Venezuela run-up to elections .. as usual, in the crosshairs

Today we have a tight election in South Africa and Sunday in Mexico. And then we’re heading up to elections in Venezuela on July 28th ..

I always like to start writing on Venezuela with a reference to their music. Kids are encouraged to play in youth orchestras and this has lead to saving many a child. This started with the work of José Antonio Abreu, who started ‘Sistema’, and it is one of the really cool and tremendously feel good stories.

Let’s take a quick look:

The Simon Bolivar Youth orchestra
The remarkable accomplishment of a great humanist, José Antonio Abreu, who dedicated his life to set up the ‘Sistema’ in 1975, an extraordinary music and social project which has been running in Venezuela in an attempt to transform the lives of the nations poorest children.

It has been using classical music to tackle the social problems of a country where 60% of the population live below the poverty line. By offering free instruments and tuition through a network of after-school centres all over the country, the Sistema has kept thousands of children away from the drugs, alcohol and gang-related violence of the streets and has led to the creation of 30 professional orchestras in a country that had only 2 before it started. Currently, 275,000 children attend the Sistemas schools and many of them play in one of the 125 youth orchestras.

At the pinnacle of the system stands the Simón Bolívar Youth Orchestra of Venezuela under its music director Gustavo Dudamel who is himself a product of the Sistema and is also the musical director for the Los Angeles Philharmonic Orchestra.

Here is one of the pieces that this orchestra played in 2022 in Carnegie Hall: Short Ride in a Fast Machine. In the past some instruments were still home made.

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This illustrates that Venezuela is not only a sandy oily little country that is always in the cross hairs of all of the collective west. It is also the birthplace of Bolivarianism and this is the problem that the collective west has with Venezuela.  They are socialist, they help one another, they refuse to sell themselves short into the marketplace, they care for their children and they insist on what is fair for them as a community.

Currently the big deal is the new and recent discovery of oil and hydrocarbons.

Guyana greenlights oil drilling in waters claimed by Venezuela – Guyana recently announced a “significant” new oil discovery in an area claimed by neighboring Venezuela and said it had awarded bids to eight companies, foreign and local, to drill for crude in its waters.  British Guyana was a British Colony (or shall we say they still are, despite independence).   The Big Oil companies became very hungry and thought they would just take it.  Venezuela thought differently.  Venezuela’s maritime claim rests north of a projected 70-degree line out to sea from Punta Playa on the border with Guyana. The Guyanese government, along with most of the international community, rejects that claim, and the matter is being considered by the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Venezuela rejects the court’s authority.  And in this sentence is a reality to be found:  Even so, Guyana will restrict oil-related activities to the south of that unverified border to avoid inflaming the situation, the official, Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat, said in an interview.

The oil is off the coast of Essequibo.  The dispute over the Essequibo region—an approximately 160,000 square km stretch of densely forested land that constitutes two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is home to roughly 125,000 of its 800,000 citizens—stretches back to the 19^th century, when Guyana was under colonial rule. Venezuela has laid claim to the Essequibo region since 1841, when it argued that the British Empire had encroached on Venezuelan territory in its acquisition of the territory of then-British Guiana from the Netherlands. It has also challenged the validity of the 1899 Paris Arbitral Award through which the border between Venezuela and British Guiana was decided.  https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/04/private-meeting-on-the-territorial-dispute-between-guyana-and-venezuela.php

We GlobalSouth.co, kept pace with this development and was surprised in that Venezuela used local talent to help them come to decisions:

Venezuela and Guyana to Continue Talks on the Essequibo

Guiana, Venezuela, Essequibo.

Venezuela, Essequibo, Guyana

Their negotiating process was based on, and in, Bolivarianism, and they were adamant that they would not hurt their neighbors and that neighbors should not hurt them. Bolivarianism is a branch of socialism that believes in cooperativism, where communities come together to solve problems on both the local and larger levels. This system is designed to help primarily the lower and middle classes through what Chavez called “Bolivarian Missions.” In Venezuela, Chavez’s application of Bolivarianism was inspired by the nationalist freedom ideals of the War for Independence that Venezuela fought against Spain in 1961.

https://sites.lib.jmu.edu/plazasprotestsprocessions/2022/12/15/auto-draft-5/

Today we see the resurgence of communes in Venezuela. Years after the death of Comandante Hugo Chávez Frías, “commune or nothing” remains the battle cry of the Venezuelan people advancing in the Bolivarian revolution.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/04/10/the-advance-of-the-commune-in-venezuela/

The Venezuelanalysis Podcast Episode 25: The Communard Union and the Socialist Horizon

Over the years, the US has been accused of meddling in Venezuela’s elections with coercive economic measures, echoing tactics used in Nicaragua’s 1990 election. Of course, these were not only accusations but accurate fingerpointing. There are probably no other elections in our world today with more accusations of unfair elections, unfair tactics, and whatever can be thrown into the mix that sounds good, but there are probably no other elections in our world today that are as well run as the Venezuelan elections. But this time they did get a little worked up  …. and told the European Union that they may as well stay at home for the July elections and not be Venezuelan election observers.  Imagine those EU faces.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela’s electoral authorities on Tuesday revoked an invitation for a European Union mission to observe the country’s upcoming presidential election, in which President Nicolás Maduro is seeking reelection.

The head of the National Electoral Council, Elvis Amoroso, cited economic sanctions imposed by the 27-nation bloc as the reason for withdrawing the invitation. The EU had not yet accepted the invite that was extended earlier this year.

Amoroso said Tuesday’s decision is intended to show that EU representatives “are not welcome to come here to our country while the genocidal sanctions against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and especially its government, are maintained.”

Venezuela’s social movements are always working.  Here is a teach-in on how to recognize foreign meddling and blockades.

Countering the Impact of the US Blockade: A Conversation with Llanisca Lugo

Why have unilateral coercive measures become a weapon of choice in the imperialist arsenal?

The blockade does not feature in the story told by imperialism. Why? The idea is to transfer the responsibility for the problems in a blockaded country to its “bad” government. This is significant because, to the degree that the blockade diminishes the state’s efficacy, the institutions may seen as inept and incapable of governing and as exclusively accountable for the ongoing economic and financial crisis.

Of course, blockades never come alone. In Cuba, overt violence was deployed against the Revolution, but at present the blockade is the primary mechanism that imperialism uses. As a strategy, the blockade is a cultural and ideological mechanism that gives the US an advantage.

You have argued that the blockade can, in some cases, sow division between the revolutionary project and the pueblo. Could you elaborate on this?

Our situation is complex, because Cuba and Venezuela embarked on socialist projects in which the people are the protagonists. People’s power has been central, albeit in different ways, in both processes. Both Cuba and Venezuela recognize the pueblo as the subject of transformation, because it is understood that socialism is not possible any other way.

However, when the pueblo faces prolonged scarcity, then social fatigue, anomie, and apathy begin to emerge. This leads to a disconnect between the pueblo – the subject – and the revolutionary project. When this happens, tensions begin to emerge between the revolutionary power necessary for change and the project itself.

Since the state-as-a-revolutionary-power has to secure food for the people, produce essential goods, and assist vulnerable groups, that can weaken the strategic project. That’s why the situation requires constant monitoring.

In other words, we have to do everything possible so that the immediate problems don’t divert us from the strategic goal. That means that, while tackling scarcity and other economic problems, we also have to focus on the Revolution – which is always a work in progress – and address the shortcomings in our democratic processes. In short, we must pursue the project’s strategic objectives while addressing the immediate ones. Balancing both is crucial to prevent a gap from forming between the project and the pueblo.

The blockade restricts access to financial markets, hinders our relationship with banks, and delays vital deliveries of goods such as milk or even the fuel needed for hospital operations. When managing this complex situation, it’s difficult to sustain a political discourse about revolutionary construction, but it is imperative to do so.

