Russia / Ukraine, NATO, West

Comments drawing together the events of the past week. What is real and what is not.

Shortly before a meeting between Russia and Ukraine negotiators in Istanbul on June 2, Ukraine carried out an overnight terrorism attack on May 31. An automotive bridge collapsed in the Bryansk Region. The bridge and a truck driving across it fell on a Klimov-Moscow passenger train. The press service of Moscow Railway said that the incident was caused by “illegal interference” with transport operations. According to regional Governor Alexander Bogomaz, over 100 people were injured and seven died in the accident.

Another railway bridge was blown up in the Zheleznogorsky District of the Kursk Region around 3 a.m. local time (12 a.m. GMT) on June 1, with the train falling onto a highway. On instructions from Russia’s Investigative Committee Chairman Alexander Bastrykin, the criminal cases on the incidents in the Bryansk and Kursk regions have been handed over to the agency’s Main Investigative Directorate.

Following was an attack (drones mainly) on Russian airfields, Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions. The attacks in the Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions were repelled. Several aircraft caught fire as a result of the attacks, but all fires were extinguished. According to the Russian Defense Ministry there were no casualties among military personnel or civilian personnel. Some suspects involved in the terrorist attacks have been detained and as issues became clearer some of the airplanes were decommissioned and ready for scrap. The best number that I can find is that 4 working aircraft were damaged but all are repairable.

The Russian authorities were very quiet but the main negotiator for the Istanbul talks notified that these attacks will be discussed after the talks.

The talks took place, mainly technical and agreements on exchanges of military and civilians were reached. In the last hours, Ukraine did not arrive at the exchange venue to implement the exchange. Will there be any more discussions, the next scheduled for June 20?

After the talks, Russian authorities remained quiet for a day. Then Mr Putin spoke and said that Ukraine is now nearly a terrorist organization, as well as those that support it in its deeds. Slowly the rest of Russia’s diplomatic corps and State Duma started making comments in line with Mr Putin. It is clear from here that the SMO will change in its nature. We heard that Russia as a whole was simmering with anger and calls went out for the Orshniks to fly. The talking netizens started speaking, panicking and pumping up the volume of fear, even the more pragmatic brought and bought this message.

Commentators were clearly very scared (I should say nervous, but they were scared), as the attack on airfields and nuclear bomber aircraft was an attack on Russia’s nuclear triad. It is not a question of how much damage was done, but a question of what was attacked.  Even more important, though, is the WHO?  Ryabkov called on Washington and London specifically to speak up on the attack on Russian airfields.  “We demand that both London and Washington respond in a manner that stops this recent round of escalation of tensions.” There were many videos and discussions on how Russia is infiltrated and how dangerous the circumstances are. Clear questions were raised about whether Russia can withstand this and similar attacks. This is a no-brainer. Yes, Russia can withstand this and similar attacks. The citizenry trusts their military leaders, but more than that, they trust Mr Putin.  The Russians will fight, as it is said that 40,000 per month are calling in and offering to be soldiers.

Russia played it cool. A day went by. The hysteria on the net increased.

The transition of the SMO to a possible Anti-Terror Operation is not yet formal. Formalizing this will change the type of war being fought. We can speculate, but it is better to look at the reality.

The night before last, this change was visible in Russia’s attack on Ukraine. For the first time, missiles (or drones) struck venues where soldiers were present, but also Ukrainian civilians, and the strikes were deep westward, right into Lviv. Last night, Russia carried out a further furious attack. “The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out group strikes by high-precision long-range weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles at the Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, workshops manufacturing strike unmanned aerial vehicles, maintenance, weapons and hardware repairing centres as well as ammunition depots of the AFU.” Sumy is now within a few miles of Russian forces, and last night, Kharkov was the aim of a number of missiles. Sumy oblast and Kharkov was not in the line-up of areas that Russia had on their list of requirements for peace at the talks in Istanbul. This lineup was: commencement of complete withdrawal of the AFU and other Ukrainian paramilitary formations from the territory of the Russian Federation, including the DPR, LPR, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and their pullback from the borders of the Russian Federation to a distance agreed upon by the Parties, in accordance with Provisions to be approved.

Further afield, NATO is still barking, with no ability to bite, yet it is clear that war is being prepared for. It will take years for NATO forces to build up their weaponry and personnel.

What is so noticeable here is that with the two major wars that we have, both sets of antagonists are the same people, and both sets of antagonists bargain on the US coming to help them with their war and both sets of antagonists are working with proxies to make their war for them. In West Asia, Israel is still begging for help to start a war against Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine, this very same set of antagonists is hoping the US will still help in the battle against Russia.

The theme of the day is war. Russia knows it, you and I know it, Iran knows it, and China knows it.

The question is HOW?

We will have to wait a little longer for Russia. Militarily, on the aspect of the SMO, there is a clear change, but it is only for two days. Furthermore, there is an increase in what Martyanov refers to as the operational tempo. And what does it mean for the SMO if it is de jure changed into a war on terrorism?

We are still hoping that Russia and China can keep us out of Big Big war. The time, however, is now. If the world waits for NATO to build up materiel and forces, we get deeper into trouble. Do read or listen to Michael Hudson and Richard Wolf as to why the US economic strategy will fail. So, if all else fails, it is said: They take us to war. It is dangerous times, but not because Ukraine droned Russian airfields.