So what did China do yesterday?
We have Trump’s comments and then more tariffs of 100% on top of existing ones against China announced yesterday. There is much more on Trump’s TruthSocial, but this is the outcome:
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large-scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them. This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.
Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also, on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.
It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
So, on average, we’re looking at a tariff rate for the US from China at 130% (though some products will have different rates). In light of China’s actions, this becomes a minor and tangential issue and will not change reality in any material way. For example, the cost of imported shoes (and they are all imported) may rise many percentage points, but it will be a small drop in an ocean of pain. Trump is rolling the dice blindly.
But what did China do?
What is Trump bloviating about?
China lost strategic trade and economic patience. It kicked the can of modern industrial life right over. China does not want to play chess with the pigeons any longer, so they kicked the chessboard right off the table themselves. The last thing we heard is that China first applied its new policy to India to ensure that India does not re-export rare earths. This was clearly signalled during the Indian negotiations, and we mentioned these in the Daily Chronicles. So if we here on our site took notice of what was happening, why is it coming as a surprise to the US? To be true, China was patient for a long time. If I had to negotiate with a person like Bessent, I would have kicked him in the can long before now.
To begin understanding this, here are comments from a US-based physicist. ” Weaponized” is a strong word to use; nevertheless, this is what it feels like for people in the industry in the US. Let’s mention that there has been ample ‘false flag’ purchasing of rare earths. A group from anywhere would appear to buy rare earths, acting simply as a proxy for the US. China has not kept this secret, but many warnings were given. China does not sell dual-purpose goods, and all of these rare earths are amply used in the weapons industry for one. (My sneaky thought is, what rare earths are used in those Tomahawk missiles that we’ve all been talking about?)
Our expert in the industry says:
CHINA JUST WEAPONIZED THE ENTIRE RARE EARTH SUPPLY CHAIN
Get used to reading Chinese MOFCOM bulletins because they’re writing American industrial policy now.
Announced today: Any product containing >0.1% Chinese rare earth materials needs Beijing’s approval before re-export to third countries.
It does not matter if you manufactured it in Taiwan, Vietnam, or Texas.
Chinese dysprosium in your magnet? Chinese gallium in your chip? Beijing gets veto power over the sale.
This is the nuclear option.
The US spent 3 years trying to deny China access to advanced chipmaking tools. China just responded with a chokehold on literally every semiconductor fab, AI data center, defense contractor, and EV manufacturer on earth. Everything runs on Chinese rare earths. Building alternative supply chains takes a minimum of 5-10 years.
We don’t have 5-10 years, as this is effective December 1st. The AI boom just hit a hard ceiling, and we’re still pretending we can offshore our way to prosperity. It is time to reindustrialize like our lives depend on it, because they do.
I followed the expert’s suggestion and went to read the MOFCON Bulletins. They spell utter pain, even devastation, for the industrial and technological development of those on our planet who are not playing a clean game. Let me say it differently – this new policy could have been a part of the Chinese military parade in Beijing just a few weeks ago. They could have had a truck in this parade with a big sign: New Rare Earth Policy.
Let’s take a look: (Don’t glaze over, just scan it) https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_7fc9bff0fb4546ecb02f66ee77d0e5f6.html
Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 61 of 2025
Date of publication: 09 October 2025
In order to safeguard national security and interests, in accordance with the relevant provisions of laws and regulations such as the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China and the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Export Control of Dual-Use Items, the State Council of China has decided to take the following export control measures:
Overseas organizations and individuals (hereinafter referred to as “foreign specific export operators”) must obtain export licenses for dual-use items issued by the Ministry of Commerce of China before exporting the following items to other countries and regions other than China:
(a) containing, integrating or mixing items originating in China in Part I of this Announcement manufactured overseas in Part I of this Announcement, and the items listed in Part I of Annex 1 of this Announcement account for 0.1% or more of the value of the items listed in Part II of Annex 1 manufactured abroad;
(B) the use of rare earth mining, smelting separation, metal smelting, magnet manufacturing, rare earth secondary resource recycling technology in China production in the overseas production of items listed in annex 1;
(3) Items listed in Annex 1 of this Proclamation originating in China.
