Iran: The Consensus – Notes

From Moon of Alabama to Sonar 21 to most commentators that we know, the consensus is that a war on Iran is imminent. Larry at Sonar 21 discusses how the US is currently shaping the operational environment through intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, information operations, civil affairs, psychological operations, and other preparatory actions—often in denied or politically sensitive areas.

Trump said today at the Board of Peace that within 10 days the world will know what will happen to Iran.  (One cannot believe him, but, at the so-called Board of Peace which shows all of us exactly what that circus is about).

The consensus bases its analysis mainly on the airlift of weapons of war that has streamed into the region as we watched over the past weeks. The general sense is that Trump is forced to act, and no TACO is possible.  We all know that during his first term, Trump simply cancelled the JPCOA, designed to avoid war with Iran.

There is of course, always the fear that Israel will make use of its nukes in one way or another, and this appears in many discussions.

Russia, China and Iran are still following a diplomatic path.

Today the Kremlin has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening relations with Iran, while simultaneously urging all parties in the region to prioritize political and diplomatic solutions to resolve tensions.

What the consensus does not mention in general is that we still have Russian warships in the Strait of Hormuz.  Although the exercises are complete and they are playing volleyball now, the warships are still there.

NEW:

🇮🇷🇷🇺 Iranian and Russian warships in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/gslE8EcruY

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 19, 2026

There is also news in from Saudi Arabia, who seems to be talking as usual out of both sides of their mouths.  They are reportedly now in favor of a ‘limited operation’. As usual they are not reliable to say it mildly. Despite what they said, this is the position:

BREAKING:

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇸🇦 Chinese satellites revealed that Saudi Arabia would participate in the war with Iran after all

Chinese satellites have revealed the location of 13 US Air Force tanker aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia

Boeing E-3G AWACS and 5 Lockheed C-130 Hercules are also… pic.twitter.com/BW3YBRiFzJ

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 19, 2026

Today, in a letter to the UN, Iran urged immediate action by the Security Council to prevent escalating tensions with the United States, warning that any military aggression would be met with a decisive and proportionate response. “If our country is attacked, we will consider enemy bases in region as target.”

The general sense in the media in Iran is calm, but resolute.  The calm atmosphere may also be because it is Ramadan.

Iran Daily reports:

One point I have understood from searching Hebrew sources is that Trump will not issue an order to attack/agree until he sees Iran’s final proposal, and this final package, which Hebrew sources call the final proposal, will be presented around the end of next week [approximately coinciding with Rubio’s trip to Tel Aviv].

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱
💠@iran_daily24‌‌💠

In previous times of high threat, we used to get notification of Israeli shelters opening.  This time I have not seen such notifications.  This was the only one that I saw:  “Israeli emergency services, including the Magen David Adom, have been instructed to prepare for war.”

Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff discussed today that the oil price is certainly not behaving as it should, given the consensus of an imminent threat of war. It is in fact behaving as normal as can be.

Just in from Brian Berletic, the following:

The US is going to attack Iran as soon as preparations are final and if Iran and its allies fail to sufficiently deter US aggression.

There were never any real negotiations.

The decision to attack Iran was made in the 1970s when Iran rightfully ousted the US installed puppet regime in power at the time.

Since then and regardless of who Americans voted for or why, the US has continued pursuing the overthrow and recapture of Iran (and many other wars for global primacy) through sanctions, political interference, terrorism, proxy war, and preparations for direct war.

The US is not run by politicians, it is run by unelected corporate interests that simply use politicians as a distraction and as constantly disposed of scapegoats.

All of their plans are constantly written out into stacks of policy papers they know ordinary people will never read or accept as reality because propaganda and self-denial is far more attractive.

President Trump works for these corporations and is in charge of absolutely nothing, and as I warned before he stepped foot in office (in 2017) he was going to pick up right where Obama left off and he did.

Just as the 2009 Brookings Institution paper “Which Path to Persia” laid out, he withdrew from the Iran “Nuclear Deal” the US never had any intention of honoring in the first place and specifically to use its “failure” as a pretext for more US aggression.

That was a charade that spanned the Obama-Trump administrations requiring cooperation and continuity between both.

And before Trump stepped foot into office in 2025, I warned again he would continue right where Biden left off. And he did.

The war launched under Trump on Iran was only possible following regime change in Syria carried out under the previous Biden administration.

Again, all requiring cooperation and continuity between both administrations.

Now you can see for yourself this is 100% true.

I remember following the US war last year against Iran – there were people actually arguing that Trump fought it to “stop” a wider war.

Well, that wider war is coming now and all the war last year was meant to do was set the stage for it – which I also warned about.

It’s time for people to wake up from their Wall Street-built left-right cages – but also their own self-built cages of denial – and pay attention to what is REALLY happening vs. what lying politicians and their media partners, “liberal” or “conservative,” are trying to convince us is happening, or what we WISH was happening.

Sleep well.  A war does not really start before the first missiles fly, and they are not flying yet.  It is however, fast reaching the state that the parties cannot step back.

I am amazed at this woman, as maga as maga could be, consistently speaking her truth.

JUST IN:

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene with a message to the World before the WAR with Iran:

“Dear world, Americans do not support going to WAR. Americans want rich powerful pedos and rapists strung up on gallows”

Full message:

“Dear World,

Americans… pic.twitter.com/8ZyWdB55pz

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 19, 2026