The Scenarios

The scenarios below are, unfortunately, all possibilities for our near future. They have sprung from my imagination. It is not meant to scare people, but sticking your head in the sand won’t solve anything either. I am not an expert in this area; have not even served in the military. I do worry; because the West lives under the assumption that it can still do what it wants and still win against the Global South. That is a miscalculation, but there is no reasoning with idealists.

The Global South faces a difficult task. How long do you wait until the inevitable point when you have to intervene anyway? I don’t know. On the one hand I am afraid that intervening will lead to WW3, but on the other hand I also think that waiting to intervene will also lead to WW3. Maybe the way forward is the best way to prevent WW3. Fortunately that choice does not lie with me. If anyone can make that choice best, I feel it is Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi. I trust in that, then.

1. Israel bombs Iran

Israel feels supreme because they can continue their genocide in Gaza and the West Bank unhindered. The West continues to provide them with military resources and the Global South is silent while the UN is powerless. In this situation, Israel believes the time is ripe for a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s military bases and nuclear facilities. Israel assumes that the West with the US in the lead will then take their side and also participate in a subsequent blitz krieg to completely destroy Iran.

1a. The attack succeeds

Just as Syria fell in a short time, Iran can also disintegrate in a short time. Whether and how quickly Iran can then rise again will depend completely on its population. If the population is homogeneous and fully behind the leaders, then Iran can turn in on itself and start building from scratch. If the population is divided and not massively behind the elite, then the situation will be similar to that of Iraq and Libya, for example. In this scenario, however, Iran is eliminated and it depends on Israel how far it wants to go.

1b. The attack partially succeeds

Only a few targets are hit and Iran is able to fight back. Much will then depend on what Iran will do. If Iran maintains its current course of action and chooses to do little in return, then the situation is likely to escalate further into full-scale war (see further 1d). If, however, Iran chooses to go to maximum effort immediately, it could completely destroy Israel in a matter of days (see further 1e).

1c. The attack is answered pre-emptively

When Iran has prior knowledge of an attack by Israel, it has the choice to attack pre-emptively itself. Again, the choice is to deploy such a preemptive attack minimally or maximally. Minimal most likely means complete war (see further 1d). Maximum means complete destruction of Israel (see further 1e).

1d. Skirmishes lead to full-scale war

If Israel fails to carry out the first attack successfully and Iran responds as it has so far with minimal engagement, tensions do rise to the point where it will most likely turn into full-scale war. How it will turn out then depends mainly on the involvement of the U.S. and Russia. If the US and Russia remain relatively aloof, Iran will be able to overcome Israel in the foreseeable future. When the U.S. fully engages with Israel, then Iran will have a tough time. Iran can do a lot of damage, but ultimately will not be able to beat Israel and the U.S. together. If, on the other hand, Russia sides with Iran, then WW3 will be a reality.

1e. Iran destroys Israel

Iran is capable of wiping Israel off the map in a matter of days. The West will of course respond to this, but by then it will be too late for Israel. In this scenario, of course, many Palestinians and Arabs will also fall victim to Iranian bombing, because they are also present in Israeli cities. The US will attack Iran and then it depends again on Russia whether it will lead to the fall of Iran or WW3.

2. US installs troops on Taiwan

The elite in Taiwan is under the influence of the West and is bent on gaining independence from China. The US and the West are talking China’s mouth off when it says it respects the Chinese position of “One China,” but then acts as if Taiwan is its own state separate from China. There is a good chance that the US will want to install active troops on Taiwan and that the elite in Taiwan will want to declare independence with US and Western support. At that point, China will be faced with the choice of whether to accept this red line as well or finally have enough.

2a. China also swallows this red line and sticks to threats

Avoiding conflict when it is not necessary to get your way in the long run is China’s often wise choice. However, here we also see the other side exercising patience and moving little by little toward their desired outcome. One China so far has only moved further away and exposed the Taiwanese people to Western propaganda. In this scenario, there is very little chance that Taiwan will ever fully rejoin China. It is even more likely that other parts will want to split from China as well.

2b. China puts its money where its mouth is

Enough is enough and China violently conquers Taiwan and expels the US from the island. If this is done in time, then the damage will not be too bad. If China waits a long time for even more military resources to be delivered from the West, the damage will be many times greater with many more casualties. The longer the conflict lasts and the more casualties occur, the harder China will have it with the Taiwanese people. Also, the West will be more likely to participate if the conflict lasts longer. However, China will succeed in conquering Taiwan regardless.

2c. China no longer waits and intervenes pre-emptively

When it is clear that things are not changing or continue to move in the wrong direction, a scenario emerges that calls for intervention. Why wait until Taiwan has more military resources and active troops on the island. If China chooses to conquer Taiwan in a short time it will succeed with minimal damage to both sides. The US and the West can only stand by and condemn it, but that will be all. Sanctions are all they can do, but given its economic situation, China need not fear them. On the contrary, even these sanctions will be counterproductive.

3. German troops on the ground in Ukraine

It says “German,” but it could just as easily be French, British or American troops. However, Germany is now giving Ukraine permission to use their Taurus missiles to attack civilian targets and Moscow. Russia has been facing the choice of balancing their strategy with their red lines for three years. Strategically, step by step, the set goals are outlined and achieved. That strategy is now really challenged by possible hundreds and thousands of Russian civilian casualties. That red line requires that the gloves really come off.

3a. Russia waits too long to see what happens

A German Taurus missile comes down in central Moscow resulting in several hundred dead civilian casualties. Russia can now do nothing but declare war on Ukraine and bring it completely to its knees. By waiting (too) long, the West has become actively involved against the adopted strategy and Russia is now faced with the choice of actively fighting the West after all.

3b. Russia forces Ukraine to its knees in time

Now that it is known that the West will go further and further, eventually even delivering nuclear bombs to Ukraine as well as putting active troops on the ground, in this scenario Russia may choose to go full-on “pre-emptive” now. This rides roughshod over the current strategy, but potentially avoids many Russian civilian casualties. It will be a race against time, but may also be the scenario that had to happen sometime.

3c. Russia quickly succeeds in winning

If Russia quickly succeeds in getting Ukraine to surrender, then the West faces a difficult choice to still choose WW3. Fighting a proxy war is a lot easier than having to deliberately choose nuclear war. There is quite a chance that the West will then choose to condemn without active conflict. Especially since the US and EU are not on the same page and there are so many divisions within the EU as well. No EU country will want to be the first to get a nuclear bomb on their capital.

3d. Russia should also start fighting NATO in Ukraine

If Russia wants to maintain the current strategy and thinks it can take longer to achieve the SMO’s goals in Ukraine, eventually NATO will gain more and more momentum to actively participate resulting in WW3. Eventually it will escalate further and further to the inevitable.

3e. Russia conducts a rock-solid preventive action

In this scenario, Russia chooses to take pre-emptive action that shakes the world to its foundations. At once, it becomes clear that the gloves are off and Russia is not to be trifled with. This could include several very drastic actions, such as a tactical nuclear bomb on Lviv, taking out the entire Ukrainian government at once, largely destroying Western military satellites or flattening factories and installations for Taurus missiles in Germany. Also possible is an intended declaration of war on Germany that would be triggered if a Taurus missile hits civilian targets and Moscow. It is uncertain how the West will respond, but the question is whether this scenario can be avoided at all given the West’s course of action.

There are bound to be other scenarios. Branches and mixes. I think the big picture is especially important. Do you also see that big picture?

Nico Cost