Speaking about Russia, the SMO and Winning

Larchmonter posted a comment on Smoothie’s site and has given me permission to repost it here. First, I agree with him. Second, nothing here is at all critical of Smoothie. Then, the context in which this comment is made is not essential for this discussion. The post is here: http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/04/glenn-diesen-and-yours-truly.html#disqus_thread

Larchmonter writes:

War is politics by other means. The goals of the SMO were Political. From what we see, those core issues are not completed. They are near for the military. But we know the SMO has begun to turn into a Terror war by Ukraine. And the SMO in some places turned into a CTO. Then there is nazism. It is far from destroyed.

So, I don’t see how the War is Won. Zhukov is still at the Oder. Berlin is four months away. And the commitment from Stalin was to take Berlin. Presently, Gerasimov is at the Dneiper. We have no sense of a strategy to take anything, merely to grind the enemy. Can anything stop the Russians? No. We see they have broken the military of the proxies (Ukraine and NATO). Russian can do as it wishes.

However, the goals have not been met as yet. It appears, politics by other means could mean not military but diplomacy, economics, geopolitical alignments, counter-terrorism, disintegration of Ukraine dispersed into four neighboring nations. All of which requires more war until matters are actuated in place.

and then later he writes:

The idea is to get some discussion of the other means that may come into play.

I’d like his (Smoothie’s) take and other cogent thinking on the specifics.

He may tell me to stand in the corner or not to answer.

I know what he has stated, I just don’t see a sudden stop or that it is ‘won’.
If Russia was masterful in media and the world understood what has transpired, that would be different.

Without achieving the goals, how is that winning?

I don’t see how the War is Won. If a war is won politically, this war is not won. We are 3+ years in (February 2022), and this war is continuing militarily. A war is won when the political objectives are reached and the weapons are silenced – usually in that order. So militarily, Russia is still fighting, and the butcher bill is still adding up daily, the drones are still flying daily, and fierce battles are still being fought.

The first and most crucial objective (arguably) was to get Ukraine to commit to a non-nazi administration and leadership.  All we have seen is the growth of nazism, although I cannot define if the depth and depravity of the nazi ideology were uncovered, and I did not know the extent of it, or whether it grew during the time.

Mr Lavrov states: What is there behind this? Germany is undoubtedly out to regain its erstwhile grandeur, with the old Nazi instincts breaking out at the genetic level as something that might come in handy in this regard.  As for the rest of European countries, some of them want to finally delete from history the pages of their national disgrace, collaborationism and connivance at the Nazis, while others regard the Nazi ideology as a new tool for keeping their positions on the European political scene. We will fight this.   … half of Europe or even the whole of Europe would again be collected under the standard of Nazism and neo-Nazism and committed against our country, as, properly speaking, it is happening today.

The second most important objective was a new security architecture as a result of NATO expansion to the East.  There is no sign of this objective being met.  On the contrary, all of the European poodles are NATO-ITES.

The third most important objective was the existence of NATO itself.  Those of us who watch the East know that NATO is not dead.  It may be a joke, but it is not dead.

We have no idea what Russia’s current short-term or longer term objectives are.  Militarily, they are (given some territory) where they need to be with the Donbas areas in Russian hands.  It is said that Russia demolished at least four combined arms militaries.  But weapons and fighters are still streaming into Ukraine.  Russian soldiers are still dying for the SMO.

The US ‘cease-fire’ is a worthless effort, although Russia is using it to re-establish diplomatic and consular work.  (Russia is also inviting US investment, and even here, it is opaque.  Are they using this as a pretext to make sanctions go away?  Or perhaps to buy time until a different economic model in the world is more established?)

I don’t need to say too much more; we all know this. In my view, the only current creation of the SMO (separate from Russia’s military mastery, astonishing weaponry, and financial and economic growth) is that Ukraine is now somewhat of a second ISIS, given Ukrainian actions in Africa.

I don’t see progress on a new security architecture. NATO is still howling at the moon, and the US has just announced that it actually likes NATO and will stay.   I don’t see any progress on the eradication of nazi ideology, and the talk of a Ukrainian election is gaslighting as such an election would be.

The sheer idiocy of Europe bears no discussion.  Yet, the objective of making war against Russia is strong in the blood of these pirates.  They are raiding citizen piggy banks to pay for something.

Russia is united, and that statement can even be couched.  There are problems, but there is time for them to be resolved.  (Some hints:   Ask yourself what exactly the man called Dugin is doing in relation to BRICS?  As I said, there is time.  Ask yourself what exactly is South Africa’s ANC doing in relation to BRICS?)

In conclusion, all I see is that Ukraine is now part of the perpetual war, and from this perspective, Russia wins militarily and loses politically and diplomatically at this moment.  If this SMO continues on the political axis, the physical war making will continue.  This is a millstone tied firmly around the Russian foot in relation to the world.  Something has to give, and all we have at the moment is the continual SMO grind.  We cannot say Russia has won.