saudi Arabia,” she stated. Svirydenko added that the delegation aims to strengthen economic ties and lay the groundwork “to sign important economic agreements with countries in the region.” Anything from Ukraine is to be ignored on principle.

Unfortunately, we also have to remember recent Russian history.  Russia has been taken to the cleaners and cheated badly in any peace negotiations on Ukraine in the past. Just very recently Russia had to cave on Syria without any other options. I cannot see Russia being kind and willing to horsetrade. The Russian requirements for peace have been stated so many times by Mr Putin, Mr Lavrov, and other diplomats that I see no wiggle room for Russia in terms of the Russian population, except to take the issues by the horns and push on through. The US will never allow what Russia requires, and if they do, they will break agreements minutes after. With the advent of the Trump administration, the fundamental continuity of US Policy and Government has not changed.

I have not seen a formal and reliable announcement of Russia’s negotiators. Press reports, yes, but as always, I like to wait for the formal announcement. The Russian team will reportedly (US press) include Yuriy Ushakov, longtime foreign policy aide and former Russian ambassador to the U.S.; Sergey Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR); and Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.

These negotiations will consume our attention for at least the next week and perhaps much longer. In the meantime, Trump stated that he had told Bibi Netanyahu to do what he wanted to do in the region. I cannot accept his supposed care for ‘all the young men and soldiers’ being killed in the Ukraine, but not a word about civilians and children and a complete society being killed in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.

Mr Lavrov said just minutes ago: A Russian team will hold talks with the US in Saudi Arabia primarily to find out what the administration of US President Donald Trump is proposing to settle the Ukraine conflict. Besides the conflicting goals of the teams, it seems Mr. Lavrov does not think that a set of negotiations is in the bag.  He stated:  There can be no talk of the possibility of territorial concessions to Ukraine in the process of peaceful settlement.  Lavrov said Europe has no place in Ukraine peace talks.  Mr Lavrov shapes the negotiation space before he arrives with only one aide while a full negotiating team awaits. What a vision!  The SMO continues without mercy.