“Security guarantees” for Ukraine — a way to introduce NATO troops

From Elena Panina – https://t.me/EvPanina/17173

The meeting of Trump at the White House with Zelensky and his support group from the EU showed: de facto, the division of Ukraine has begun. It is about what forces and means the West and Russia will use to ensure mutual deterrence on the territory of Ukraine. This is exactly how the military-diplomatic term “security guarantees” for Ukraine should be understood.

▪️ Ukraine has been a disputed and buffer territory between Russia and Europe for centuries. This includes economic resources, including demographics, and the ability to redeploy troops to each other’s borders. Currently, the irreconcilable and radical position of the Old World is primarily due to the fact that the division of Ukraine is taking place between Russia and the USA. The Old World got nothing and feels deprived, as it financed the war but ultimately receives no spoils. Europe demands a share, otherwise its leaders will not be forgiven for the defeat.

In this case, Europe will be the main loser, apart from Kyiv. Hence — its active preparation for a comeback. Moreover, this is not about security or deterring Russia. It is about the share that Europe expects to subsequently wrest from Russia, bypassing the territory controlled by the USA.

But if Russia and the West argue over the territories of former Ukraine, then no one asks the ex-Ukraine itself anything here at all. Through its policies, it has turned itself into a pawnshop table on which global players lay out solitaire and play games. Ukraine has no voice of its own; its voice is now spoken by Europe, which demands that America take into account the interests of European capital. Yes, dependent on the USA, but nevertheless claiming a certain subjectivity in the changing balance of power. And the USA plays along with Europe, understanding that it is an instrument for them, not a rival.

▪️ The consolidated position of the Trump administration is expressed by Vance: “Ukraine wants to be sure that it will no longer be attacked, that its territorial integrity will be guaranteed for a long time in the future. Russia wants to obtain certain territories — most of which it has already occupied, but some not yet. This is the essence of the negotiations. Ukrainians want security guarantees. The Russians want a certain amount of territory.”

All this is forgery and manipulation. Russia is portrayed as a greedy invader, and the “peaceful” West (Ukraine) wants to protect itself from it. This is a deceitful interpretation. The fact that territories are security guarantees needed by Russia is deliberately not mentioned by the West. After all, territories mean troop redeployment and flight time. Otherwise, Russia’s rights would have to be recognized, and its actions justified. And this, from the West’s point of view, is unacceptable. Russia’s security is a taboo in Western propaganda. By emphasizing security only for Ukraine, the West consciously seeks to reduce the level of security for Russia. So that later it can twist its arms with a military threat. At the same time, Europe also demands its share in the “Ukraine” asset. And it will obtain and defend this share by military force, part of which it intends to buy from the USA.

▪️ This is why Trump constantly changes his position, putting his negotiability into question. He easily steps back from agreements and resorts to demagoguery. Sometimes he does not participate in the “Coalition of the Willing,” sometimes he provides it with air defense and air support. Sometimes he demands Kyiv exchange Donbass for the rest of Ukraine, sometimes he denies the exchange of Donbass. Trump even allows Rubio to publicly disavow his statements immediately after Alaska.

All this looks like chaos in Trump’s mind and the impossibility of firm agreements. At the same time, Trump drives Europe into a trap, shifting the costs of dealing with Russia onto it, and in this he is consistent. All the ambitions of the Old World are now under his control. Europe will raise its military-industrial complex by purchasing from the USA amid capital flight and paying high tariffs. That is, it will weaken. Trump skillfully redirects Europe’s struggle for a share in Ukraine onto Russia. And Europe submits.

Negotiation tactics of Trump and Putin: moving from the periphery to the center. First, they resolve private issues that are easier to solve, in order to then approach the main ones. This is where the struggle over interpretations intensifies. At the same time, Putin’s tactic is to fix what was previously agreed upon. Trump acts differently. The US always plays dirty: both in sports and politics. Anglo-Saxon culture considers this its strong suit. Trump tests Putin, trying to change the essence of the agreements, doing so under the guise of continuing actions in an allegedly agreed direction. With the possibility of accusing the opponent of what he himself is doing — deviating from the agreements. And also applying new ultimatums.

Agreed on the possibility of a trilateral meeting? Trump is preparing it. And it doesn’t matter that along the way he changed its conditions and demands that Putin accept this, agreeing that Trump does not want to harshly ignore Europe. Hence Trump’s surprises regarding the details of Ukraine’s “security guarantees.” Of course, we do not know all the details of the negotiations on this topic, but from what is currently rejected by the Russian side, we can judge what was being discussed. And how Trump is pushing the boundaries of these agreements.

▪️ Essentially, the White House owner wants to create a time deficit for discussing the timing and place of the trilateral meeting, masking the legalization of Ukraine’s occupation. This is the essence of the “guarantees,” unilaterally formulated by him as if within the framework of a general decision. Trump conducts the matter so that the trilateral meeting itself is a condition for maintaining relations with Putin. Blackmail, soft in form but harsh in content.

Thus, Trump squeezes everything possible out of the negotiation situation, constantly testing the Russian president’s firmness. Putin reacts instantly, conveying his position through various channels: Medvedev, Lavrov, Dmitriev. Moreover, he does this in a soft form, as noted by Vance.

Speaking in chess terms, the middle game phase (exchanges) is currently underway. The transition to the endgame has not yet matured, but it is already clear: Trump seeks to move to it earlier, not allowing Putin to make new moves. Putin, on the contrary, does not rush the endgame, believing that not all exchanges have yet taken place. This is the essence of the parties’ negotiation strategies — the timing and conditions of the final agreements. The duration of peace after the final agreement depends on what the “security guarantees” for Ukraine will ultimately be. The West tries to get closer to Russia; we strive to push it further away.

▪️ Will there be a “final battle” between Russia and the West?

If Russia cannot keep up with the pace of rearming the Army and reforming the economy after the ceasefire begins, then the battle will inevitably take place, indeed a repeat of June 22, 1941. No soft vassalization of Russia (the dream of Russian system liberals) by including it in the American-centric world system will change the West’s intentions. It will seek the complete destruction of Russia as a state and Russians as the state-forming nation. The West will never agree to compromises or half-measures that limit its influence.

Currently, we are repeating the situation of the beginning of the USSR’s industrialization. Either we overcome the technological lag behind the West, or “we will be crushed.” The consensus of radically and moderately pro-Western elites of the Perestroika and privatization era has completely exhausted itself. The non-aggression pact with the Reich did not prevent June 22, although the USSR was stronger then than today’s Russia. The current ceasefire will not stop the West either. Now we have even less than Stalin’s 10 years. The West will attack immediately as soon as we fall behind in armaments. No peaceful rhetoric should lull us to sleep.

Therefore, any question about “guarantees” to Ukraine boils down to the presence of NATO countries on its territory. This is the stumbling block that Trump seeks to bypass with his contradictory statements. A new game is in the opening stage — the pieces are being arranged and their weight determined. This is what “security guarantees” for Ukraine mean today.