Ceasefire: Israel – Lebanon (Update .. Update 2)

Benjamin Netanyahu and Anthony Blinken have announced this. As it stands now, this ceasefire will go into effect at 10 a.m. tomorrow, Israel time.

There are more questions than answers. There is no definitive word from Hezbollah yet. Hamas announced that Hezbollah assisted them like brothers, and they support this. But, there is no announcement on Gaza.

There is no announcement from Hezbollah at the time of writing.

Blinken made a series of statements saying that this ceasefire will help Gaza, they just need to get Hamas out of there.

US Secretary of State Blinken:

– We are in the final stages of finalizing a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.

– I believe that calming tensions in the region can end the ‘conflict’ in Gaza.

– We are committed to working with the Trump administration on a ceasefire in Gaza

The US and France are expected to make a statement in an hour from now.  Apparently Joe Biden himself is being prepared to make this announcement.

Netanyahu admits lack of weapons as one of the reasons behind accepting the ceasefire in Lebanon.  He also says that the reasons for the ceasefire are to focus on the threat of Iran, revitalize the army, isolate Hamas, and separate military arenas.

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah: Israeli military suffers historic failure in ground aggression against Lebanon.  Hezbollah forces managed to destroy Israeli tanks in Khiam, and to reinforce their own positions.  MP Hassan Fadlallah: Israeli troops tried but failed to cross Litani river, forced to retreat after taking pictures.

Some israeli commentary:

Some things to consider as the ceasefire approaches:

1️⃣ This is not what Israel wants. It is the result of massive American pressure.

2️⃣ This is also bad for Lebanon. Hezbollah has ruined that country, and Israel’s offensive had brought Lebanon very close to a strategic turnaround. Then the Biden Admin stepped in and saved Hezbollah.

3️⃣ There’s a difference between the appearance of security and real security. Which is why even with the ceasefire in place, the residents of northern Israel won’t be returning to their homes until at least next summer.

At this moment, israeli forces carry out more air attacks on Lebanon’s capital after killing at least 31 people in 24 hours there. Hezbollah also resumes rocket fire on Israel.

Al Mayadeen has a running update here:  https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews

Let several hours pass, and the situation will clarify or the war will start again.  What it looks like now, is that the US forced a statement of ceasefire from Netanyahu (I have not seen the Lebanese statement yet) to force Bibi Netanyahu into a statement of the ceasefire, to turn back to Hamas and Iran and to save BIBI’s seating end because israel is losing spectacularly.  But as I said yesterday on the dedicated thread, and as AHH said, there is a particularly foul odor here.  Look closely at the three reasons Netanyahu gave for a ceasefire:

1 – To focus on the Iranian threat.

2- To refresh the army forces and resupply.

3- To disconnect the fronts, and isolate Hamas.

Apparently, and nobody really knows, this is a temporary ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.  That resolution is old and the situation on the ground has changed materially.  Perhaps if there is a real ceasefire, one would expect that the conditions will be published.

Ceasefire?  Yeah Right!

Update 1:

Joe Biden:

🔺 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire to come into effect at 4 AM local time.

🔺 There will be another push next week to bring Israel’s Gaza onslaught to an end

He also said that this is not a 60-day ceasefire as reported, but a permanent ceasefire.

Trump’s campaign

🔺 The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon was a result of Trump’s election victory, Times of Israel reports.

🔺 “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos will not be tolerated. I am pleased to see concrete steps toward de-escalation in the Middle East,” said Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor.

Agreement:

There is an agreement that is published in the israeli media, but I don’t trust it, as there already is controversy in that the Lebanese say the document that they received is not the same document that was agreed to.  So, we hold off on this one for a moment.  In addition, it is not stated which media.

Lebanese MP Fadlallah told Al-Mayadeen:  The ceasefire letter that reached us in Lebanon is not the same as the one that is being released to the public by Israel.

Hezbollah:

Nothing clear or definitive yet.   The Israeli cabinet agreed to a ceasefire deal, but a senior Hezbollah official announced that they’re going to examine the deal “Israel” agreed to before the Lebanese Government officially approves it as they do not trust Netanyahu.

The War:

Continues – …. 20, 21 … 25, 26

It feels like watching a very badly scripted theater production.

Update 2

Ceasefire is supposed to be taking effect now at 4am local time.  We will see if the bombing stops.

Update 3

This is the good part although very fragile.

We need to rejoice for the citizens of Lebanon, although it does not feel like a victory.

Why!

