Situation in Venezuela

Short Analysis : • @misionverdad

🟢After the US military operation on January 3rd, the political environment in Venezuela remains calm. There are no indications that the Chavista government is weakening. In the immediate future, much will depend on how the balance of power within the Venezuelan government changes and what the Americans’ next steps will be in a month, once the euphoria of the attack on Venezuela has passed.

🟢Currently, Washington is focused on establishing contacts with the moderate wing of Chavismo, represented by the acting president Delcy Rodríguez and her brother, the president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez. Given the lack of real support from the opposition within the country, the Rodríguez family remains the only acceptable interlocutor for Washington.

🟢The Rodríguez brothers are staunch Chavistas and close allies of President Maduro. The rumors about their possible betrayal of the head of state, fueled by some Western media, are far from reality.

🟢It is unlikely that the Venezuelan government will blindly submit to Washington’s coercion. At the same time, US pressure will continue and Delcy Rodríguez will have to try to please both the United States and the radical wing of Chavismo that controls the security apparatus. It is extremely important for the current government to maintain the balance of power that existed under N. Maduro and avoid making excessive concessions to the White House.

🟢The so-called “three-stage plan” of the USA presented by Secretary of State M. Rubio for the “stabilization”, “recovery” and “transition” of power in Venezuela is considered practically unfeasible. The Americans have not yet offered any concrete roadmap or deadlines for its implementation. It seems that the White House is acting circumstantially and lacks a real strategy of action.

🟢The only exception to this plan could be cooperation in the oil sector, which is of real interest to the Venezuelan authorities. However, it is unlikely that major investments will be made immediately. A short-term option could resemble a format similar to the cooperation with the US company Chevron. That is, small operators could act as suppliers of diluents, provide imports of components, equipment and services to maintain production in exchange for oil supplies. In such a case, production could increase to 1.5 million barrels per day within 18 months. A further increase in production would take years and require significant capital investment.