The New Rand Report – Stabilizing the US-China Rivalry

So my email is exploding with this new Rand Report, as if it is different from the others.  There are differences and the main one here, is that it is not a Rand Report.  But as you can see from the image, it was not commissioned by any US government agency.  It is not a position report, but a commentary.

Let’s hear Nuri Vittachi:

Yep. The whole problem is that while US peaceniks write pro-peace papers — the US war hawks are LITERALLY spending 100s of billions of dollars building warship docks right now: you can literally fly to Palau or Batanes and see them!

Vittachi nevertheless summarizes the report:

THE U.S. SHOULD STOP using Taiwan to provoke Beijing, a new Rand report says.

– The US can force Taipei politicians to work towards peace instead of polarization.

– Leadership over the South China Sea can be shared between the US and China.

– The US should have dialogue with China’s officials instead of antagonizing them. .

DOVES VS HAWKS

The new Rand study contains an unusual level of honesty about the US’s prime role in creating trouble in East Asia – but its conclusions go diametrically against active plans by the US Department of War.

The US’s war ministry is continuing to build warship harbors in numerous locations in the region, and spending tens of billions of dollars to use on weapons in a regularly updated plan for war on China. What this new Rand publication really shows is the widening gulf between Washington DC’s hyperactive, cash-splurging war hawks, and the growing call for restraint by academics and researchers. .

PREPARING FOR WAR

While the China doves release papers, the China hawks are actually getting things done—and spending vast amounts of money. As recently as July this year, Reuters released a report entitled: “Papering over strains, US and allies prepare for Taiwan war.” Also this summer, Deputy US war minister Elbridge Colby asked Japan and Australia to specifically define what roles they would play in an upcoming conflict between the US and China, the Financial Times reported.

The US in July siphoned off more than US$4 billion of public cash to spend on new underwater and amphibious landing craft designed for use in Chinese waters, enabled by clauses tucked into the text of Donald Trump’s “big beautiful” bill. These new generation weapons are currently under construction. .

HYSTERICAL MEDIA

So while this frenzy of war preparations continues, this new Rand report, issued on October 14, points out the obvious: a China war is completely unnecessary–and bad for all sides. The study echoes US research from the Journal of International Security, published in August, which poured scorn on hysterical claims by some western politicians and media that China was on the verge of invading Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and ultimately trying to take over the world. The Journal’s analysis of 12,000 Chinese documents showed no plans to invade any other territories or establish US-style leadership over the world. .

RAND ON TAIWAN

With regards to the island of Taiwan, recognized as a province of China by international law, the new Rand study says the United States should “avoid obvious provocations that would force Beijing’s hand” and “generate as many political reassurances as possible to leave Beijing comfortable with a patient approach”. This “suggestion” will be taken as rather rich from Asia’s point of view. For years, China has tried to maintain the status quo, while US politicians and media have been working to destroy it—the US landed troops on Taiwan soil in contravention of agreements, it tore up promises not to send US government officials (remember Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit?) to the island, and it escalated arms sales after promising to reduce them to zero. Furthermore, media and politicians have for at least four decades wrongly accused the Mainland Chinese of preparing to “imminently” launch an invasion of the Chinese-owned island, while Beijing has denied this, instead taking the approach of decades-long patience.

ONE NEW STEP

The Rand study recommends the taking of practical steps, which could include the issue of “U.S. statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification”. On China’s part, the study says “China could reaffirm that peaceful reunification is the preferred approach”. (Again, this is literally what Beijing has done for decades.)

But one interesting new strategy is raised by the report – the US could get touch with its allied politicians on the Chinese island and get them to reign in the troublemaking, it says. “The United States could balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure that Taiwan’s actions do not escalate tensions with China and destabilize cross-Strait security,” the report says. This is a clear change in the US relationship with Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, liberally used by the Biden Administration as a remote-controlled tool to stir up animosity with the mainland. .

SHARE THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

As for the South China Sea, the Rand report has a clear recommendation: “Strengthen mutual restraint between Beijing, Manila, and Washington over specific disputes around the Second Thomas Shoal, the Scarborough Shoal, and other features prone to incidents.” This new line would be a direct repudiation of the strategy of the Biden Administration, which set up a deal with Philippines President Bongbong Marcos to deliberately generate acts of friction in the waters, which were then blamed on the Chinese side. Vessels from the Philippines’ side have been moving into shared waters equipped with journalists and cameramen to ensure that narratives generated by interactions were shaped as “Chinese bullying”. There’s hope on both sides that the Trump administration’s less enthusiastic friendship with the generally disliked Marcos will be beneficial to all sides. .

HARD TO PORTRAY CHINA AS BAD GUY

Furthermore, it is getting harder to portray the Chinese as the bad guy in the area. Vietnam is set to overtake China in the work of expanding the most controversial islets in the South China Seas, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies admitted in a new report as recently as August. Once Hanoi becomes the biggest player in disputed parts of the South China Sea, the mainstream media and western politicians will lose interest in disputes in the area—and a major tool to cultivate negativity against China could be lost.

Beletic slots in, and he made it his work to analyze these types of reports specifically to see where they touch on reality.  He says:

100%. That is how one sorts through policy papers – seeing what is written in them that matches with what is happening in reality. Otherwise anyone can say anything and find a paper somewhere “confirming” their desired fantasy. It is a very dangerous, reckless, even irresponsible practice.

And then we have StarBoy, telling us what the report really says: