Two Majors SMO Summary

Published on The Islander

Ed Note: Toward the end of this summary, the writers consider that Ukraine still has some strength (not a lot, but as we know, they are being artificially strengthened). This is somewhat contrary to the usual ‘Russia has already won’ brigade, or the ‘Ukraine is in tatters’. This may be true, but we still have a kinetic war going on. We do not see as a rule comments such as: “Nevertheless, prolonging the conflict will require new efforts from Russia, including improving the system of troop command and supply, as well as upgrading weapons and equipment, since Western countries and their minions continue military preparations and testing new types of weapons at the Ukrainian training ground.”

This SMO will be won or lost when the shooting stops. I, for one, am weary of overblown statements that “Russia has already won.” We are in a different kind of war, and we should comport ourselves with understanding the complete theater of war. Ukraine is one salient in the western urge to own the world.

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▪️ The past week and the meeting of NATO defense ministers in the Ramstein format clearly showed that it is too early to talk about an actual reduction in the level of military-technical assistance to Ukraine. In the last days of Biden’s term, the US also intensively allocated funds to support the AFU, trying to create conditions for prolonging Kiev’s actions to exhaust Russia’s military and economic resources. Zelensky, trying to please various forces, simultaneously declared the need to achieve peace in 2025 and sent attack UAVs to strike Russian energy facilities.

▪️ The AFU at the front, despite maintaining combat stability and the ability to conduct organized defensive battles, are increasingly faced with the problem of a shortage of personnel and a low level of morale and psychological state of their forcibly mobilized troops. This is evidenced by the multiple increase in the number of criminal cases initiated for SOC, mass interdepartmental raids on organizers of evasion in service in Ukraine, scandals with desertion of the AFU trained abroad.

▪️ Nevertheless, it is too early to talk about the collapse of the AFU’ defense at the front, despite the Russian Army maintaining the initiative throughout its entire length.

▪️ Thus, in the Kursk region, the enemy is conducting intensive counter-actions in order to slow down our advance in the region. The Russian Armed Forces have advanced in heavy, heavy battles on the northern ledge near Pogrebki and Novaya Sorochina, Kruglenky, Malaya Loknya, are advancing south from Russkoye Porechny, and are breaking through to Sudzha along the shortest route through Makhnovka. At the same time, the enemy maintains a large group in the Sumy region, from which it transfers reserves to the LBS and tries to localize our advance. On the ground, our troops are preparing for another politically motivated attack by the enemy in the last days before Trump takes office.

▪️ The control of the Russian Armed Forces on the right bank of the Oskol River north of Kupyansk in Dvurechnaya is gradually expanding. In Chasov Yar, around the refractory plant, the enemy’s approaches to the facility are blocked. The most difficult assault on Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) is nearing completion but the enemy stubbornly clings to the remaining positions. Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) The Russian Army is trying to deprive the supply routes from the southwest, to the east of the city, the Russian Armed Forces were moving towards the highway to Konstantinovka. After the liberation of Kurakhovo, our troops are creating conditions for closing the “pocket” south of the city, in the northwest the offensive and liberation of villages continues. The situation of the AFU in Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novosyolka is deteriorating, the enemy garrison is holding the defense on the approaches to the village, the Russian Armed Forces are having tactical successes, consolidating their positions. The Zaporozhye Front and the Kherson direction, without significant changes; the situation is characterized by mutual attacks by both sides on each other’s positions.

▪️ More data is coming in from the Black Sea about the expansion of the enemy’s MBEC nomenclature, which has gone from “kamikaze boats” to various platforms with MLRS guides, machine gun turrets, air defense systems and launch containers for attack FPV drones. The enemy’s development of a whole range of such sea drones, which, as part of a combat formation, solve various tasks on the water, is a new challenge for the Russian Navy and requires the earliest possible adoption of new systemic solutions, since the enemy has found effective means to combat our countermeasures.

▪️ The coming week will be the last one before Trump’s inauguration. It is not without reason that our military command expects politically motivated actions by the AFU, only on a larger scale than it was on January 5-6 in the Kursk region. The transformation of Trump’s statements and his team’s plans to facilitate the settlement of the conflict is indicative: from a day to 100 days/six months. At the same time, if the United States is in full control of all decisions in Kiev, then Washington has practically no levers of influence on Moscow.

✨Thus, the Russian Army maintains the strategic initiative at the front, and only this allows politicians to take a “strong position” on the foreign policy track. At the same time, Kiev’s attempts to make further populist steps on the LBS are not excluded, which will again cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces dearly in terms of personnel costs. Nevertheless, prolonging the conflict will require new efforts from Russia, including improving the system of troop command and supply, as well as upgrading weapons and equipment , since Western countries and their minions continue military preparations and testing new types of weapons at the Ukrainian training ground .