Applications for exports to overseas military users, as well as to importers and end-users listed on the Export Control and Concern List (including subsidiaries, branches and other branches holding 50% or more of which they hold, shall not be licensed in principle.
An export application for or possibly for the following end-uses shall not be licensed in principle:
(a) design, develop, produce and use weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery;
(b) the purpose of terrorism;
(3) military use or enhance military potential.
The end use is the research and development, production of 14 nanometers and below logic chips or 256 layers and above memory chips, as well as the manufacture of the above-mentioned process semiconductor production equipment, test equipment and materials, or the development of artificial intelligence for potential military purposes of export applications, on a case-by-case basis.
The end-use is an export application for emergency medical care, responding to public health emergencies, natural disaster relief and other humanitarian relief, and overseas export operators do not need to apply for an export license for dual-use items, but they should report to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce by email (jingwaibaogao@mofcom.gov.cn) no later than 10 working days after export, and promise that the relevant items will not be used for purposes that endanger China’s national security and interests.
The application for export authorization of dual-use items by a specific overseas export operator shall submit the relevant documents in accordance with Article 16 of the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items and the requirements of the export authorization approval system of the Ministry of Commerce of China, which shall be based on Chinese. The approval system is available at http://ecomp.mofcom.gov.cn.
Specific overseas export operators can directly submit application documents, and can also entrust enterprises, intermediary service agencies, chambers of commerce, associations, etc. located in China. The relevant intermediary service agencies or chambers of commerce or associations shall be independent legal persons or illegal organizations that can independently bear legal responsibility.
The specific export operator abroad cannot determine whether the items to be exported belong to the items that should apply for export authorization in accordance with the provisions of this announcement, and can be consulted by e-mail (jingwaizuxun@mofcom.gov.cn).
The export by a domestic export operator to the dual-use items listed in the first part of Annex 1 of this announcement shall, at the time of export declaration, fill in the final destination country or region in accordance with the requirements, and issue a “compliance notice” to the overseas importer and end-user in accordance with the compliance guidelines attached to this announcement.
The overseas export operator shall, in accordance with the compliance guidelines annexed to this announcement, issue a Notice of Compliance to the next recipient when transferring or exporting the items controlled by this announcement.
The “I (I)” and “I (II)” sections of this announcement shall be implemented as of December 1, 2025. This part of the “I (III)” section of this announcement shall be implemented from the date of promulgation.
Annex:
The list of items for us non-chemistry folks, reads a little double-dutch but it illustrates. Some of us will understand what the rare-earths are meant for. I quote only one of them and you can find the rest on the list of items link just above.
In reality, the expert was right. Read the MOFCON notices if you are interested on a deeper technical level.
[Issuer] Bureau of Industry, Security, Import and Export Control
[Issuance Document Number] Announcement No.18 of 2025 of the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
[Date of Issuance] April 4, 2025
According to the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People’s Republic of China and the Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People’s Republic of China, in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, with the approval of the State Council, a decision is made to implement export control on the following items:
I．Samarium related items
(1) 1C902.a Samarium metal, samarium-containing alloys and related products:
1．Samarium metal (Reference customs code: 2805301910).
2．Samarium-containing alloys:
a．Samarium-cobalt alloy;
b．Samarium-iron alloy;
c．Samarium-nickel alloy;
d．Samarium-aluminum alloy;
e．Samarium-magnesium alloy.
3．Samarium-containing targets (Reference customs codes: 3824999922, 8486909110):
a．Samarium target;
b．Samarium-cobalt alloy target;
c．Samarium-iron alloy target.
4．Samarium cobalt permanent magnet materials.
(2) 1C902.b Samarium oxide and its mixtures (Reference customs codes: 2846901940, 2846901993, 3824999922).
