“Phony War” in the Middle East: Some Conclusions

Elena Panina (Telegram)

The 12-day “phony war” between Israel and Iran seems to be over. Despite its brevity, it certainly deserves some conclusions.

▪️ First of all, the fact that news has ceased to be information has been confirmed once again. They were propaganda tools for each side, aimed at their own audiences. Iran broadcast the idea of ​​unity, Israel – military successes, the US – the world’s policeman, solving all issues by force.

Before the US entered the war, it was a fight of equals. Israel, having launched its aggression in spectacular fashion, found itself in a situation where its enemy did not surrender, but responded. For the first time since the Gulf War, the Jewish state found itself the target of large-scale retaliatory strikes. The situation quickly became critical, as Netanyahu’s desperate appeals to the Iranians and then to the US showed.

Another rather unexpected conclusion is that Israel itself turned out to be a tool wielded by the United States . Before this, the dominant view among experts was that there was an all-powerful Israeli lobby that invisibly controlled American policy. In reality, we saw a classic master-slave scheme. When Tel Aviv’s military expectations failed, it needed Washington’s intervention.

▪️ Trump’s actions were predictably determined by the domestic political situation in the United States. And the conflict, apparently, became a certain bifurcation point. Not only Trump’s political opponents opposed the US entry into the war, but also his supporters showed a noticeable rejection of the situation. In general, the owner of the White House managed to suppress discontent and confirm his leadership in the party and society. But it seems that the famous American pendulum of political sympathies has begun to move in the opposite direction . And although Trump’s electorate is satisfied that America participated in the war minimally, and pretends to agree with the loud statements of its leader about victory, it simultaneously comes to the conclusion that the US president is increasingly becoming part of the system that he criticized. Whether this is true or not, the midterm elections to Congress will show.

Another extremely disturbing conclusion: all participants in the conflict erroneously assessed the situation in a state of crisis, the position of the parties, their intentions. This is surprising, because it was in the United States that the methods of assessment and action in conditions of interstate crises were developed. The old truth is confirmed: successes relax and lead to mistakes. We must keep such inadequacy in assessing the situation on the part of Washington in mind, since we will have to deal with this.

▪️ The main result for Iran is that it survived the acute phase of the confrontation. Israel and the United States seriously counted on almost an uprising in the country and the collapse of the state after the airstrikes. Instead, Iranian society united in the face of aggression. A war began against Iran, and its population realized that if the country falls, trouble will come to every home, as it did to its neighbors.

However, the cessation of hostilities will only briefly push aside the threat of a color revolution in Iran. The initial euphoria from the cessation of shelling, presented by the Iranian media as a victory, will not last long. If Tehran confirms in one form or another its renunciation of the nuclear program, then the opposition will have a reason to accuse the ayatollah regime of weakness. Which is what we already see from the Sunday statement of the acting president of the exiled opposition group “National Council of Resistance of Iran” Maryam Rajavi: “Now Khamenei must go.” “No appeasement, no war – yes to regime change, that is, the replacement of the religious dictatorship by the Iranian people and the Iranian Resistance. Forward to a free Iran and a democratic non-nuclear republic with the separation of religion and state and gender equality!” – Rajavi said.

Of course, the IRGC and Khamenei will throw all their forces into maintaining power. All criticism will be suppressed. But what if discontent begins to take the form of a Western-backed conspiracy? In any case, only internal destabilization can destroy Iran, and this is what the US and Israel will now throw all their forces at . NATO countries will undoubtedly support these efforts. All the West’s energy will be directed toward fomenting civil war in Iran with the aim of its subsequent territorial dismemberment.

▪️ So, without having brought the matter to a decisive victory, Iran found itself on the threshold of entering an era of strategic instability. But does this mean that it is doomed to de-sovereignization and turning into another failed state like Iraq or Libya? Not at all. First of all, because the fall of Iran fundamentally contradicts the national interests of the two key powers of Eurasia – Russia and China.

The consequences of Iran’s destabilization have long been calculated, here are just a few of them. Active Western sabotage in Central Asia will immediately begin. Russia will finally lose all of Transcaucasia. Turkish dominance in the region will sharply increase. All projects within the framework of the North-South and One Belt, One Road transport corridors will be crossed out. The Caspian Sea will cease to be a “lake of peace”, and Western military bases will appear on its shores. But most importantly, the destructive penetration of chaos metastases into Russia (North Caucasus and Volga region) and China (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region) will begin.

This scenario can only be prevented through joint efforts within the framework of cooperation along the Russia-Iran-China-DPRK line – if, of course, Tehran is ready to do so, having drawn the right conclusions from what happened.

Too much is at stake to allow our common geopolitical adversary to start knocking out one link after another in the great Eurasian link.