A quick resonse on ‘BRICS is dead’, Reciprocal Tariffs, ‘Putin should join the G7’, Nuclear weapons reduction

Mr Trump drops the bombshell that BRICS is dead, moments before a bilateral summit with Mr Modi.

Presidents Trump and Putin DOMINATE Friday’s newspaper front pages across Europe.  Please see the original image here as it is too big to post:  https://t.me/rtnews/82167

The new daily Trump episode where he owns the screens of the world and reporters have an easy task as they write down what Trump says, file it, and go home. It is not so simple but there is a visual barrier and specifically a noise barrier to overcome and get to anything really substantive. The objective of this short piece is then to look at first reactions to Trump’s dud bombs underneath the visual and noise barrier given what we understand up to now, 14 or so hours afterward.

Reciprocal Tariffs – an economist or magician must make it make sense because, in a very basic form, it makes no sense. It looks like a big top game, where you draw a card for a prize. You tariff me 5%, I tariff you 5%, we figure in some taxes like VAT, we increase consumer prices in our countries, and Bob’s your uncle. Flourishes and bows. US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent explained Trump’s reciprocal tariffs: ‘If you have a tariff, we’re going to put in the same level. If you take it to zero, we’ll take it to zero’. (Too many immediate questions. If it is not a similar product or you don’t have it, Mr Bessent? and we’re talking about those rare minerals, for example, where reciprocity is not possible?) This is not even a quarter thought through and makes one ask: What?  https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202502/1328423.shtml

This is not the reality of this little bit of coercion. Underneath this is the pressure that all business must henceforth be done in the US. Bring your manufacturing to the US and pay no tariffs at all. We’re going to do significant steel manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing plants as big as Texas. (OK, overstating there!) For example, white and educated South Africans have an opportunity to move to the US as refugees. Indians? We want the brightest of them. I have never seen or imagined such a full-spectrum raid all across the world.  (Hold on to your lacy things girls! ).

Putin should join the G7, and it was a mistake to kick him out, according to Trump

Oh, we all know some oldies who love to talk about the good old days, which they remember with fondness. This is such a ‘good old days’ episode. Together with ‘BRICS is dead,’ it is as transparent as looking through the air. ‘Let’s get back to true empire where we, the leaders, on our Hill of Shining Light will be leaders again, and will even share with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.” (Subtext: Let this aberration of BRICS and countries not willing to play the empire game any longer pass us by. Gimme the dollar back! Call the Raiders and Crusaders and offer the other death or tariff-free manufacturing and, in any case, take their intelligent business class). Is that a good sniff of sweaty fear that I smell carried in on the air?

Mr Peskov had a very short response. The G7 is irrelevant, as there are other growth centers in the world. (That won’t stop the raiders and crusaders—they might beat their heads to pieces at their wailing wall of choice though.)  Peskov continued:  The Kremlin believes that the G8 has lost its relevance because it unites countries that are not leaders in economic growth.

BRICS is dead aka BRICS envy

“They were scared of 100% tariffs, and many of them are not happy there in BRICS. It is dead”. (From memory). I must admit, this statement moments before the bilateral with Mr Modi floored me. It was a moment of cognitive dissonance. Can they really be that tone-deaf).

Mr Peskov’s answer on the G7 went a little further. He said that Russia is more interested in the G20.

This cuts through the coercive threat of 100% tariffs because BRICS countries will trade with one another. Trump feels strong about madly swinging his cudgel called Tariff, but is it real?

Nuclear weapons reduction

Oh yes, Trump burbles very loudly, drowning out all other sounds like a falling waterfall:   Mr Putin is very interested in this, and we are going to make this remarkable. China must join us as they are very important.

China has consistently refused to get into the nuclear weapons squabble, saying it is not part of the arms race. They say if the US is so worried about this, why don’t they reduce it first to China’s level? (Let’s imagine that Russia shared its Oreshnik recipe with China, and we’re now building Oreshniks and not nukes. Trump really must get off the porch and get over the ‘good old day’ scenario. It is irrelevant.)

After the talks with Mr Modi, the weapons issue became less important. We’ll be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars. India will get ‘F-35 Stealth Fighters. ‘Strong cooperation in the QUAD — Australia, India, Japan, and US. — Trump. (So India is getting the shakedown for the hunk of trillion-dollar junk, F-35? Ooof!).

There will be much fallout and results or non-results from Trump’s press conference yesterday. It seems to me he is getting another NO on various levels, but let some time go by before we count this NO. It is early days. Trump does try to pretend that the world started on January 20th, just like the Israelis try to pretend that the world started on October 7th.