(3) 1C902.c Samarium-containing compounds and their mixtures (Reference customs codes: 2846902810, 2846902910, 2846903910, 2846904820, 2846904910, 2846909920, 3824999922).
Notes:
1. Alloys controlled under items 1C902.a.2, 1C903.a.2, 1C904.a.2, 1C905.a.2, 1C906.a.2, 1C907.a.2, and 1C908.a.2 include forms such as ingots, lumps, bars, wires, sheets, rods, plates, tubes, granules, and powders.
2. Targets controlled under items 1C902.a.3, 1C903.a.3, 1C904.a.3, 1C905.a.3, 1C906.a.3, 1C907.a.3, and 1C908.a.3 include forms such as plates and tubes.
3. Permanent magnet materials controlled under items 1C902.a.4, 1C904.a.4, and 1C905.a.4 include magnets or magnetic powders.
4. Oxides, compounds, and mixtures controlled under items 1C902.b, 1C902.c, 1C903.b, 1C903.c, 1C904.b, 1C904.c, 1C905.b, 1C905.c, 1C906.b, 1C906.c, 1C907.b, 1C907.c, 1C908.b, and 1C908.c include but are not limited to, forms such as powders.
To export the above- described items, the exporter shall apply for the license from the competent commercial authority of the State Council in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China and the Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People’s Republic of China.
The exporter shall identify the items and indicate in the Remarks section whether the goods for export are controlled items when making customs declarations. For controlled items, its dual-use item control number shall be specified. For any doubt about the declared information, the customs authorities will question it in accordance with the law, and the goods for export will not be released during the questioning period.
This announcement shall come into effect on the date of issuance. The Export Control List of Dual-Use Items of the People’s Republic of China is updated accordingly.
Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs, April 4, 2025
Well, there you have it. This is what China did. I cannot say they did not consistently warn and caution the US to stop playing the game of extending the concept of national security in terms of trade. Will even the trains run in the US? Think of modern drones. The rest of the world that Trump talks about will be fine, as they will buy their rare earths with no problems. The underlying message here is something like: If Iran cannot have nukes (whereas Iran has a fatwa against weapons of mass destruction, but no matter, the cry continues), neither can you, you empirical barbarian!
The expert conversation that I quoted first continued with a desperate outreach to find anyone in the industry, anyone that has a source, or even a suggested source. They’re calling for cooperatives, for anything that may make this better. As we all may have learned, it is not the material that is the major problem, it is the mining and processing of that material, which is dirty, hard and raw work with many proximate problems. As the expert said, building alternative supply chains takes a minimum of 5-10 years and this cycle starts once the raw material is mined.
This is devastating, and not a shot across the bows but a shot right into the engine room of the ship. This is not a trade war, which China has warned about too many times to count. This is technological decapitation. The tariffs are a reflex action that, as we say for Ukraine, will not change the conditions on this battlefield.
“Nobody has ever seen anything like this”
It would be great if we could have a male descriptive of a “karen” why are expletives always female? especially the C one and especially describing men? Its as if there has never been even one entitled male who has become a meme. can’t we call entitled males a “donald”… Read more »
“Trump Is FURIOUS: 78% of America’s Military Runs on CHINESE Minerals as China BANS Rare Earth Export” Please watch the linked shocking report. The first image below is a screenshot. It really is Game Over, if the lunatic zombies only understood, and had an “off button.” NB. as his first… Read more »
So America launches a global economic war and extortion campaign (disingenuously described as “Trump tariffs”) but now plays the victim and whines like an entitled Karen when China counters this US economic war with restrictions on exports of military dual-use metals to the not-so peace-loving USA. Ever heard of FAFO?… Read more »
When the Agent Orange regime launched it’s trade war against China in 2017 I remember the Chinese Finance Minister responding, and I’m paraphrasing here- I don’t recall the reply word for word but the gist was: ’ no one wins in a trade war…commerce, trade, international transaction and SME (small… Read more »