A very remarkable Ukraine frontline report: about those cauldrons and the soldiers within them

Marat Khairullin hits it out of the park!  I have not included the maps, but do take a look at them on the substack.  https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/afu-against-afu-who-will-take-revenge

I guarantee you, you will not need the maps to understand this wonderful writing with its vast promise of how to deal with these issues in our world.  What was more remarkable, was the decisions of the Russian Security Council throughout. This was evident from the start. A war was necessary against fraternal people because of meddling. Marat explains how Russia squares the circle.

And just before I posted this, Mr Putin invites international media, including Ukrainian, to visit the 1,000s of encircled Ukrainian troops, so the ‘leadership of Ukraine can decide their fate’. Russia will ready to ‘suspend’ military actions for ‘several hours’ to allow journalists to talk to Ukrainian troops. https://t.me/rtnews/118352

We may be off to a photo finish never seen before, for the SMO.
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Last week, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin, staggering figures: in two “cauldrons” there are five thousand AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) soldiers surrounded in each. (Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk.)

Everything about this news is remarkable — the scale of the events, the fact that they are happening on different fronts simultaneously, and the new meaning of the term (cauldron) itself. And of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich’s reaction was somewhat unexpected. Instead of harsh words (we’ll catch an AFU soldier in the latrine and drown him there), Putin gave a lecture on humane treatment of prisoners.

What could this mean? It is important to understand that VVP speaks words but sends signals. What signal was sent this time?

We must start with the fact that a fundamental turning point is happening on the front — the exhausted enemy forces are increasingly being captured.

Only at the beginning of summer, the President spoke of six to seven thousand AFU servicemen taken prisoner. Since then, there have been a series of major exchanges. Nevertheless, according to various data, the number of enemy prisoners remains around two thousand and continues to grow.

It is clear that this primarily reflects the dynamics on the front as well as the condition of personnel at the frontline. From this perspective, information about the “cauldrons” looks very significant, because the very understanding of a “cauldron” has changed.

If you look at the map, for example, near Kupyansk, we do not see a continuous, physically closed ring. Between Kupyansk and Skorostnaya station, where our troops’ forward positions are located, along the Oskol River, there are more than 15 kilometers. However, the remote control (with drones, artillery, and aviation) of our forces here is such that one can quite rightly speak of a complete encirclement. That is, it is such a dense wall of drones that enemy soldiers can only enter and exit in small groups, secretly.

Since there is no serious impact from the Kharkov direction on our positions in terms of breaking the blockade, it can be confidently stated that the “noose” will continue to tighten.

I remind you, our troops crossed the Oskol last year near Dvurechnaya, then expanded the bridgehead in the Kharkov region to almost 50 kilometers, which ultimately allowed entry into Kupyansk.

Kupyansk was taken from the rear, and the AFU could not prevent this. In other words, the enemy had no forces from the very beginning of the operation to stop our army (these are the very noose rings, once caught in which there is no chance to get out — slow and reliable). And now even more so.

So five thousand enemy fighters in this particular direction are doomed. What choice do they have? Either die or surrender.

And here Vladimir Putin sends a public signal: we treat prisoners very humanely. And most importantly, the battle map hints that this is not a one-time action.

Let’s count the next noose rings (in order). The Senkovo – Borovaya section and then Lozovoe are in the process of formation (south of Kupyansk on the first map). A solid piece already being cut into three parts.

Next, Drobyshevo – Liman. Small, but nevertheless almost a “cauldron” — our forces have reached the eastern outskirts of Liman and secured positions. They physically cut off the only Slavyansk – Liman highway. In fact, this ring is already closed.

The next ring is actively ripening — the Seversk pocket is about to snap shut. The main supply route Seversk – Zakotnoe is under our (fire) control. Svyato-Pokrovskoe will also soon physically return to Russia — our troops are less than three kilometers away. So Seversk is gasping its last.

And then the “Konstantinovka pocket,” which will say goodbye to Ukraine as soon as our troops finish clearing Pokrovsk and Mirnograd (Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov) — where five and a half thousand miserable AFU soldiers are abandoned.

And then Gulyaipole: simply a wonder, not just a “pocket” in active formation.

Orekhov is already on the starting blocks; as Gulyaipole falls into the “pocket,” it will begin here as well.

This map is from early July. The actual front line has moved closer to Orekhov. The Gulyaipole direction is to the East of this map.

In other words, even with the most modest estimate, in the coming months tens of thousands of enemy soldiers will be encircled. About 50 thousand, including Kupyansk and Pokrovsk.

And this is no accident. Everything has been leading to this.

Our General Staff did not hide the main directions of the strike – everything happened slowly, persistently, and as publicly as possible. Remember Kupyansk – it was surrounded step by step for almost half a year. And all those months the AFU command equally persistently helped our General Staff implement its plans, demonstrating the same tactic – no maneuvers and not a step back, encircle, we will wait.

At this stage, it is already clear that the AFU does not intend to change or save the remnants of its troops: to abandon positions and withdraw them deeper.
If we omit all incidental reasoning, any military planner at least must consider the possibility of mass surrender – all conditions have matured for this.

That is why Vladimir Vladimirovich is starting a campaign: choose surrender and life. But this is only the surface level; if you dig a little deeper, everything becomes much more interesting.

It turns out that now on the frontline, former AFU servicemen are already fighting on our side. In some units, “mopping-up groups” have been formed from prisoners who switched to our side (this is what stormtroopers are now called). In our army, a program has been deployed, so to speak, to restore loyalty to Russia among people from the other side.

This, by the way, is one of the strong points of our President – he knows how to turn former enemies into loyal allies. Remember the Chechen experience. Instead of totally destroying everyone who fought against us, the Russian authorities called to their side the most negotiable, and then, mostly through their hands, pacified the rebellious province. Now, apparently, the same moment has come when we have again turned to this experience.

Those who fought in Mariupol from start to finish remember that at the final stage a special negotiation group appeared, which convinced the enemies holed up in Azovstal to surrender. Ukrainians were already part of it then. Now several special groups (so-called “external commands”) are known, which include AFU officers who switched to our side. Their task is to convince the surrounded enemies to surrender. How effective they are will be shown in the near future.

Moreover, active work is underway among the surrendered to recruit fighters into special units. Those who serve a “special contract” are guaranteed full rehabilitation and Russian citizenship. Judging by the increasing number of reports from the field about former AFU fighters fighting on our side, this work is yielding certain results.

Here there is also a cherry on top. Persistent rumors say that a group of former AFU servicemen who served their “special contract” and washed away the Nazi stigma with blood arrived at one of Kiriyenko’s “gubernatorial schools.” They say it is a small group, only 12 people.

It is assumed that this is the first attempt to prepare managerial personnel for the new territories. This is one of the problems – Russian managers, grown by domestic standards, simply do not survive there. And the local personnel themselves show big problems. What kind, we will tactfully keep silent, but Ukraine is not called the most corrupt country in the world for nothing.

And now tireless Kiriyenko is trying to prepare new governors from people who, frankly, have nothing left to lose – “either with Russia or death.”

It turns out that they want to try to bring Ukraine to its senses with the hands of Ukrainians. Our conditional revenge on the Nazis. It is clear that people with such experience behind them are very tough by nature. They definitely will not be soft.

It remains only to add that all the above is the author’s speculation, I do not communicate with the top leadership and, accordingly, do not reveal secrets. I build my assumptions solely on personal observations. Our VVP (Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin) likes to portray simplicity, but the planning horizon is quite something.

Nazi Zelensky is still “barking” in Kyiv, and ours are already systematically preparing management personnel for the former Ukropia. Returning the brotherly people their identity.