The israeli air bombardment on Lebanon has ceased in the main since violent strikes before the hour of 4 am were upon us.   The israeli attempts to get boots on the ground in Lebanon have failed and miserably so.  Hezbollah has won.  In reality, the zionist entity raised the white flag.  The citizens of Lebanon are on their way back to their homes to reconstruct their lives in the south.

Bibi Netanyahu keeps spouting about 1) pie in the sky on Iran, 2) they are now going to eventually and surely deal with Hamas (isolate the fronts he says) and 3) the IDF soldiers will rest and recover.

The zionists did not meet even one of their war objectives.  Their Big Daddy saved them and the ceasefire, or cessation of hostilities is nothing less than suing for peace.

The war loss is so grand, that even hacking made the zionist entity fall a little lower.  Handala hacking group have forced the Mossad’s Unit 8200 to close the offices of its biggest cover company, Silicom, in occupied Palestine, the US and Denmark, due to continuous and fatal cyber attacks by the Iranian group – the last of which was the cyber “Operation Yahya Sinwar”.  The role of Handala in this war is not given enough attention, but against an enemy whose history depends on spying and intelligence – by the world’s most feared intelligence agency that is now made rookie-like, is one of the biggest roles

Note, that the residents of Lebanon are going back.  These residents of Lebanon include Hezbollah forces and supporters.  The residents of israel in the north cannot go back to their illegal settlements.  This is slowly sinking in for the average Israeli.  Their anger, because Netanyahu has ‘deprived’ them of victory, is sinking in.  The cope is strong as they realize that their casualty numbers are much higher than thought or reported.  Cope and seethe is the order of the day.

The US has saved Bibi from himself momentarily and saved their own ambitions .. for now.  All is very fragile.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has just called on all the Lebanese to return to their homes, including those who have fled to countries such as Syria

It is step one of a massive defeat for the zionists, as they could not prevail against Hezbollah and they still have not prevailed against Hamas.  There is still the Iranian retribution on the table.

We do not know enough about the actual agreement.

Reporters say it is a return to status quo ante.  It is so much more than that.  The israeli forces, despite their overwhelming air superiority, proved to be but non-serious mamma’s boy soldiers that could prevail only over children and women and commit suicide in droves.  The myth of the IDF military has been shattered.  They have been emasculated in front of the whole world.  Politically israel is flatter than a cockroach, known over the world as genocidaires.  Netanyahu cannot visit most of the rest of the world.

The gossip mill states that the agreement, which we have not seen reliably, made provision for Gaza.  That is probably why we have not seen it, as Bibi tries to save some face.

We await a formal statement from Hezbollah.

Now let us talk about Gaza.  Hezbollah will not abandon Gaza.  In addition, Ansar Allah (the Houthis) will not abandon Gaza.  And, the Syrians and the Iraqis will not abandon Gaza.  The Iranians will not abandon Gaza.  The resistance will change.

There are five more ‘Hezbollahs’ borne.

Israel now must move into a big concentration camp, while the rest of Palestine will move out into massive reconstruction, and receive Statehood eventually, whether a two-state solution or not.

The secretary general of the Gaza Strip-based Palestinian resistance movement of the Islamic Jihad pledges continued unity among various factions of the regional Axis of Resistance, including his movement and its Lebanese counterpart, Hezbollah

Trump is a loose cannon here and we will have to see.  His future leadership claims victory for Trump, can you believe it?  Mike Waltz, the future national security adviser, said that the parties decided to make peace because of the Republican’s “resounding victory” in the election, which “sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos will not be tolerated.”  There is the concept of stolen valor and this is a fine example of the concept.

Marwa Osman says:  “We are returning O’ Khiam” ❤️‍🩹

Within less than 24 hours, Lebanese civilians have entered Khiyam, Kfar Kila, Ayta Al Shaab, Aytaroun, and many other ‘frontline’ cities with direct IDF presence.

Some of these towns never fell to the IDF, but even the IDF positions on their outskirts are now either paralyzed or abandoned already.

Israel had 60 days to withdraw. The Lebanese forced their hand within a day. They disobeyed any orders and are in the process of going back to their homes. Meanwhile, the IDF: ‘People cannot return to the North (Galilee) in the next few months’, or ever.  The Lebanese citizens are walking in among remnants of the IDF and tearing down any israeli flag while mocking what remains of the IDF sitting in their tanks while waiting for orders to withdraw already.

We need to rejoice for the citizens of Lebanon because this is a victory.