In the Cuban case, which is the one I know best, significant efforts are made to engage in “what is to be done” discussions from a Marxist perspective – which is recognized as the ideological source of our revolution in the Constitution. Our debates also draw from the ideas of José Martí and Fidel. However, the blockade consistently obstructs progress, generating both economic and cultural pressures.

The stated objective of the blockades against our countries is “regime change.” Cuba has been subjected to a sanctions regime for over 60 years, while Venezuela has endured a nine-year blockade. Even so, our governments are still standing. So why does US imperialism continue to pursue this policy?

The blockade is deeply intertwined with US domestic politics, particularly during election cycles. It transcends party lines, with both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party embracing the strategy. It should be noted, however, that Trump’s policies were perhaps the most draconian, because they hindered our capacity to get medical inputs and inflicted severe blows to our economy.

While the blockade has failed to topple our governments, it has effectively created a degree of social fatigue and apathy. Moreover, the blockade makes the younger generations more disconnected – the generations who didn’t experience the Revolution first-hand when the most profound social transformations were occurring and emancipatory epic and mystique were strongest.

It’s important to recognize that a revolution is never a finished product and can be reversed. A revolution is not always linear, it’s not in permanent ascent, and it can be undone. We have also learned that the downturns in a revolution can be much more painful, intense, and rapid than the advances, which are often slow because revolutionary transformations take strength and patience.

The disciplinary effects of the blockade have led some young people to entertain the notion that capitalism offers them better prospects, thereby eating away at their rebelliousness. Consequently, some Cuban youth aspire to enter a labor market defined by the logic of capital.

The logic of capital prevails when you think that you deserve more than the other person; that it’s normal to exclude some so that others can advance; that private enterprises work better; and that collective solutions wear you down.

Hence, we must engage in an ongoing debate about which societal model offers better living conditions for the pueblo. We have to show that a communitarian society will be better.

Why is this, from my point of view, so important? Because the blockade invisibilizes our history and our enemy. It creates a narrative in which the Revolution bears the blame for all woes, while successes and solutions seem to come from elsewhere.

If the youth, who haven’t experienced our revolutionary history firsthand, don’t have spaces to reflect, if they don’t have their organizations, if they don’t have a place to rekindle the mystique of the revolutionary spirit in their own terms… then we are at risk of losing sight of our collective struggle.

Finally, we cannot assume that our project is a finished one, that it is solid, homogeneous, and resistant in the face of imperialism. We are in a permanent struggle that must go hand in hand with permanent debate.

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So we may all know that Venezuela has been sanctioned and sanctioned again and sanctions were placed on sanctions. The Venezuela sanctions regime is complex.  https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/sanctions-by-the-numbers-3. It remains complex as sanctions are imposed and then countries such as Venezuela are bribed or coerced or ‘jackalled’ or ‘hit-menned’ with the promise that they just need to do what the empire wants them to do, and sanctions will be lifted. But sanctions are never lifted.

Things now are bumpy. In the election run-up, the United States announced plans to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela—though with opportunities for exemptions—faulting Nicolás Maduro’s government for failing to uphold an agreement signed in Barbados in October 2023. The agreement was intended to put Venezuela on the path to holding a competitive presidential election in 2024, but Maduro’s government has cracked down on its political opponents ahead of the July 28 vote, including banning leading opposition candidate María Corina Machado. Of course, Machado was ‘planted’. Petroleum companies now have a complex procedure to apply to the US Treasury for an individual license or wind down their business with Venezuela, most notably with state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA.

Besides the snooty pronouncements by State Dept Chihuahuas each of which knows exactly what to do and pronounces this with words that I sure think they sometimes do not even understand, there is a bright spot which most of them miss.

With US sanctions waivers withdrawn, expect China to dominate as they did before these waivers were instituted. Ellen Wald a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and the co-founder of Washington Ivy Advisors has this to say:

Biden’s decision to withdraw the sanctions waiver for Venezuelan oil comes at a time when crude oil prices are coming off the highest prices seen this year. Just last month, Venezuela’s crude oil and petroleum product exports hit a four-year high. However, the amount of oil in question is relatively minor on the global scale and should not impact oil prices. In September 2023, the month before the Biden administration issued the waiver, Venezuela exported a total of 797,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol (according to TankerTrackers.com). More than 50 percent of its petroleum went to China. Other notable customers included the United States, Spain, Indonesia, and Cuba. By March 2024, Venezuela’s total exports had only increased by about one hundred thousand bpd, but it had significantly diversified its customers. Chinese exports dropped to 39 percent and notable cargoes went to India, the Netherlands, Singapore, Brazil, and Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba. (Note: Data on oil exports comes via TankerTrackers.com.)

Now that the waivers have been withdrawn, we should expect China to dominate Venezuela’s oil exports. US oil supplies should not be impacted since the total amount of Venezuelan oil and oil products imported by the United States before and after the waivers were issued was nearly identical. Venezuela will probably continue to export at the 895,000 bpd level because China will probably purchase additional cargoes that other nations stop buying now that sanctions are back in place. Overall, Venezuelan revenue may drop slightly as China will likely negotiate lower prices now that the competition for Venezuelan oil is significantly reduced.

Maduro is standing for a 3rd term. Maduro’s re-election to a six-year term in 2018 – widely considered fraudulent – was not recognized by the United States and dozens of other countries, and was met with a string of sanctions. The farce was Juan Guaido, which we all lived through. This episode was the one that made me aware that the empire is now simply appointing leaders for other countries and not bothering to go through the motions of salting the waters of the election wells.  This may be something for the North Americans to take in, as what you all are seeing is bread and circuses, just like Juan Guaido.

How can a country in reality have clean elections in these kinds of circumstances? Nevertheless, in 2018 there were 3 candidates (with Guaido ghosted in at some stage and the collective West accepting him like they did Zelenski of Ukraine fame), and this year there are six. (I do not know who is less relevant, Zelenski or Guaido. The last time I saw anything from him, he was pelted with a bunch of chairs right out of a beer hall.)

We have good people, people who are passionate and focused on their objectives, we have a country that has been flattened financially and otherwise over and over again, threatened, coerced, and dragged into many different directions. They are just people. Maduro, whom they call a bus driver, has turned out to be not the most brilliant, but he is an honest man, dedicated to Bolivarianism and so far has kept his country together. Hell on the Hegemon! I hope China takes all the business.

On elections, in medieval Venice way back during the 13th century, the Venetian state solidified and elected a Great Council comprised of 40 members. The Venetians implemented “approval voting.” In this type of election, electors cast one vote for every candidate they found acceptable and none for those they found unacceptable. The winner was the person who was acceptable to the largest number of voters.  Now, we call elections a manifestation of democracy but if you see what happens during elections, is it democracy?  I don’t think so.  It is just another system that has been flattened, coerced, broken, and dragged in many different directions.

South Africa today has an important election, the first one that is free from the over-the-top ANC influence since the freedom election in 1994.  It will be a change as the ANC may have to combine with a coalition to remain with a strong enough power base.  There are not really old leaders from ANC fame to recycle at this point, which is what happened up to now.

Mexico?   Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, has maintained a comfortable double-digit lead in polls for months. She promises to be a continuation of populist leader López Obrador and is backed by his ruling Morena party. Trained as a scientist, Sheinbaum has had to walk a fine line to carve out her image while highlighting her connection to López Obrador, though she lacks the charisma that attracted many to her political ally.    Then they have Xóchitl Gálvez, an opposition senator and tech entrepreneur, who represents a coalition of parties that have had little historically to unite them other than their recent opposition to López Obrador. Gálvez is a fierce critic of the outgoing president who doesn’t shy away from verbal sparring, but who hasn’t appeared to ignite much fervor for her Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition.  The third candidate is little-known Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a former federal congressman from the Citizen Movement party. He has focused on trying to scoop up the young vote but has not gotten much traction.  So now we know a bit about the main candidates, but what we do not know, is what they will do for the country.

So, Venezuela is actually fielding a field of real candidates, compared with these other two elections.